The United States and the Israeli occupation appear to be moving towards preserving the status quo across several major Middle Eastern fronts in the coming period, with military escalation against Iran being frozen while economic pressure continues.
At the same time, arrangements in the Gaza Strip are moving forward without resolving disagreements over the next phase, amid expectations that the broader regional picture will remain largely unchanged until after elections in both Israel and the United States.
The Hebrew newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth, in an analysis by Ron Ben-Yishai, said the principal arenas in which the United States and Israel are active and coordinating are moving towards maintaining the current situation.
According to the analysis, US President Donald Trump’s administration has altered its approach towards Iran after concluding that negotiations with the authorities in Tehran and their representatives are unlikely to produce practical results in the near future.
Trump described the shift as “lowering the media profile” during an interview with Channel 12 journalist Barak Ravid.
Rather than continuing threats or escalating the confrontation, Trump has decided to enter a pause on both political negotiations and military action while maintaining economic pressure on Iran.
According to Yedioth Ahronoth, Washington will continue enforcing existing sanctions against the Iranian government, alongside the naval blockade imposed by US Navy vessels on Iranian ports.
Citing sources, the newspaper said the Middle East pause is expected to continue until after the US congressional midterm elections scheduled for 8 November, and possibly slightly longer.
The administration would then conduct a new assessment, potentially in coordination with a new Israeli government that could emerge following Israel’s elections.
Only after that assessment would Washington decide whether to resume its military campaign against Iran or pursue another course using different means.
Oil and the Strait of Hormuz Remain an Exception
Yedioth Ahronoth said there is one important exception to the pause.
The United States is prepared to allow crude oil and natural gas to leave the Middle East by any available route, including through an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz currently being negotiated between Iran and Oman.
The newspaper said the United States had secretly participated in those talks, but is now allowing Tehran and Muscat to reach any arrangement acceptable to both sides.
Washington has imposed one condition: vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz must not pay transit fees to Iran, or they will face US sanctions.
All other details are being left to direct negotiations between Iran and Oman.
According to the report, Iran is expected to benefit from the arrangement because the United States would not prevent vessels carrying Iranian oil and gas from crossing the Strait of Hormuz and heading westward, including towards China, Pakistan and India.
At the same time, the US Navy will continue enforcing its blockade in the Indian Ocean and at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz against ships carrying goods to Iranian ports.
Washington hopes this approach will achieve at least a partial reopening of the strait and help ease the global oil price crisis, which is also affecting the US market.
Four Reasons Behind Trump’s Strategic Shift
Yedioth Ahronoth identified four principal factors that pushed Trump and his administration to change course.
The first is Trump’s desire to preserve the Republican majority in both chambers of Congress during the November midterm elections.
Maintaining that majority would give him broad freedom of action across several issues, including the option of renewing the war against Iran if he chose to do so.
Losing control of either the Senate or the House of Representatives would restrict his ability to act on several fronts, including Iran.
The newspaper said the war is unpopular among Americans, including among some Trump supporters, while petrol and diesel prices could influence voting decisions and potentially alter the balance of power in Congress.
For that reason, Trump is seeking to get through the next three months without American soldiers returning home in coffins and without petrol prices exceeding four dollars per gallon.
The second factor, according to the newspaper, is the US conclusion that hardline forces within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and clerics close to them have been taking increasingly rigid positions in negotiations because they perceive the United States as weak and believe Trump is unwilling to carry out his threats of military escalation.
According to the analysis, this encouraged the Iranian side to raise its demands almost daily and advance conditions that Washington regards as amounting to complete surrender.
Because of what the newspaper described as Iranian “arrogance”, even strong supporters of negotiations, including US Vice President JD Vance, have concluded that there is currently no realistic possibility of negotiating with Tehran over the nuclear file or even the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The third factor is Iran’s deteriorating economic situation.
According to Yedioth Ahronoth, the United States, acting on advice from Israel, wants to give economic pressure time to threaten the survival of the Iranian government.
Washington hopes this could, within several months, create conditions for what it views as more pragmatic negotiations, or possibly lead to the government’s collapse sooner.
Despite the economic difficulties, Iranians are not taking to the streets in large numbers.
The newspaper attributed this mainly to the fact that the war formally remains ongoing, arguing that populations in such circumstances tend to rally behind their governments, or at least remain at home.
The fourth factor is Washington’s desire to produce and replenish weapons stocks that were heavily depleted during the two previous military operations against Iran.
