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Israeli Writer Sounds Alarm: Israel May Not Survive Until 2048

September 6, 2026
in Sunna Files Observatory
Reading Time: 20 mins read
0

An article published by Israeli newspaper Maariv has warned that existential threats, international isolation and deepening internal deterioration could threaten Israel’s survival before it reaches its centenary in 2048.

The article, written by Dan Perry, calls for the urgent formation of a national salvation government capable of implementing sweeping reforms, including universal conscription, a fundamental restructuring of national spending priorities and preventing people facing serious criminal charges from serving as prime minister.

Perry previously served as the Associated Press’s chief editor for Europe, Africa and the Middle East and has authored books about Israel.

The following is the substance of his argument.

Israel Has Reached a Moment of National Emergency

Perry begins by recalling the start of his career as a foreign correspondent in Romania in 1990, only weeks after the revolution that overthrew Nicolae Ceaușescu.

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The force that seized power called itself the “National Salvation Front”, at a time when Romania was in desperate need of rescue after the communist regime left behind a devastated economy, broken institutions and a despairing population.

“There are moments when ordinary politics is not enough, and salvation becomes necessary,” Perry writes. “Israel has reached such a moment.”

He warns that if Benjamin Netanyahu wins next month’s election despite current polling, Israel would move towards a catastrophe whose seriousness would be difficult to overstate.

If the polls prove accurate and the opposition takes power, Perry argues, it would inherit a traumatised country with weakened institutions and international isolation that threatens its very existence.

The next leadership, he says, would therefore need to govern with the mentality of national rescue.

Perry says he has watched with alarm as Israel’s international standing deteriorated, drawing on his familiarity with political and media circles in the United States and Europe.

“The situation is more serious than many realise,” he writes.

In his assessment, an isolated Israel would become a poorer Israel, with a society and military resembling those of developing countries, leaving it increasingly vulnerable.

He argues that the various crises are interconnected. Occupation and wars fuel international isolation, isolation damages the economy and security, while domestic political and financial distortions further weaken the country.

The result, Perry says, is a vicious cycle that the next government must break.

He also identifies the high birth rate among ultra-Orthodox Jews as an acute economic challenge, arguing that it will not decline quickly enough under the existing incentives system.

Against that background, Perry proposes 12 urgent measures.

1. Accountability and Democracy

Perry calls for the establishment of a state commission of inquiry into the 7 October catastrophe without restrictions.

He also calls for reversing the legal and constitutional amendments introduced by Netanyahu’s coalition, particularly the intense legislative campaign pursued in recent months.

This includes reversing legislation weakening the powers of the attorney-general and steps that undermined the independence of the courts, legal advisers and oversight bodies.

Ministers, he says, must be made clearly subject to court rulings like everyone else.

Israelis could one day debate legal reform calmly and on the basis of broad consensus, he argues, but the present measures should first be undone.

Perry says years of wasted political opportunities have increased Israel’s isolation and reduced its security.

“It is time to convert military power into political achievements,” he writes.

2. Accept Trump’s Gaza Plan in Good Faith

Perry calls on Israel to accept US President Donald Trump’s Gaza plan fully and sincerely.

Israel, he argues, should announce that it accepts the plan’s entire framework and will implement it in good faith.

If Hamas genuinely disarms, Israel should withdraw as agreed, cooperate fully with the international stabilisation force and the Board of Peace, and accept the governing Palestinian authority that would be established under the plan.

“There is no room for manoeuvring or inventing obstacles,” Perry writes.

He also argues that Israel should actively participate in Gaza’s reconstruction and help raise funds from Arab countries and international donors.

3. End Jewish Terrorism in the West Bank

Perry calls for an end to what he describes as the effective immunity enjoyed by violent Jewish extremists in the occupied West Bank.

He proposes banning organisations involved in terrorism, confiscating illegal weapons, dismantling armed outposts and establishing a dedicated sentencing framework.

The Israeli military, he argues, should receive explicit instructions that protecting Palestinians from Israeli attackers is an integral part of its mission.

“Smotrich’s deception is over,” Perry writes.

4. Freeze Settlement Expansion Beyond the Security Barrier

Perry calls for construction to stop in isolated settlements deep inside the West Bank in order to preserve the possibility of future partition.

Without that possibility, he argues, there can be no Jewish state.

He says the establishment of a Palestinian state is currently inconceivable while Hamas remains armed and the Palestinian Authority has not undergone reform, but argues that Israel must stop taking measures that make such a state permanently impossible.

Israel, he says, could declare that major settlement blocs including Alfei Menashe, Ma’ale Adumim and Gush Etzion would remain under its control as part of any future settlement, while offering generous incentives for Israelis living beyond the barrier to relocate.

5. Rebuild Israel’s Regional Strategy

Perry argues that Lebanon and Syria should be given a new opportunity.

Israel should declare that it has no territorial ambitions in either country beyond the Golan Heights and should initially work towards non-aggression agreements.

He calls for testing whether the Syrian government of Ahmed al-Sharaa is serious about peace and, if it is, welcoming such a development.

At the same time, Israel should provide Lebanon with whatever assistance it may require in confronting Hezbollah.

Regarding Iran, Perry calls for what he describes as a futile war of attrition to be replaced by a long-term strategy coordinated with the United States and its allies, combining military deterrence, diplomacy and economic pressure.

