Relations between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu appear to be moving towards greater tension as elections approach in both the United States and Israel, with the US president and Israeli prime minister increasingly divided over the war in Gaza, Iran and the next steps in regional policy.
The Washington Post published an article by journalists Cat Zakrzewski, Lior Soroka and Karen DeYoung arguing that, with less than three months remaining before consequential elections in both countries, Trump and Netanyahu are being pulled in opposite directions by their respective domestic political imperatives.
On Sunday, Netanyahu issued an unusually direct public criticism of the White House, rejecting a US-backed plan for the next phase of Trump’s Gaza peace proposal.
Trump had previously announced that both Hamas and Israel had agreed to the plan, which envisages a reciprocal and gradual process under which Hamas would progressively give up its weapons in exchange for a phased Israeli withdrawal from areas it occupies in Gaza, currently amounting to more than 60 per cent of the territory.
Speaking at a government meeting on Sunday, Netanyahu presented himself as a leader willing to say “no” to the US president. He said the process was unacceptable and insisted that there would be no Israeli withdrawal unless all Hamas weapons were first surrendered and all tunnels dismantled.
“We are capable, and we know how to stand our ground, even in the face of our closest friends when necessary,” Netanyahu said.
Trump, meanwhile, is facing growing political pressure to demonstrate tangible achievements after praising the disarmament framework as a “historic” breakthrough. Public dissatisfaction with his handling of international affairs is increasing, including over the war with Iran, which faces growing opposition.
Michael Milshtein, a senior analyst at the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University, said: “Trump needs to show achievements before the midterm elections, especially given the absence of any progress on the Iranian and Ukrainian files.”
The dispute has brought into public view tensions that have been building for some time between Israel and the United States over Gaza’s future and, more recently, over the war with Iran.
Aaron David Miller, who served as a Middle East negotiator under several Democratic and Republican administrations and now works at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said he had never seen the US-Israel relationship under “greater strain” than it is now, as both sides seek to appeal to their domestic electoral bases.
He added, however, that Trump and Netanyahu are “highly skilled politicians in the art of deception and manoeuvring, and they still need each other, although ‘Bibi’ undoubtedly needs Trump more”.
Miller and other experts with extensive regional experience described the current situation as still being in what former US ambassador to Israel Tom Nides called the stage of “performance art”, one that has not yet affected the fundamental pillars of the US-Israel relationship. They cautioned, however, that this could change.
Brian Katulis, who has held several government positions in defence and foreign policy and now works at the Middle East Institute, said the two leaders are “chameleon-like figures who crave power and want to remain in office, so I think they will adapt their positions according to circumstances”.
The White House did not issue a public response to Netanyahu’s remarks on Sunday. An American official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, said Trump “has a strong relationship” with Netanyahu and that Israel “has always been a great ally of the United States”.
Referring to the international body created by Trump, the official said: “The roadmap concerns the relationship between the ‘Board of Peace’ and Hamas, while discussions with Israel continue.”
“Israel is not being asked to rely on trust or take irreversible steps before tangible and verified measures are taken on the ground. The objective remains the complete dismantling of weapons and ensuring that Gaza never again poses the kind of threat Israel faced on 7 October,” the official added, referring to the day on which 1,200 people were killed and around 250 others taken hostage in an attack carried out by Hamas.
Signs of Strain Over Gaza and Iran
Despite the official language of continuity, signs of tension have begun to emerge, particularly over Gaza and the war with Iran.
In a phone call on 1 June that included profanity, first reported by Axios and later confirmed by Trump, the US president called the Israeli prime minister “crazy” and criticised Israeli military strikes in Lebanon, arguing that they threatened ongoing negotiations with Tehran.
Speaking about Netanyahu in a later interview with the BBC, Trump said: “If I ask him to do something, he does it.”
Netanyahu had urged Trump to expand attacks on Iran, but Miller said: “Trump told him that it is no longer your war.”
“I think Trump has now adopted an economic strategy that, if continued for six or eight months, could perhaps lead to the collapse of the Iranian economy,” Miller added.