Yedioth Ahronoth said the US Department of Defense is significantly accelerating production of both interceptor and offensive missiles in preparation for a possible renewed escalation.
The objective is to allow the United States to protect its forces and Gulf states without risking a fall in strategic weapons inventories to levels that could undermine its ability to confront China if Beijing attempted to exploit Washington’s focus on the Middle East to attack Taiwan.
Washington Is Not Declaring the War Over
According to the newspaper, these four factors led Trump and his administration to decide on a military ceasefire that is expected to continue until at least the end of November.
Contrary to some reports from the United States, Trump does not appear to intend to declare victory and announce the end of the war.
Instead, Washington is currently choosing to intensify economic pressure while maintaining military leverage over Iran in preparation for a later move, whether diplomatic or military, depending on developments.
Yedioth Ahronoth argued that the continued presence of substantial US naval and air forces in the Middle East, without any reduction in their deployment, supports this assessment.
The newspaper said this development primarily serves Israeli interests because it ensures the continuation of US sanctions against Iran and prevents their removal, while maintaining both the economic and naval blockade.
Under these conditions, the analysis said Iran would face significant difficulty restarting large-scale ballistic missile production, let alone entering a nuclear arms race.
Continued US and Israeli surveillance of Iran, together with the deterioration of its economy, would also restrict Tehran’s ability to support Hezbollah and the Houthis.
The newspaper said this situation fully aligns with the recommendations of Israel’s security establishment and intelligence community, which according to the analysis explains why Benjamin Netanyahu and his government have remained largely silent.
Gaza: Two Parallel Tracks
Ben-Yishai then turned to Gaza, arguing that much of the confusion surrounding the situation there stems from the mixing of two separate processes.
The first is proceeding with full coordination and agreement between the United States and Israel, specifically involving the US military, the Board of Peace and the Israeli military.
Preparations are underway for the next steps under Trump’s original 20-point plan.
On the ground, work is being prepared for the establishment of a pilot residential neighbourhood in an open area between Khan Younis and Rafah.
Palestinians currently living in areas under Hamas control would be expected to move there.
According to the newspaper, the intended residents would be people not involved in political activity who are willing to live in areas east of the yellow line under Israeli control.
The temporary neighbourhood would be presented as an initial step towards permanent residence following the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip.
Residents would reportedly undergo screening intended to confirm that they are not affiliated with Hamas.
The second project, according to Yedioth Ahronoth, involves establishing a camp for the multinational stabilisation force in an open area north of Rafah.
The force would eventually enter Gaza and separate the territory from Hamas as the movement disarmed and the Israeli military withdrew from the area.
The newspaper said these projects, together with related initiatives, are being implemented behind the yellow line in territory currently controlled by the Israeli military.
Israel has no intention at this stage of withdrawing from these areas, even as the transitional movement of Gaza residents into the new neighbourhood begins.
This activity is being coordinated between the Israeli military, the US headquarters in Kiryat Gat and the Board of Peace.
According to the newspaper, it is separate from the 15-point “roadmap” announced by the Board of Peace last week.
Israeli Dispute With the Board of Peace
The 15-point roadmap is currently being discussed at the political level between the Israeli government in Jerusalem and the Board of Peace, with disagreement centred on one principal issue.
According to Yedioth Ahronoth, Israel is demanding that any withdrawal towards the middle line defined in Trump’s 20-point plan take place only after Hamas has first surrendered all of its weapons.
Israel also wants guarantees that a new Palestinian government in Gaza would not stockpile weapons in a way that could allow Hamas to regain control of the territory at a later stage.
By contrast, the Board of Peace, chaired by Bulgarian diplomat Nikolay Mladenov, proposes that Hamas disarm gradually, area by area, with the Israeli military withdrawing from each area in parallel.
Mladenov has also proposed that Israel rely on a US-led verification committee.
The newspaper said Netanyahu announced yesterday that this arrangement was unacceptable to the Israeli government, while the US administration had not issued a response.
Yedioth Ahronoth assessed that Trump and his administration understand that Netanyahu cannot accept the Board of Peace proposal, which according to the Israeli position could allow Hamas to recover, particularly with decisive Israeli elections approaching.
Ben-Yishai therefore concluded that it is highly plausible that no significant changes will take place on the Iranian, Gaza or even Lebanese fronts until after both the Israeli elections and the US midterm elections.
