Despite increasingly forceful Israeli rhetoric suggesting that a new confrontation with Iran is imminent, signals from Washington point in a different direction. US President Donald Trump appears reluctant to pursue a broad military escalation, as military, political and regional considerations push his administration to reassess its options.
Amos Harel, the military analyst for the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, said the decision not to proceed with the large-scale US attack that had been expected against Iran, following days of anticipation, showed that escalation remained under review within the American administration despite continued Israeli pressure for a renewed confrontation.
Harel noted that the United States carried out no air strikes on Iran on Saturday after 13 consecutive nights of bombing. He described the pause as significant, particularly after two days of uncertainty before the reasons for postponing the major American attack became clear.
Missile Shortages Affect Washington’s Calculations
According to Harel, The New York Times cited sources within the US administration as saying that Trump postponed the attack because US Central Command was facing shortages in its missile stockpiles, particularly Patriot missiles.
Harel argued that such shortages do not emerge suddenly, raising questions about why the issue had only now become a decisive factor in Washington’s calculations.
The New York Times also reported that other considerations were raised during Trump’s discussions with advisers and military commanders over the weekend.
These included doubts over whether continued military strikes would be more effective than the economic pressure already being imposed on Iran, as well as opposition from Gulf states to any renewed escalation.
Saudi Arabia, which is facing attacks from Yemen’s Houthis, is deeply concerned about the confrontation widening, while US officials continue to examine settlement proposals submitted by mediators, Harel said.
Three Conclusions From the Latest Developments
Harel said the latest developments led to three main conclusions.
The first is that all scenarios remain possible. Although Trump appears unenthusiastic about every available option, he may decide either to escalate or withdraw at any moment.
The second conclusion is that Trump’s statements should not be taken at face value. The US president has previously issued threats that were never implemented and has shown little hesitation in reversing his position when circumstances changed.
The third conclusion, Harel said, is that Israeli assessments of US policy should be treated cautiously.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is interested in drawing the Israeli occupation into a new war, and figures close to him are therefore promoting expectations that support this direction. Israeli intelligence agencies, however, do not possess a complete understanding of the calculations being made by Trump and his advisers.
Israeli Efforts to Project an Imminent Crisis
Despite the temporary suspension of US air strikes, some within the Israeli occupation continue to promote the impression that military escalation is inevitable.
Harel pointed to reports on Sunday morning that the Israeli security cabinet had convened inside a heavily fortified underground facility.
He argued that leaking such information, as has occurred on previous occasions, was intended to create a sense of emergency and possibly send Iran a message that another round of fighting was approaching.
He also questioned whether the United States had encouraged the leaks.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is travelling to the United States on Monday to attend the funeral of Senator Lindsey Graham and meet President Trump.
The regional escalation sought by Netanyahu remains possible, but Trump currently appears less enthusiastic about pursuing that course, while the Israeli public continues to follow developments with concern.
