Israeli security officials claim to have recently detected signs that Hamas is renewing preparations for a possible new round of fighting in the Gaza Strip, alongside concerns over potential attacks on other fronts. At the same time, Israel and the United States are monitoring the possibility of a surprise Iranian move targeting Israeli and American forces in the region.
Yoni Ben Menachem, an Israeli Middle East analyst and researcher at the Jerusalem Centre for Foreign Affairs and Security, said the Israeli security establishment is monitoring what it considers an emerging pattern involving armed groups potentially attempting to capture soldiers on several fronts simultaneously.
According to Ben Menachem, the scenarios under consideration involve Lebanon, Gaza, the occupied West Bank and Syria.
As reported by the Israeli newspaper Maariv, Ben Menachem said the issue was discussed during a meeting of Israel’s political-security cabinet, where Shin Bet chief David Zini addressed preparations for a possible multi-front soldier abduction scenario.
Gaza Identified as the Most Sensitive Front
Ben Menachem identified the Gaza Strip as the most sensitive arena, citing the presence of dozens of Israeli military positions that Hamas could potentially attempt to reach through tunnels and other underground infrastructure.
He argued that Hamas increasingly views the capture of Israeli soldiers as a strategic instrument, drawing on its experience during the events of 7 October.
According to his assessment, the movement could seek to use captured soldiers as leverage to secure new negotiating advantages, pressure the Israeli military to withdraw from the Yellow Line and limit Israel’s targeted assassination operations.
These concerns coincide with Israeli intelligence assessments alleging that Hamas is taking advantage of the current transitional period to rebuild its military capabilities and replenish its weapons supplies.
Israeli intelligence also claims that the movement has been transferring weapons into civilian areas as part of its preparations.
The assessments suggest that Israel views the transitional period not merely as a political arrangement but also as an opportunity that Hamas could exploit to strengthen its military position ahead of another confrontation.
Hamas Reportedly Calculating Around Israeli and US Elections
Israeli officials believe Hamas is factoring the electoral calendars of both Israel and the United States into its strategic calculations.
According to these assessments, Hamas considers Israel’s present freedom of military action to be constrained, particularly because a renewed large-scale campaign in Gaza would be unlikely without approval from Washington.
Israeli assessments further suggest that Hamas is preparing for the possibility of changing political circumstances following the elections, which could eventually give Israel greater freedom to conduct military operations in the territory.
A report presented to the Israeli cabinet also raised the possibility that Hamas could resume using civilian infrastructure for military purposes while continuing efforts to rebuild its capabilities.
These allegations form part of Israel’s broader assessment that Hamas is attempting to strengthen its position before the political environment becomes less favourable to the movement.
Security Concerns Extend Beyond Gaza
Israeli security concerns are not limited to the Gaza Strip.
According to assessments published by Maariv, the Israeli security establishment is preparing for the possibility of an attack by Hamas or Hezbollah, while also considering scenarios involving Iranian participation.
The newspaper noted that these preparations are taking place despite the absence of a specific intelligence warning indicating an imminent attack.
The possibility of coordinated or simultaneous activity across multiple fronts remains among the scenarios being examined by Israeli security agencies.
As part of their security assessments, Israeli officials discussed strengthening multi-front defensive capabilities, addressing what they described as “armed organisations and nationalist-motivated crime”, and implementing measures intended to ensure that upcoming elections can be conducted securely.
The discussions reflect concerns extending from potential military confrontation to wider internal security challenges.
Washington’s Position Constrains Israeli Military Options
Israel’s ability to expand its military operations in Gaza remains heavily dependent on Washington’s position.
Although Israeli forces continue to carry out targeted operations in the territory, Israeli assessments indicate that Hamas believes a return to a large-scale military campaign is unlikely under current circumstances without American authorisation.
There is no publicly acknowledged disagreement between Washington and Israel over the stated ultimate objective of disarming Hamas.
The United States continues to call for the movement’s disarmament, a position that aligns with Israel’s declared objectives.
However, differences centre on how the transitional period should be managed, particularly the extent to which Israel should be permitted to conduct military operations while Hamas is allegedly rebuilding its capabilities.
The central question is how to reconcile continued Israeli military activity with the political arrangements Washington is seeking to maintain in Gaza.
Trump’s Gaza Plan Faces Competing Pressures
US President Donald Trump and his administration are seeking to preserve the ceasefire as part of a wider plan for Gaza.
The framework includes the disarmament of Hamas, the establishment of an alternative governing authority in the territory, the deployment of a stabilisation force, the withdrawal of Israeli troops and the reconstruction of Gaza.
However, the plan presents competing challenges.
A large-scale Israeli military operation could disrupt the ceasefire and obstruct the implementation of Washington’s proposed political and security arrangements.
Conversely, if Hamas continues rebuilding its military capabilities, this could undermine one of the plan’s central requirements: the movement’s disarmament.
Israel therefore faces a dual challenge. It must navigate the political framework supported by Washington while attempting to prevent Hamas from using the transitional period to strengthen its military position and prepare for another round of fighting.
At the same time, the possibility of a surprise Iranian move against Israeli or American forces remains among the regional security scenarios being monitored by Israeli intelligence agencies.
