Israel continues to suffer the consequences of its ongoing genocidal war on Gaza, with one of the most visible costs being the erosion of its regional and international ties. Yet, one exception stands out: the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a state whose international image is regarded as a vital strategic asset, has chosen to persist with its normalisation agreement with Israel despite mounting global outrage.
According to Yoel Guzansky, head of the Gulf Program at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies and a fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, next week marks the fifth anniversary of the UAE–Israel normalisation deal. Writing in Yedioth Ahronoth, he described the UAE as Israel’s “closest friend in the Arab world,” noting that Abu Dhabi has refused to back away from the Abraham Accords despite pressure arising from the Gaza war.
Deepening Ties in the Shadow of War
Guzansky pointed out that, unlike other Arab ambassadors who left Tel Aviv, the Israeli ambassador has remained in Abu Dhabi. Foreign ministers from both sides continue to meet publicly; trade between the two has increased; and security relations—especially in weapons sales and defence cooperation—have strengthened. At the same time, the UAE has sought to present itself as a humanitarian leader in Gaza, sending aid convoys while maintaining its partnership with Israel.
He argued that the UAE crafted a “warm peace” with Israel, unlike the cold and limited treaties signed by Jordan and Egypt. Israel has been normalised in Emirati public life, while Abu Dhabi also positions itself as a key humanitarian player in Gaza, claiming that its close ties with Israel have enabled it to secure certain gains for Palestinians that would have been impossible otherwise.
Competition for Influence in Gaza
The analysis further noted that the UAE seeks to strengthen its influence in post-war Gaza, aiming to outmaneuver rivals such as Qatar. Abu Dhabi views its near-exclusive access to Israel as a strategic advantage it hopes to exploit. However, this relationship has come at a high cost:
- The UAE’s international reputation has suffered, with embassies abroad facing criticism.
- Emirati citizens have encountered hostility in parts of the Arab world.
- Global public opinion increasingly associates the UAE with complicity in Israel’s crimes against Palestinians.
Public opinion polls show significant damage to the UAE’s image because of its continued ties with Israel. Criticism has also emerged domestically, particularly as Israel’s war drags on and fails to achieve its stated goal of crushing Hamas.
Balancing Benefits and Costs
Despite these pressures, Emirati leadership has shown no sign of altering its course. Guzansky suggested that Abu Dhabi believes the strategic benefits outweigh the costs, trusting that it can manage both domestic and international criticism.
Israel, meanwhile, has positioned itself as a vital security partner for the UAE, especially after the Houthi missile strike on Abu Dhabi in 2022. Tel Aviv responded quickly by providing missile defence systems, reinforcing perceptions of Israel as a useful ally against regional threats.
Toward a Cold Peace?
The analyst conceded, however, that the UAE cannot remain indifferent to Gaza’s suffering. Over the past two years, Abu Dhabi’s rhetoric has grown more critical of Israel, with stronger calls for the establishment of a Palestinian state as a condition for its role in Gaza’s reconstruction.
Yet cancelling the accords altogether remains unlikely, as such a move would damage the UAE’s ties with Washington and be seen as an admission of failure. Instead, Guzansky predicted a gradual cooling of relations, including:
- Quiet suspension of joint projects,
- Reduced political coordination,
- A slow slide toward a “cold peace” similar to Egypt and Jordan’s model.
Should U.S. support for Israel weaken, Abu Dhabi may feel freer to distance itself further—particularly if Israel carries out the occupation of Gaza City.
A Strategic Crossroads
Ultimately, the continuation of Israel’s war threatens the UAE’s regional vision of becoming a global hub for trade, transport, energy, and innovation. If the conflict drags on, Abu Dhabi may be forced to reconsider its integration strategies, explore alternatives that bypass Israel, and potentially choose a side more aligned with Arab public opinion and Palestinian rights.
For now, the Emirati formula of maintaining ties with Israel while simultaneously providing aid to Palestinians is being severely tested. The longer Israel’s war crimes continue, the harder it becomes for Abu Dhabi to sustain this balancing act.
