In the ongoing multi front military confrontation in southern Lebanon, complex dimensions of the battle between Hezbollah and Israel are emerging. Daily rocket attacks targeting the Galilee and the outskirts of Tel Aviv have raised growing doubts about the true balance of Hezbollah’s military power, which remains unclear despite repeated Israeli pressure and what appear to be inflated official assessments.
In reality, Hezbollah’s intensive rocket attacks in recent days have delivered a shock to the narrative of near absolute victory that the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has sought to promote since the autumn of 2024. At the same time, sharp questions have begun to surface within Israel regarding what is described as the scale of misinformation presented by the government about Hezbollah’s military capabilities.
Some have even advanced the hypothesis that Hezbollah may have successfully lured the Israeli army into a prolonged war of attrition, after creating the impression that its command structure had collapsed and that its military capabilities had significantly deteriorated.
A Misleading Narrative
Experts believe that Hezbollah has succeeded in creating a dual reality, combining tactical weakness in southern Lebanon with the capacity to launch intensive strikes that can reach deep into Israeli territory.
According to military analyses, Hezbollah managed a narrative aimed at concealing its actual capabilities, while the Israeli government focused on highlighting temporary battlefield gains. This created a gap between the military reality and Israeli media messaging, leading to repeated shocks within Israel whenever direct confrontations escalated.
Voices quickly rose within Israeli society, particularly among security and media circles, criticising what they described as the management of political narratives at the expense of battlefield realities.
In this context, Israeli military affairs correspondent Arieh Egozi, in an article published on the “Zman Israel” website, criticised the Netanyahu government, describing its military assessments as partial and misleading. He stated that these assessments focused on limited achievements in the Israeli campaign against Hezbollah while concealing vulnerabilities related to Hezbollah’s recovery rate and the potential costs this could impose on northern Israel.
According to Egozi, Hezbollah, in coordination with Iran, exploited these miscalculations to launch dozens of rockets daily. He stressed that the group’s strategic capability has not been eliminated and that any perception of Israeli victory remains far from the reality on the ground.
Flexible Defence
Meanwhile, military analyses reveal that Hezbollah has not confined itself to traditional defensive manoeuvres but has instead adopted a flexible defence strategy that draws on its past experience in confronting the Israeli army.
This is confirmed by military and strategic expert Nidal Abu Zaid, who noted that Hezbollah relied on anti armour missiles such as “Almas” and field tactics designed to hinder Israeli advances in strategic areas such as Khiam and Aitaroun. This approach has enabled the group to maintain the ability to carry out sustained and intensive attacks from multiple locations, reflecting its understanding of the importance of infrastructure and logistical depth in warfare.
On the other hand, Israel has escalated its ground and air operations, reinforcing its incursions by deploying armoured divisions such as the 36th, 91st, and 162nd divisions, under heavy air cover, with the aim of imposing a new battlefield reality in the eastern sector of the border.
Abu Zaid explained that the objective of these deployments is not limited to territorial control but also to open routes for infantry units such as the Golani Brigade to advance into secondary lines, while Hezbollah continues to target Israeli positions both inside Lebanon and in the Galilee in an effort to balance military pressure and impose a new deterrence equation.
A report published by the French newspaper “Le Monde” indicated that the current escalation exposes weaknesses in previous Israeli assessments of Hezbollah and places Lebanon at significant risk. While Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz has called for the disarmament of Hezbollah, experts consider this step impossible under ongoing war conditions, particularly given the Lebanese army’s reluctance to act out of fear of triggering a new civil war.
This context dates back to the end of the Lebanese civil war in 1990, when Hezbollah retained its weapons under the justification of resisting Israeli occupation, which allowed it to develop into a deeply rooted military and political force, according to the French newspaper.
Re Armament
On another front, reports in multiple newspapers, including The Wall Street Journal, revealed that Hezbollah began rebuilding its military arsenal in 2024. This includes short range missiles, drones, and heavy munitions, alongside smuggled shipments from Syria and locally produced weapons.
The report confirms that this process has continued despite ongoing Israeli airstrikes, and that Hezbollah has retained one third of its pre war firepower. In addition, it has strengthened its covert infrastructure, including storage, smuggling networks, and transportation operations, ensuring the continuity of its strategic military capabilities.
Israeli estimates indicate that Hezbollah includes around 40,000 fighters in Lebanon and possesses between 15,000 and 20,000 rockets and shells, with its total military arsenal reaching approximately 20,000 units.
According to these estimates, Radwan forces have reorganised their ranks in the area between the Litani River and the border, in major cities such as Nabatieh.
The Israeli newspaper Maariv reported that the Israeli army is now aware of Hezbollah’s plans to rebuild its strength, including intensive recruitment, stockpiling of weapons, and the construction of a new defensive line north of the Litani River.
The report described this force as a fully fledged army equipped with missile and artillery systems, rather than a temporary combat formation.
Another report published by the Israeli website “Ynet” stated that Hezbollah is rebuilding its capabilities across three main axes:
- Rockets and artillery
- Drones
- Infrastructure, with a particular focus on the area north of the Litani River, which has become its new geographical centre of gravity
Observers affirm that the confrontations Hezbollah has engaged in against Israel have not eliminated its capabilities despite intensive Israeli strikes. They also note that Israeli assessments of its strength were simplified and inaccurate, while Hezbollah exploited intelligence gaps to its advantage, confirming that it remains an active force capable of influencing the course of any future confrontation.
