Indirect negotiations between Iran and the United States in Doha, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan, have resulted in tangible progress towards defining the next phase of talks. The discussions concluded with an agreement on a temporary one week military ceasefire.
The pause in hostilities coincides with significant domestic events in both countries. The United States is marking the 250th anniversary of its independence, while Iran is mourning the passing of its late Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. Despite this temporary de-escalation, questions remain over whether the ceasefire represents a genuine step towards stability or merely a short-lived mechanism before military escalation resumes once the week expires.
Strategic Gains and Political Calculations
According to Liqaa Makki, Senior Researcher at the Al Jazeera Centre for Studies, the current ceasefire could continue if it proves beneficial for all parties involved. He pointed to key messages delivered by Washington’s envoys, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, to Iranian officials through Qatari mediators.
Speaking to Hour of Discussion, Makki said the messages stressed that the benefits Iran stands to gain from the Memorandum of Understanding, particularly regarding its nuclear programme and oil exports, significantly outweigh any leverage provided by the Strait of Hormuz. Washington also warned that any escalation in the waterway could jeopardise the entire agreement.
Regarding the financial arrangements, Makki explained that the emerging framework provides for the release of US$3 billion rather than the previously discussed US$6 billion. The funds would be managed through restricted banking accounts designated for purchasing goods and processing payments, without transferring cash directly to Iran. According to Makki, this arrangement is acceptable to Tehran and does not require it to purchase goods from the United States.
On the regional front, Gulf states have begun discussions on future arrangements concerning the Strait of Hormuz, with a proposal expected to be developed over the next 60 days. Makki noted that Iran understands the memorandum grants it the authority to consult with regional states while retaining full decision making power.
He also argued that both the Strait of Hormuz and Lebanon, despite ongoing Israeli occupation and repeated violations there, are unlikely to derail the negotiations.
Earlier, Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson Majed Al Ansari confirmed that Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were in Doha meeting with mediators to discuss the progress of negotiations between Washington and Tehran regarding implementation of the Memorandum of Understanding.
The 60 Day Challenge
Mohammad Saleh Sedghian, Director of the Arab Centre for Iranian Studies, highlighted the legal and political obstacles facing implementation of the agreement.
He noted that the US administration remains constrained by legislation passed by Congress, which legally prohibits certain financial dealings and commercial transactions with Iran.
Sedghian also cited comments by Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal and International Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi, who stated that the 60 day implementation period has not yet begun, as preparations are still underway to establish the appropriate conditions for launching the agreed measures.
He pointed to a clear contrast in expectations between the two sides. American media reports suggest President Donald Trump is open to extending the implementation period to between 90 and 200 days, reflecting optimism aimed at maintaining market stability. Iranian officials, however, continue to express caution and scepticism regarding the fulfilment of the necessary commitments before implementation proceeds.
A Strategy of Preserving the Status Quo
Middle East policy expert Mahjoob Al Zuwairi believes the proposed activation of a direct hotline between Washington and Tehran, together with the release of the US$3 billion package, faces a major obstacle in what he describes as a strategy of preserving the status quo.
According to Al Zuwairi, this approach leaves both sides more inclined to return to confrontation than to sustain meaningful negotiations, despite neither side showing an appetite for full scale war.
He identified the main features of this cautious approach:
United States
The United States remains reluctant to take concrete steps towards lifting sanctions and has also hesitated to pressure Israel into making meaningful progress in southern Lebanon.
Iran
Iran continues to show caution over taking decisive steps concerning the Strait of Hormuz.
Al Zuwairi concluded that the deep lack of trust between the two sides over commitments following the 60 day period means negotiations are likely to move at a very slow pace, producing only limited progress. As long as both parties continue pursuing a strategy centred on preserving the status quo, the negotiating process could collapse at any moment, although such a breakdown would not necessarily result in a full scale war.
On 17 June, the United States and Iran electronically signed a Memorandum of Understanding aimed at ending the conflict, paving the way for a second phase of negotiations over a 60 day period with the objective of reaching a final agreement.