He argues that attacks carried out without coordination, explanation or a clearly defined objective should stop.

Israel should also engage Saudi Arabia, he says, on the basis of Trump’s plan, which includes in-principle approval for the future establishment of a Palestinian state.

6. Make Relations With Egypt and Jordan a National Priority

Perry calls for strengthening relations with Egypt and Jordan to become a national priority.

He says Israel should thank Cairo and Amman for maintaining peace through decades of severe regional turbulence and should listen carefully to both governments.

Israel should seek ways to deepen economic and security relations with them and, where mutually desired, expand cultural ties as well.

Perry argues that these external measures would be relatively easy.

“The real challenge,” he writes, “is at home.”

7. Embrace Arab Society

Perry calls for organised crime in Arab communities to be declared a national emergency.

He proposes doubling the security presence where necessary, targeting the financing of criminal organisations and illegal weapons networks, and holding their leaders accountable.

Every murder of an Arab citizen, he argues, should be presented as an Israeli tragedy.

He also calls for amending the 1992 Basic Law on Human Dignity and Liberty to explicitly guarantee equality.

Transparent mechanisms should be created to ensure fair funding for Arab local authorities, alongside a national project to repair neglected infrastructure and public services.

Afterwards, Perry says, a serious dialogue should begin with Arab leaders regarding national service.

8. Declare an Education Emergency

Perry warns that Israeli students are falling behind in mathematics and science, while gaps between stronger and weaker students are among the largest in the developed world.

A country seeking to preserve its position as a technological power, he argues, cannot continue on this path.

He calls for major investment in state education, teachers, mathematics, science, English and civic education.

At the same time, he proposes a simple condition: no core curriculum, no state funding.

Every school receiving government funding or official recognition should be required to teach the complete core curriculum, employ qualified teachers, submit to supervision and participate in assessment testing.

This would apply to ultra-Orthodox education as well as Hebrew-language studies in the Arab sector.

“Will they go crazy? Let them go crazy,” Perry writes.

9. Completely Restructure Financial Incentives

Perry calls for child allowances to be gradually phased out beginning with the fourth child.

He also proposes returning budgets for religious schools to their previous, lower levels, eliminating unnecessary publicly funded positions for rabbis and kashrut inspectors, and restoring the previous government’s kashrut reform.

At the same time, Perry proposes establishing a national integration authority with a budget worth billions of shekels.

It would provide adult education, completion of core studies, university preparation, vocational and technological training, employment assistance and pathways into military or national service for anyone seeking to enter the mainstream of Israeli society, whether ultra-Orthodox or Arab.

10. Universal Military or National Service

Perry argues that study at religious seminaries should no longer exempt an eligible young man from military service or legally recognised national service.

He calls for legislation establishing universal compulsory service, implemented carefully and gradually.

Ultra-Orthodox draft evaders should face the same consequences as other people who evade conscription.

Benefits could be withheld, while institutions facilitating draft evasion should lose government funding.

Perry acknowledges that such a measure would initially be impossible to implement by consensus because there are currently no political partners for it, although he argues that determined implementation could eventually produce broader acceptance.

All of this, he says, would require a fundamental reordering of national priorities.

Israel has invested too much in wars, settlements and buying political peace, he argues, and far too little in the country itself.

The time has come, he says, to redirect money, energy and national ambition towards Israel and Israelis without sacrificing genuine security.

11. Make the Negev and Galilee a New National Project

Perry calls for a radical restructuring of economic priorities.

There should be no money for isolated settlements, sectoral mechanisms or political demands, he argues, while significantly more should be directed towards infrastructure, housing, transport, health and education inside sovereign Israel.

Resources previously spent elsewhere should instead be redirected towards the Negev and Galilee.

He proposes investing billions in roads, railways, housing, hospitals, universities and industry, together with generous tax incentives for companies and families.

In the north, Perry calls for a genuine transport network linking Haifa, Acre, Nazareth, Karmiel, Tiberias and Kiryat Shmona.

12. Prevent a Criminal Defendant From Serving as Prime Minister

Perry calls for the Basic Law to be amended so that a person indicted on serious corruption charges cannot form a government.

“This experiment succeeded exactly as expected,” he writes, describing the result as “a massive conflict of interest and a national disgrace”.

Will Israel Survive?

Perry acknowledges that such measures would face intense opposition but argues that a national salvation government could not afford to retreat.

The task, he says, would not simply be replacing Netanyahu.

It would require confronting urgent structural problems, repairing past damage, reconnecting Israel with the democratic world and restoring hope among Israelis.

If such measures are not taken, Perry warns, it is doubtful that Israel will survive until the centenary of its establishment in 2048.

He argues that continued entanglement with a hostile Palestinian population, combined with rapid population growth in the ultra-Orthodox sector without fundamental reform, would destroy Israel’s alliances and access to global markets while driving out the country’s productive sectors.

“What will remain here is a poor, exhausted ghetto that will not last,” he warns.

But if Israel acts with determination, responsibility and urgency, Perry concludes, the expression he heard in Romania decades ago might also apply to Israel.

There is still much that can be saved, he says, and the effort is worthwhile.

“There is still a chance for national salvation.”

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