Tensions between the United States and Iran appear to be moving towards further escalation, after a week of targeted US strikes failed to revive negotiations or reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The extensive American attacks struck bridges and railway stations, as well as what US Central Command described as missile and drone launch sites, observation towers and naval vessels. So far, however, they have failed to impose the conditions sought by President Donald Trump.
Iran responded by striking what it described as American interests across the region. Yet both sides have shown a degree of restraint in limiting the geographical scope of their attacks.
US strikes have largely remained concentrated along Iran’s southern coastline and borders, targeting energy and communications infrastructure and military positions stretching from Khuzestan to Bushehr, Bandar Abbas, and Sistan and Baluchestan.
The attacks have focused particularly heavily on Hormozgan Province, including Bandar Abbas and areas overlooking the Strait of Hormuz, according to Al Jazeera’s Tehran bureau chief, Noureddine Al-Daghir.
A Possible US Ground Landing
Earlier today, reports emerged of communications and internet disruptions in Bandar Abbas following attacks on 16 telecommunications towers. Al-Daghir said services had since resumed after the damage caused by the strikes was repaired.
He nevertheless believes Iran’s response may remain proportionate to the scale of the American attacks, as it did during the previous seven days.
During that period, Iranian retaliation was primarily directed at facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan, with more limited attacks affecting Qatar and Oman.
Iranian officials expect the United States to expand its operations along Iran’s southern coastline and border regions in the coming days. They also believe Washington may attempt a ground landing on islands overlooking the Strait of Hormuz.
According to Al-Daghir, previous US strikes targeted specific communications infrastructure, defensive positions and weapons sites, particularly on the islands of Hormuz, Larak, Qeshm, Greater Tunb, Lesser Tunb and Abu Musa.
The selection of these targets appeared to indicate preparations to clear the way for forces that may be preparing to enter the islands.
The commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ naval forces said the United States had no option but to withdraw from the Gulf. Al-Daghir described the statement as an Iranian attempt to keep the current confrontation confined to the Strait of Hormuz and American interests within the region.
He pointed to the Revolutionary Guard’s statements that Iran would reopen the strait if US strikes stopped as further evidence of this approach.
At the same time, however, Iranian officials are not ruling out a major expansion of military operations during the coming week.
Iran’s current military assessment anticipates a possible ground landing on the islands overlooking Hormuz and potentially an expansion of operations deeper inside Iranian territory.
Al-Daghir said the Revolutionary Guard would respond to either scenario by widening its attacks against economic and energy infrastructure across the region as a form of retaliation. Iran could also seek to open additional fronts.
The War Could Expand Beyond Hormuz
Some Iranian military figures are currently discussing bringing the Bab al-Mandab Strait into the confrontation.
Such a move could disrupt shipping through the Suez Canal and increase economic pressure on the United States, according to Al-Daghir.
Assessments in Washington do not differ greatly from those circulating in Iran.
Al Jazeera correspondent Ahmed Hazem said US strikes during the past week had focused on Iranian military capabilities around the Strait of Hormuz, including missile launchers, boats and drones.
However, a military official told The Wall Street Journal that Trump was “considering a broader course because the current situation is not pushing Tehran towards negotiations or reopening the strait”.
The details of any expanded military campaign remain unclear.
Trump has previously spoken about striking water and energy facilities, bridges and possibly an important nuclear site at Jabal al-Fas if necessary to force Iran to make concessions.
The US president believes that military operations and a naval blockade will eventually produce results, although not quickly. A blockade of Iranian ports would exert pressure gradually by reducing the volume of goods entering the country, according to Al Jazeera’s Washington correspondent.
Trump has not yet made a final decision, despite raising the possibility several times.
Democrats have criticised the war as futile, arguing that the Trump administration failed to plan for it and has drawn Washington into another Middle Eastern quagmire.
Pressure for Iran’s Surrender
Trump’s allies, by contrast, support launching further attacks to close off every available option for Iran.
They believe Tehran “will not accept compromise solutions and must be pushed towards surrender”, according to Hazem.
This faction regards the memorandum of understanding as “a victory for Tehran” and describes it as “the greatest disappointment and confusion in US foreign policy”.
Supporters of the war within the United States also believe the current negotiations are worthless and will not produce any result with the Iranian side.
On the battlefield, the number of US military personnel injured in the war with Iran has risen to 13 since last Monday, according to the Pentagon’s official casualty figures.
Meanwhile, Mohsen Rezaei, military adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader, warned that Iran would enter a “phase of comprehensive attack” if US strikes continued for more than “two to three days”.
