The recent Gaza ceasefire agreement between the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) and the Israeli occupation marked a long-awaited moment for Gaza — a battered land that has endured two years of relentless war, devastation, and genocide.
While the truce has offered a glimmer of relief for Gaza’s 2.3 million Palestinians — exhausted by siege, hunger, and destruction — analysts warn that it is insufficient on its own to lift the Strip out of crisis. Its success depends on strict political commitment and continuous external engagement, as the agreement does not address the root causes of the conflict.
Observers have outlined multiple possible outcomes: the agreement may stall in its early stages, face continued Israeli violations under limited escalation, or collapse entirely if regional and international actors fail to safeguard it.
The truce, officially brokered on 11 October 2025, followed two years of unprecedented Israeli aggression against Gaza. It emerged amid rising geopolitical tensions, with U.S. President Donald Trump leading intensive diplomatic efforts, while Egypt hosted the negotiations that eventually yielded the accord.
Despite international praise, the first days of the ceasefire witnessed Israeli field violations that claimed several Palestinian lives — casting doubt over the deal’s longevity and the ability of mediators to prevent yet another cycle of destruction.
Conditions for a Lasting Ceasefire
Experts interviewed by Al Jazeera Net identified several conditions necessary for the truce to endure:
- Active U.S. involvement and sustained political and economic pressure on Israel.
- International monitoring and immediate intervention in case of obstruction.
- Swift humanitarian aid delivery and Israel’s withdrawal from the specified areas.
- Rejection of foreign trusteeship and recognition of the resistance’s administrative role during the transitional phase.
- Ending internal Palestinian division, reintegrating Gaza with the West Bank, and halting the policy of imposed realities.
Analysts foresee several scenarios:
- A fragile calm with ongoing Israeli breaches.
- Stagnation at the initial phase, prolonging Gaza’s humanitarian and political crises.
- Renewed fighting if mediators fail to enforce the deal.
- Attempts to build a selective “development model” under occupation while marginalising the resistance.
- Slow, conditional progress, dependent on shifts in Israel’s domestic and regional politics.
The Circumstances Behind the Truce
The ceasefire emerged amid catastrophic humanitarian conditions and mounting international pressure to halt the Israeli killing machine that ravaged Gaza for two years.
More than 70,000 Palestinians were martyred and 170,000 injured, while the UN reported that health and food systems reached famine levels.
A report by the International Crisis Group titled “Ceasefire in Gaza Is Vital, but It’s Only the Beginning” revealed that the immediate trigger for the truce was the Israeli airstrike on 9 September 2025 targeting Hamas negotiators meeting in Doha.
The attempted assassination enraged Qatar and other Gulf states, prompting them to unite with Egypt and Turkey in a diplomatic effort to halt Israel’s aggression, which had become intolerable to the peoples of the region.
According to Areeb al-Rantawi, Director of the Jerusalem Center for Political Studies, the deal’s success depends on active and strict mediation:
“Without U.S. engagement and Arab-Turkish pressure, this ceasefire would never have happened. Its survival now depends on close monitoring and rapid intervention against any Israeli attempt to empty it of substance.”
The Crisis Group report echoed this warning, explaining that the truce was not the product of mutual agreement but of Trump’s pressure on both parties and on mediators to bridge irreconcilable positions — which explains both its achievement and its fragility.
Political scientist Mohammed Ghazi al-Jammal added that the ceasefire came after all sides recognised the futility of continued warfare:
“The resistance sought to protect its people from annihilation, while Washington wanted a political accomplishment to relieve pressure on its allies. Israel, however, remains unwilling to pursue any genuine settlement.”
European affairs analyst Hussam Shaker agreed, noting that while all parties needed a pause in bloodshed, Israel views the truce as a tactical breather, not a step toward peace.
“Past experience shows Israel’s readiness to circumvent any agreement once circumstances or alliances shift,” he said.
What the Ceasefire Needs to Succeed
Most experts stress that sustaining the truce requires serious political will, field compliance, and international accountability to counter predictable Israeli manoeuvres.
Yet the Crisis Group cautioned that, despite widespread relief, the deal lacks strong enforcement mechanisms and binding guarantees, leaving it vulnerable to stagnation or reversal.
The report emphasised that the ceasefire must not remain a temporary pause, but evolve into a politically sustained process backed by continued diplomacy — particularly from the U.S., Arab, and Turkish mediators — to achieve real stability and reconstruction.
Al-Rantawi underscored the same point:
“Success requires genuine U.S. oversight and coordination with Arab and Turkish partners. Netanyahu’s far-right government is searching for loopholes to undermine the deal, so aid must flow smoothly and without delay.”
Israeli affairs expert Imad Abu Awwad added:
“Any attempt to impose foreign trusteeship or exclude Palestinian forces will fail. Palestinians must be at the centre of governance in Gaza; external control will only perpetuate instability.”
He emphasised the immediate implementation of humanitarian aid, reconstruction, and the reopening of the Rafah Crossing, warning that prolonged delays would lead to renewed instability and popular backlash against the occupation.
Shaker also highlighted the mediators’ responsibility:
“Arab and regional intermediaries are now under real test — they must pressure both Israel and the U.S. to deliver on aid, crossings, and reconstruction.”
Al-Jammal concluded that real progress depends on a transformation in the political environment within Israel and internationally.
Otherwise, Gaza will remain trapped in a slow erosion of hope.
Possible Outcomes of the Ceasefire
The future of the agreement depends on power balances, international pressure, and the effectiveness of security guarantees — all of which are in flux. The deal could either endure and lay the groundwork for a new political phase in Gaza, or collapse, reviving the spectre of genocide once again.
Al-Jammal warned that the most likely outcome is a stalled first phase:
“Israel rejects any permanent international presence that might restrict its intervention. We may see a repetition of Lebanon’s experience — a fragile calm with endless breaches.”
The Crisis Group concurred, predicting a managed crisis rather than a resolution: limited aid, partial relief, but no lasting settlement or clarity on Gaza’s political future.
It also warned that excluding Palestinians from governance and reconstruction could worsen division — especially if Israel enforces its ‘Rafah-First Model’, developing select areas outside resistance control while marginalising the rest of the Strip.
Al-Rantawi echoed this fear:
“Israel may create showcase zones in Rafah to promote the illusion that prosperity requires abandoning resistance. This will deepen division and intensify pressure on Gaza.”
Shaker added that the later stages of the truce contain embedded pitfalls, and that prolonging them serves Israel’s interests — particularly in forming an international authority to manage Gaza apart from its people.
Abu Awwad predicted a stalemate with slow progress:
“We may not return to genocide, but we won’t advance quickly either. Every side prefers this: the resistance avoids another war, and Israel slows implementation while focusing on elections.”
Gaza Between Hope and Betrayal
After two years of one of the most brutal assaults in Gaza’s history, the Strip remains under siege, scarred by wounds and displacement since 7 October 2023 — with over 70,000 martyrs, 170,000 injured, and near-total destruction of infrastructure.
Between a ceasefire burdened by Israeli violations and scenarios ranging from paralysis to renewed war, the future of Gaza’s truce rests on international and regional will — and on firm pressure on Israel to finally end its aggression.
Only then might Gaza glimpse a genuine chance at life, reconstruction, and dignity.
