In a direct contradiction of the public narrative promoted by US President Donald Trump regarding the destruction of Iran’s military capabilities, The New York Times reported, citing informed sources, that American intelligence agencies privately told policymakers that Tehran had regained operational control over roughly 90% of its underground missile infrastructure across the country.
The classified assessments, conducted earlier this month and discussed among US intelligence agencies, indicate that Iran preserved a substantial portion of its missile arsenal, creating a growing strategic dilemma for Washington amid severe shortages in key military munitions.
The evaluations, based on satellite imagery and advanced surveillance technologies, reportedly produced findings that alarmed senior officials in Washington.
Iran Restores Most Underground Missile Infrastructure
Among the most significant findings cited in the report:
Operational Recovery
Approximately 90% of Iran’s underground storage and missile launch facilities are now functioning either partially or fully.
Strait of Hormuz Threat
Iran has reportedly restored operational access to 30 out of 33 missile sites overlooking the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic maritime corridor through which nearly one fifth of global daily oil consumption passes.
The development poses a direct threat to more than 20 American warships enforcing the blockade in the area, as well as commercial shipping routes and oil tankers transiting the strait.
Missile Stockpiles and Launch Platforms
According to the assessments, Tehran retains roughly 70% of its mobile missile launch platforms and nearly 70% of its pre war missile inventory.
Sources stated that Iranian forces remain capable of moving missiles through mobile launch systems inside underground facilities or launching them directly from integrated platforms embedded within the complexes themselves.
Intelligence Findings Clash With Official US Claims
The intelligence conclusions sharply contradict statements repeatedly made by the Trump administration.
On 9 March, Trump claimed Iran’s missiles had been “scattered and diminished,” declaring the country had “nothing left in the military sense.”
On 8 April, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth stated that the joint American and Israeli military campaign had “destroyed Iran’s military and rendered it combat ineffective for years to come.”
Responding to the report, White House spokesperson Olivia Wells repeated Trump’s assertions that Tehran’s military had been “crushed,” adding that anyone claiming Iran had rebuilt its armed forces was either “delusional or a mouthpiece for the Revolutionary Guard.”
Trump later wrote in a post that suggesting the Iranian military remained in strong condition was “almost an act of treason.”
Acting Pentagon spokesperson Joel Valdez described the New York Times report as “outrageous” and accused the newspaper of serving as “public relations agents for the Iranian regime” in an attempt to undermine what he called the “historic achievement” of Operation Epic Fury.
Why Iran’s Arsenal Survived
The report highlights the potentially severe consequences of any collapse in the fragile ceasefire agreement.
If Trump orders a renewed military campaign against Iran, the US military would likely be forced to draw even deeper into already strained strategic stockpiles.
According to intelligence assessments, the survival of much of Iran’s missile arsenal resulted from a deliberate tactical decision by American commanders.
Due to limited supplies of bunker buster munitions, the Pentagon reportedly prioritised sealing entrances to underground facilities rather than fully destroying them internally. The decision was made to preserve specialised munitions for potential future conflicts in Asia involving China or North Korea.
Massive US Munitions Depletion
According to the report, Washington used approximately 1,100 long range cruise missiles during the conflict, approaching the remaining total available in American stockpiles.
The US also launched more than 1,000 Tomahawk missiles, roughly ten times the quantity the Pentagon purchases in a typical year.
Additionally, American forces consumed more than 1,300 Patriot interceptor missiles, exceeding two full years of production based on 2025 manufacturing rates.
The report warned that replenishing these munitions would require years rather than months.
Although companies such as Lockheed Martin are planning to increase Patriot missile production from roughly 650 units annually to around 2,000, the defence industry continues to face major difficulties expanding rocket motor production at the pace demanded by the Trump administration.
Iranian Losses and European Anxiety
Despite the intelligence findings, the report stressed that Tehran did suffer substantial damage during the American and Israeli assault.
Iranian air defence systems and strategic facilities sustained heavy strikes, while several senior military commanders were killed. The Iranian economy also remains under severe wartime pressure, raising questions over Tehran’s ability to maintain its current negotiating position or continue disrupting maritime traffic through Hormuz.
At the same time, Iran’s continued military capability has intensified concerns among European allies that purchased billions of dollars worth of American munitions intended for Ukraine.
European governments reportedly fear those weapons may no longer be delivered as Washington diverts resources to replenish its own depleted arsenals.
Despite those concerns, senior US military officials continue attempting to reassure both domestic and international audiences.
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine told Congress:
“We have sufficient munitions for what we are tasked to do at this time.”
Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell also insisted the military possesses everything required to fulfil its missions.
“We have successfully conducted multiple operations while ensuring the US military maintains a deep arsenal of capabilities to protect our people and our interests.”
