As Britain, Canada, and Australia — the three largest Commonwealth nations — announced their recognition of the State of Palestine, the move has placed mounting pressure on the Zionist entity. This wave of recognition raises urgent questions about Tel Aviv’s possible response: annexing wide swathes of the West Bank, escalating diplomatic tensions with France, or destabilising fragile normalisation agreements with Gulf states.
Eidan Kepler, a writer for the Hebrew site Walla, noted that “it is difficult to say that Israel was surprised by a wave of recognitions of a Palestinian state all on the same day. Perhaps it expected this, because the simultaneous announcement by Canada, Australia, and Britain — the three dominant Commonwealth powers — at 4 p.m., reflects perfect coordination, even if unofficial.”
In his article, translated by Arabi21, he added: “The world seems to have been turned upside down, yet in practice this does not necessarily change realities on the ground. It is not a United Nations Security Council decision, where the United States holds veto power. It is also important to remember that 141 countries had already recognised Palestine before this stormy afternoon.”
A Diplomatic Tsunami Building Against Israel
Kepler explained why this still feels like a diplomatic tsunami heading towards the occupation. The accumulation of such recognitions creates a critical mass that influences global public opinion and intensifies pressure on Israel. Meanwhile, the United States, which continues to provide unconditional backing, finds itself increasingly isolated on the international stage — a gamble that secures strong support for Israel domestically but risks deepening its global isolation.
Options Before Tel Aviv
The writer questioned Tel Aviv’s available options in this shifting landscape. At the forefront is the potential announcement of annexing vast areas of the West Bank, particularly the Jordan Valley and the northern Dead Sea. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains hesitant, yet assessments suggest it is unlikely Washington would exercise its veto power against such a move. This comes after US Secretary of State Rubio warned European counterparts that unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state would invite unilateral Israeli responses.
Fragile Gulf Normalisation at Stake
While Europe might eventually absorb an annexation move, the real challenge lies in the Gulf. The survival of normalisation agreements hinges on a delicate balance. Netanyahu hears promises that annexation might still pass with Gulf partners, but in practice, this has not materialised. The upcoming Trump–Netanyahu meeting in Washington next Monday may bring greater clarity to this equation.
Confrontation with France?
Another possible Israeli reaction could be retaliation against France, which has taken a leading role in the recognition wave. Measures might include shutting down the French consulate or taking punitive steps against French institutions inside Israel — a clear sign of discontent. Yet France has warned that such acts would provoke a harsh response, potentially escalating into a full diplomatic confrontation, including the expulsion of Israeli diplomats from Paris.
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