Despite no clear prospect of ending the ongoing war against Iran, now entering its seventh month, the Trump administration is working on a broader blueprint for the Middle East aimed at reshaping the regional balance of power beyond conventional military and security tactics.
According to leaks revealed by US news site Axios, the plan remains in its early drafting stages but is intended to define the strategic direction of US policy in the region for the remainder of President Donald Trump’s term.
Citing US officials and sources familiar with the discussions, Axios reported that the broad post-war strategy would seek to tighten the containment of Tehran while expanding normalisation between the Israeli occupation state and countries across the region.
Sources said work on the strategy is proceeding along two parallel tracks. Senior figures within the US administration are leading one track, while specialised teams across several government agencies are examining the details and developing proposals.
Trump has also reportedly held at least two meetings with senior advisers in recent weeks to discuss the plan and exchange ideas about its direction. In private remarks, the president said he wanted to achieve “something much bigger” in the Middle East once the war with Iran ends.
What Are the Three Main Pillars?
According to Axios, the strategy is built around three principal areas: containing Iran, expanding normalisation agreements, and addressing the regional consequences of the Gaza war.
1. Building a More Coordinated Front Against Iran
The first pillar involves strengthening coordination among Washington’s regional allies in an effort to establish a more cohesive front for containing Iran, backed by US security guarantees.
The approach itself does not represent a fundamental departure from longstanding US policy. Successive American administrations have sought to restrict Tehran’s regional influence since the 1979 Iranian Revolution by strengthening relations and alliances with Gulf states, Egypt and Jordan.
The emerging proposal, however, seeks to bring these efforts into a more coordinated framework through closer defence and security arrangements among US allies.
This comes amid what Washington describes as a shift in the regional balance of power following six months of war and Israeli and American strikes targeting Iranian capabilities.
2. Pushing Saudi Arabia Towards Normalisation
The second pillar centres on encouraging a normalisation agreement between Saudi Arabia and the Israeli occupation state, an objective Washington has pursued for years.
Those efforts have stalled because Riyadh has linked any move towards normalisation to tangible progress towards establishing a Palestinian state.
Since the Abraham Accords were signed in 2020 under Trump’s first administration, Washington has sought to expand the number of countries joining the agreements, viewing normalisation as one of the mechanisms through which regional relationships and alliances can be restructured while reducing the influence of Iran and its allies.
3. Reshaping the Regional Aftermath of the Gaza War
The third pillar focuses on addressing the regional consequences of the Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October 2023 and the war in Gaza that followed.
This pillar is divided into three main tracks.
The first involves moving towards the next stage of the US plan for Gaza, including arrangements for reconstruction, the disarmament of Hamas and the establishment of a transitional administration. These issues remain stalled and contested among the parties involved.
The second track seeks a security agreement between Tel Aviv and Damascus following the political changes in Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government at the end of 2024, as the new authorities attempt to reshape Syria’s regional and international relations.
The third concerns agreements between Tel Aviv and Beirut aimed at limiting Hezbollah’s military capabilities.
That track has also remained largely stalled amid Israeli violations of the ceasefire agreement concluded at the end of 2024.
The Plan Has Yet to Fully Take Shape
Despite the breadth of the objectives under discussion, Axios reported that the Trump administration’s strategy remains under development.
One source familiar with the process described the project as “not yet fully baked”, suggesting the administration could require several more weeks to formulate a more complete version of the plan.
The source said the objective was to “tie a lot of the pieces in the region together”.
Its prospects, however, are expected to depend heavily on the position of Washington’s regional allies, with countries including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Egypt expressing reservations about regional arrangements that do not place the Palestinian issue at their centre.
