The Gaza Board of Peace has finally announced that an agreement has been reached to disarm Hamas and the other Palestinian factions in the Gaza Strip.
Under the agreement, Gaza would be governed by a unified technocratic administration. Hamas and all other factions would be required to surrender their weapons within six to eight months, hand over maps of the tunnel network, and disclose the locations of weapons manufacturing sites and storage facilities.
All armed factions would be dissolved, including those supported by Israel. Hamas members would be granted amnesty and permitted to remain in Gaza.
These are all obligations imposed on the Palestinian side. The central question, however, is what they would receive in return.
Israeli Withdrawal Tied to Disarmament
Israel would withdraw to the Yellow Line after the agreement is signed, which is expected to take place in the coming days.
Any further withdrawal would be conditional upon the complete implementation of the disarmament process.
The agreement would also halt Israeli assassinations targeting resistance leaders and members, except in cases where Israel claims that its forces face a threat.
A complete Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip would therefore depend on the resistance fully surrendering its weapons. In other words, Israel would supposedly withdraw only after the resistance had been disarmed.
In my view, once the resistance gives up its weapons, there will be no guarantees that Israel will withdraw from Gaza.
The agreement also gives Israel the right to bomb the Gaza Strip whenever it believes its forces are under threat. This is effectively what is already happening.
Since 10 October last year, 1,200 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli attacks on the Strip, yet the mediators have taken no action to stop those assaults.
Can Israel Be Trusted to Honour the Agreement?
Given the terms that have emerged publicly, will this agreement actually be implemented, and will the resistance surrender its weapons?
Any assessment must take into account that the enemy does not respect agreements or laws.
Israel repeatedly violated the ceasefire in Lebanon from September 2024 until March 2026, just as it has continued violating the Gaza ceasefire from October 2025 until today.
Israel does not appear willing to make concessions, including withdrawing from the Gaza Strip.
It wants the resistance to surrender its weapons, after which it could destroy what remains of Gaza and kill the surviving resistance leaders. The resistance would then possess nothing with which to defend itself.
This is not merely my own assessment. It reflects statements made by Israeli officials and ministers within Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right government.
Disarmament Would Threaten the Resistance’s Existence
I do not expect this agreement to be completed, nor do I expect the resistance to surrender its weapons.
The resistance understands clearly that disarmament would mean the end of its existence.
The occupation also has no intention of withdrawing from the Gaza Strip. Bezalel Smotrich continues to declare that Israel will establish three settlements in northern Gaza.
Gaza’s crisis will not be resolved by disarming the resistance. It will be resolved when the occupation leaves Gaza.
The resistance leadership is deeply aware of history and understands the dangers of surrendering its weapons. For that reason, I believe disarmament remains unlikely, just as it did in the case of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The coming days and weeks will reveal what happens next.
The next several weeks and months will be crucial for the future of the Palestinian cause, both regarding attempts to disarm the resistance and the escalating situation in the West Bank.
The approaching Israeli elections must also not be overlooked. They will undoubtedly become a major factor shaping Israeli policy.
