The Israeli military bombed the runway of Abu al-Duhur Military Airport in Syria’s Idlib province in the early hours of 18 August.
Israel claimed it had obtained intelligence indicating that a Turkish delegation had visited the airport and that Türkiye was preparing to expand its military presence in Syria.
The Turkish Ministry of Defence, however, confirmed that no Turkish military mission was present at the airbase either before or during the Israeli attack. US Ambassador to Ankara and Special Envoy for Syria and Iraq Thomas Barrack also said that the intelligence Israel relied upon in launching the strike on Abu al-Duhur Military Airport was incorrect.
The Israeli side says the strike on the military airport, located only around 60 kilometres from the Turkish border, was intended as a message to Ankara that Israel would not permit a Turkish military presence in Syria.
Israeli officials describe such a presence as a “red line” and regard the establishment of any Turkish base on Syrian territory as a threat to Israel’s security.
There is little doubt that an attack carried out so close to the Turkish border was intended as a message to Ankara, as Netanyahu’s government itself has indicated. That raises several questions: How has Ankara interpreted the message? How will it respond? And when?
Netanyahu’s Electoral Calculations
Ankara views the Israeli attack on Abu al-Duhur Military Airport as having several dimensions.
The first concerns Netanyahu’s electoral calculations. The Israeli prime minister is seeking, through escalation and displays of force, to raise his popularity ahead of the Knesset elections scheduled for 27 October.
Opinion polls indicate that Netanyahu’s Likud party is expected to lose 12 seats, reducing its representation in the Knesset from 32 seats to 20.
Netanyahu is therefore seeking to use hostility towards Türkiye as part of his election campaign.
Israel’s Concerns Over Türkiye’s Growing Influence
The second dimension concerns Israel’s fears over Türkiye’s growing power and influence in the region following the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, the improvement in Turkish-US relations and Ankara’s efforts to rebuild its relations with Riyadh and Cairo.
Türkiye’s major advances in the defence industry are also a source of concern for Israel, which regards any strengthening of military capabilities by states in the region as a threat.
Syria’s recovery and the reconstruction of its national army in coordination and cooperation with Türkiye would undoubtedly represent a nightmare for Tel Aviv.
Israel does not trust Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa or his government, and it would not trust any Syrian government that reflects the will of the Syrian people.
It would therefore be a mistake to view the Israeli attack merely as a temporary crisis linked to Netanyahu’s government.
The rivalry between Türkiye and Israel is likely to extend beyond Netanyahu.
Any Israeli government formed after the elections, whether led by Netanyahu or someone else, is likely to regard Türkiye and its growing regional influence as a threat to Israel.
The methods adopted by one Israeli government in confronting that perceived threat may differ from another, but efforts to curb Türkiye’s regional influence and prevent Syria from building a strong national army are likely to remain a consistent policy of the occupying state, regardless of which parties form the Israeli governing coalition.
Ankara Unlikely to Escalate Before Israeli Elections
Türkiye is aware of the different dimensions of its tensions with Israel and is preparing for all possibilities.
However, Ankara has no intention of allowing Netanyahu to exploit hostility towards Türkiye for electoral advantage.
For that reason, there is unlikely to be any Turkish response before the Knesset elections that would produce the escalation the Israeli prime minister appears to be seeking.
Media reports indicate that Azerbaijan has been working to reduce tensions between Ankara and Tel Aviv.
These de-escalation efforts can also include the meeting held in Jordan under US mediation between a senior Syrian delegation headed by Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani and Israeli officials. The meeting was aimed at reducing tensions following the Israeli bombing of Abu al-Duhur Military Airport.
Türkiye’s Response Will Focus on Military Strength
Türkiye’s response to Israel is expected to come through continued efforts to strengthen its military capabilities, complete national defence industry projects, support Syria in rebuilding and arming its national army, and protect Syria’s security, stability and territorial unity.
The Turkish Ministry of Defence has reiterated this position, saying Ankara will continue supporting Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity while working to establish a stable and secure structure in the country.
The Syrian delegation that met Israeli officials in Jordan also stressed that Syria is a sovereign state and has the full right to rebuild and develop its national army and determine its alliances and partnerships in accordance with its national interests.
Türkiye anticipated the possibility of such circumstances at an early stage and launched the “Terror-Free Türkiye” initiative to remove the Kurdistan Workers’ Party card from Israel’s hands, achieving considerable success in doing so.
Ankara also prevented Kurdish groups from being exploited in the war on Iran and thwarted an Israeli plan aimed at dividing Syria and keeping it weak by draining its strength through internal conflicts.
Türkiye is therefore expected to continue strengthening both its military capabilities and its regional influence as its most effective response to Israeli provocation.
It is also unlikely to allow Israel to dictate the limits of its relationship with Syria or permit threats from the leaders of the Zionist occupation to become an imposed reality.
