The Makkah Mutual Defence Agreement represents a response to the challenge of collective security in a region long shaped by competition between the United States, Iran and Israel, and to a lesser extent Russia and China. Yet the region now faces a task more complicated than simply establishing another military alliance.
For decades, the concept of Arab security rested on two assumptions: that the United States would remain the principal external guarantor of stability in the Middle East, and that Arab states could manage crises separately without the need for a cohesive regional security architecture.
The US-Israeli war against Iran undermined both assumptions. Washington’s priorities have shifted markedly towards China and strategic competition in Asia, while the United States increasingly seeks to manage Middle Eastern crises at the lowest possible cost.
Israel Moves to Fortify Its Eastern Mediterranean Front
Amid these geopolitical shifts, the Makkah Alliance emerged on August 7, 2026, when Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan signed a mutual defence agreement between their three countries in Makkah.
Although the alliance’s statement stressed that the Makkah Agreement was not directed against any state and did not constitute a threat to any party, concerns in Israel have reportedly pushed it to reinforce its position in the Eastern Mediterranean through partnerships with countries described as having adversarial relations with Saudi Arabia, Turkey or Pakistan.
A Counter-Alliance to the Makkah Pact
Greek newspaper Greek City Times reported that Tel Aviv is seeking to establish a parallel military and security alliance to counter the Makkah Defence Alliance, arguing that reports of Israeli moves in this direction are becoming increasingly “realistic”.
The newspaper said Israel has “genuine concern” that the Makkah Alliance could expand to include other Muslim countries, particularly because it believes Pakistan’s nuclear military capabilities could eventually extend protection to Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
According to the report, further expansion of the alliance could significantly weaken Israel’s position in the Middle East, prompting Tel Aviv to pursue a counter-alliance intended to restore what it describes as the regional “balance”, particularly as Washington signals an intention to gradually reduce its influence in the Middle East.
The newspaper said Israel is moving towards an alliance with Greece, capitalising on Athens’ longstanding rivalry with Turkey.
India is also presented as a potential partner because, according to the report, New Delhi fears Bangladesh could join the Makkah Alliance, increasing what it perceives as security pressure.
The UAE is another potential participant, with the newspaper pointing to Abu Dhabi’s positive relations with Israel alongside its negative relations with Saudi Arabia.
Armenia and Ethnic Minorities Enter the Equation
The newspaper said Israeli efforts could eventually extend to Armenia, seeking to capitalise on its disputes with Iran and bring it into a broader alliance.
At present, however, Armenia remains an unlikely participant in the proposed Israeli-led bloc because of its positive relations with Turkey.
The report also claimed Israel is examining support for minority groups inside Makkah Alliance states, including Baloch and Pashtun groups and other movements opposed to Pakistan’s government.
It argued that overlapping Israeli and Indian objectives in weakening Pakistan could accelerate the formation of such a counter-alliance.
Record Israeli-Greek Arms Deal
In a development that appears closely connected to the escalating tensions between Athens and Ankara, Israel and Greece signed a military agreement on Monday worth $3.6 billion, described as the largest arms deal in Israel’s history.
The agreement coincided with the first meeting of the Strategic Political and Defence Committee established under the Makkah Mutual Defence Agreement.
According to Israeli newspaper Globes, the deal includes the supply of three Israeli air defence systems to Greece.
The growing Israeli-Greek military relationship has been accompanied by sharper Turkish political rhetoric and developments on the ground.
Last Friday, two Greek F-16 fighter jets took off to intercept a Turkish drone operating in the vicinity of the Greek islands of Samothrace and Lemnos.
The two islands lie in the northern Aegean Sea near the Turkish coast and remain a source of serious disagreement between Ankara and Athens, particularly after Turkey issued a presidential decree around two weeks earlier establishing “national marine parks” around the islands.
Athens is also moving to establish a new drone base on the island of Rhodes.
Turkey’s Ministry of Defence responded by saying: “Establishing a drone base on an island close to Turkey would violate the island’s demilitarised status and harm peace and stability in the Aegean.”
Turkish Drones Add to Tensions With Israel
The same day Ankara dispatched a drone towards the Samothrace and Lemnos areas, Turkish tensions with Israel were also escalating.
Erdoğan issued a strongly worded attack on Israel, saying: “The radical, occupationist and murderous ideology called Zionism does not only target the peace of its neighbours, but also everyone who defends regional peace and human values.”
On Saturday evening, the Israeli Foreign Ministry responded, stating: “The anti-Semitic Erdoğan searches every few days for new levels of unrestrained incitement against the Jewish state, in an attempt to divert attention from his actions in the region.”
The report argued that this tension, alongside what Israel considers the Iranian threat, forms much of the background to remarks made around two months earlier by Amir Baram, director-general of Israel’s Ministry of War and a reserve major general, at the Herzliya Conference.
Baram said there was “an alignment of interests for the formation of a broader alliance extending from India through the UAE to Greece and Cyprus”.
Collective Deterrence Raises Israeli Concerns
The Makkah Mutual Defence Agreement is based on a principle of collective deterrence against aggression.
One of its provisions states that “any armed attack targeting one of the three countries shall be considered an attack on all of them”, a formulation resembling the collective defence principle contained in Article 5 of the NATO treaty.
The partnership also brings together significant and complementary strategic capabilities.
Turkey possesses NATO’s second-largest military, Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest oil exporter, and Pakistan is the only nuclear-armed state in the Muslim world. Coordination between the three therefore carries strategic weight extending well beyond their geographical borders.
Makkah Agreement Described as a Threat to Israel and the US
Joseph Puder, director of the Interfaith Taskforce for America and Israel, described the Makkah Mutual Defence Agreement between Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia as an “anti-Western alliance” that places Washington’s regional allies at risk.
Puder argued that US President Donald Trump had failed to consider the consequences for either the United States or Israel, or the possible reactions from Greece and India, after praising the agreement as a major, bold and important first step allowing its members to defend themselves more effectively.
Puder noted that Trump himself had signed a strategic defence agreement with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in November of the previous year, while the White House described the United States as Riyadh’s “principal strategic partner”.
He argued that Trump’s praise for the Makkah Agreement overlooked its long-term geopolitical consequences, which could negatively affect Israel, India and Greece and eventually the United States itself.
“The alliance appears designed to reduce American influence in the region and perhaps ultimately replace it,” Puder said.
He added: “It also appears that Saudi Arabia, after being subjected to missile attacks from Iran, is now seeking to consolidate its relationships with its Sunni Muslim allies.”
The Makkah Agreement has been given several labels, including an “Islamic NATO”, “Sunni NATO” and “Middle Eastern NATO”. Some of these descriptions may simply reflect commentators’ reliance on familiar alliance comparisons, while a Foreign Policy report described the pact as an “agreement without impact”.