As Trump’s domestic approval ratings decline and American public disillusionment with Israel grows, allied Arab governments have also become more sceptical of his foreign-policy capabilities.
Miller said: “This war of choice with Iran has placed him in a relationship with Persian Gulf states that I do not think generates much confidence in Trump’s ability to develop strategy. He opened this box without having any way to close it.”
Katulis said: “Across the Middle East, there is a belief that Trump is effectively incapable of getting things done. That is partly due to the trait he prides himself on, which is unpredictability. His ability to deliver results is diminishing.”
If media attention on Iran declines, political pressure on Trump, and in turn Trump’s pressure on Israel, is likely to intensify over moving to the next phase of his Gaza peace plan.
Brent Buchanan, president and founder of the Republican polling firm Cygnal, said many Trump voters want to see him apply an “America First” agenda abroad and are frustrated that he initiated a confrontation with Iran after campaigning on promises to keep the United States out of foreign wars.
“Almost nobody in America wants us directing our efforts towards foreign issues right now,” Buchanan said, noting that voters are far more focused on the cost of living and the economy.
Netanyahu Faces Pressure From the Far Right
Netanyahu, meanwhile, is under intense pressure from far-right members of his governing coalition.
Immediately after Trump praised the new Gaza plan, several senior ministers in Netanyahu’s government attacked it. In a letter to the prime minister, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich described the plan as “dangerous for Israel” and insisted that Hamas must be completely disarmed before any Israeli withdrawal from the territory.
Gail Talshir, a professor of political science at the Hebrew University, said: “The person who effectively determines Netanyahu’s policy is Smotrich and the far-right settler lawmakers.”
“Netanyahu is torn between the promises he made to Trump and the policy of the far right, which refuses to withdraw even to the ‘yellow line’,” she added, referring to the line separating areas under Israeli military control in Gaza from territory controlled by Hamas.
Trump’s peace plan had originally allowed Israel to control around 53 per cent of the Gaza Strip. Israeli forces subsequently expanded that area to more than 60 per cent, while Netanyahu recently said he had instructed the military to move its lines so that they encompassed 70 per cent of Gaza.
There are, however, indications on the ground that parts of the plan are beginning to take shape.
According to Israeli media, the Israeli army will now be required to obtain approval from the chief of staff before carrying out any targeted assassination of an armed fighter who does not pose an immediate threat.
In an interview with Israel’s Channel 12 on Sunday, Nikolay Mladenov, the senior diplomat overseeing the Gaza ceasefire file, said: “No one is obliged to do anything, and Israel is the last party being asked to do so, before we see actual and verified steps on the ground.”
He added that the process “can be stopped at any stage”.
Milshtein, who also previously served as an adviser to the Israeli military on Palestinian affairs, estimated that a withdrawal back to the original “yellow line” and the beginning of Gaza’s reconstruction could take place without requiring the complete disarmament of Hamas.
“There is growing impatience from Trump over what has happened during the past year, with Israel simply holding the yellow line and continuing strikes without making progress” towards the next phase of the peace agreement, he said.
“Netanyahu will try to persuade Trump to postpone discussion of the withdrawal until after the elections. The fundamental question is: will Trump agree?”
October Election Could Reshape Netanyahu’s Future
Many Israelis view the October election, the first since the 2023 Hamas attack, as a decisive moment.
If the results reflect recent polling by Israeli media on Netanyahu’s popularity, he will be unable to form the next governing coalition. Many voters remain angry that Netanyahu has avoided taking full personal responsibility for the Hamas attack and has sought to distance himself from the military failure to prevent it.
His political rivals, including former chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot and former prime minister Naftali Bennett, pose a threat to his hold on power. Polling indicates that opposition parties have a stronger chance of forming a coalition capable of securing the 61 seats required to control the 120-seat Knesset.
Netanyahu, however, remains the longest-serving prime minister in Israel’s history and has demonstrated an exceptional ability to survive politically.
The issue also carries a highly personal dimension because of his continuing legal troubles. Netanyahu faces charges of fraud, breach of trust and bribery in three cases that have been before the court for more than six years.
