As tensions continue between the United States and Iran, and the Israeli occupation continues to prepare for the possibility of renewed confrontation, the Middle East appears to be entering a new phase in which military calculations are increasingly intersecting with economic pressure and political negotiations.
While Tehran seeks to improve its negotiating position, US President Donald Trump continues to pursue a policy of pressure and manoeuvring. At the same time, the Israeli occupation views preventing Iran from rebuilding its nuclear and missile capabilities as a security priority.
Amid these overlapping calculations, concerns are growing that regional arenas stretching from Lebanon and Syria to Iraq, Yemen and the Gulf could become open fronts, making the coming months a critical test of whether the parties can contain escalation before the region slides into another round of war.
In this context, an Israeli expert has highlighted what he described as a Middle East that has reached boiling point, with the United States, the Israeli occupation and Iran all preparing for another possible round of conflict.
US President Donald Trump is testing the limits of pressure, Tehran is searching for an achievement that could return it to negotiations from a stronger position, and Tel Aviv continues preparing for a possible attack on Iran.
Israeli writer Yair Merton, a strategic adviser and crisis expert, said that “the Middle East has entered its most dangerous phase, not because anyone wants war, but because too many players are beginning to conclude that the cost of avoiding it may be higher than the cost of fighting it”.
He added that the United States and Iran remain locked in an ongoing confrontation, while attempts to reach understandings over the nuclear file, sanctions and the Strait of Hormuz have failed to produce a stable settlement.
Bargaining Leverage
Writing in the Hebrew-language newspaper Maariv, Merton argued that Iran faces an almost impossible dilemma.
“The economy is eroding, American pressure is increasing, trade and currency channels are shrinking, while its ability to present the public with a strategic achievement is gradually diminishing,” he said.
He noted that the United States announced a tightening of its economic campaign against Tehran last week, adding that this is where the danger lies because “a regime under pressure seeks to possess a bargaining chip in negotiations”.
Merton said Iran could attempt to initiate a limited move using missiles, drones, armed factions in Iraq, Hezbollah and the Houthi movement.
The objective, he argued, would not be to defeat the United States or Israel, but to demonstrate that Tehran still has the ability to disrupt the Middle East.
Its aim would be to increase the cost of confrontation, generate political pressure in Washington and return to the negotiating table from a position of strength, at least from Tehran’s perspective.
He added that recent assessments already point to Iranian preparations to expand its campaign through allied forces across the region.
With the US midterm elections approaching, Merton argued that the key question is not only what Trump will do, but also what Iranian leaders believe he will not dare to do.
If Tehran concludes that the US president would prefer reaching a deal over entering a prolonged war, Iran may gamble on calculated escalation.
However, if Washington determines that economic pressure alone is insufficient, Merton said another US military move is entirely possible.
Such action would not necessarily involve an invasion or a decisive war, but could instead take the form of a series of strikes aimed at degrading Iran’s missile and nuclear capabilities and military infrastructure, potentially including energy facilities.
War or Peace?
Merton then turned to the question of how Israel would respond.
“What will Israel do? It will not be able to allow a situation in which Iran rebuilds its capabilities under a ceasefire,” he said.
If another round of fighting erupts, he expects Israel to move faster, strike deeper and focus more heavily on what it regards as the sources of the threat.
He said Israel would prefer a short and violent war over a prolonged war of attrition in which the Israeli home front bears the cost for months.
Merton also noted that Iran is not confronting Israel in isolation.
Lebanon could once again become a front, he said, with Hezbollah still capable of increasing the cost of war and creating a prolonged state of attrition.
At the same time, Syria is becoming another arena of confrontation.
According to Merton, the authorities in Damascus are seeking to consolidate their sovereignty and prevent weapons smuggling to Hezbollah, while Iran and its allies are trying to preserve their strategic corridor in support of aligned forces.
Yemen Could Become a Wider Front
In Yemen, the crisis expert did not rule out what he described as the most unexpected front of all.
He said the Houthi movement has already begun escalating its activity against Saudi Arabia, while reports of attacks on Saudi sites point to a genuine risk of a renewed and broader war.
Iran, he added, understands that the Houthis are capable of inflicting pain on Saudi Arabia, disrupting trade routes and driving up oil prices without Tehran itself having to launch the first missile.
Europe Faces a Different Security Challenge
Merton also argued that the rules of the game are changing in Europe.
He said Europe will increasingly have to deal not only with what is described as “terrorism”, but with a more complex combination of ideological extremism, migration, crime and the infiltration of armed elements.
The European challenge, he said, will be to combat “extremism” without turning that confrontation into a war against Islam or against the millions of Muslims living across the continent.
The Question Is What Kind of War Comes Next
Ultimately, Merton argued that the Middle East is no longer facing a simple choice between “war or peace”.
Instead, he said, the question is “what kind of war will come, and when?”
Iran needs an agreement, he argued, but it also needs an achievement.
Trump wants a deal, but not at any price.
Israel wants to prevent Iran from rebuilding its capabilities.
Saudi Arabia wants calm, but will not accept living under a Houthi threat.
Syria and Lebanon, meanwhile, are attempting to free themselves from what Merton described as the Iranian burden.
He concluded that the coming months will be marked by a war of nerves, negotiations and threats, but also by intense preparations in case diplomacy fails.
“In the Middle East, the problem is not that the players do not know how to stop the war,” he said. “The problem is that each one is trying to make sure the other side stops first.”
