The Middle East is approaching a critical turning point, with the region caught between faltering diplomatic efforts and the possibility that the current escalation will reach its peak in the coming days. The consequences are already being felt strongly across the Strait of Hormuz and the surrounding area.
Tensions intensified after Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal Affairs, Kazem Gharibabadi, announced that Tehran no longer considered itself bound by the memorandum of understanding with the United States. He blamed Washington for withdrawing from the agreement and failing to comply with its provisions.
Gharibabadi stressed that any return to the memorandum would depend on the principle of “commitment in exchange for commitment”, meaning that Tehran would comply only if Washington first fulfilled its obligations.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf expressed a similar position, saying Iran could return to the memorandum if the United States demonstrated genuine compliance.
Meanwhile, Brigadier General Majid Mousavi, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Aerospace Force, warned on Friday that Tehran would not halt its attacks across the region until the United States stopped striking Iran’s southern coast and the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian state television also quoted an army spokesman as saying: “If the Americans target the infrastructure of the Islamic Republic, then all infrastructure across the region will become legitimate targets for Iran.”
Iran Says It Is Acting in Self-Defence
Iran has justified its position during the seven nights since the renewed escalation by arguing that it is acting in self-defence against sensitive US attacks that are increasingly reaching deep into Iranian territory and targeting critical infrastructure.
According to Al Jazeera’s Tehran bureau chief, Noureddine Al-Daghir, Iranian military operations have focused on bridges and facilities used by the US military in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan, as announced by the Revolutionary Guard.
Military observers have described these attacks as merely the starting point, warning that Iran could significantly expand its target list in response to any widening of US operations.
Can the Mediators Prevent a Wider War?
Al-Daghir said the success of efforts to return both sides to the negotiating table would depend largely on the intensity of military operations on the ground.
Meaningful diplomatic progress is unlikely while the two sides continue escalating their attacks.
Traditional mediators, including Qatar, Pakistan and Oman, are reportedly working to prevent a broader regional confrontation. The results of these efforts may become clearer during the coming week.
However, their prospects remain closely tied to developments on the battlefield, with further escalation from both Washington and Tehran considered increasingly likely.
US Strikes Focus on the Strait of Hormuz
US attacks are continuing against military sites and communications infrastructure in Hormozgan Province and on the islands overlooking the Strait of Hormuz.
These operations are being interpreted as an attempt to reduce Iran’s ability to monitor and secure the waterway.
Al-Daghir said American forces have focused on the seven strategic islands that control access to the Strait of Hormuz. Air and naval strikes have hit Hormuz and Larak islands, both of which hold exceptional strategic importance because international shipping must pass through the northern Gulf sector near them.
According to Iranian military assessments cited by Al-Daghir, the concentration of attacks on communications facilities and military infrastructure, including bridges and roads connecting different areas, may represent logistical preparation for possible ground landings.
Such operations could target the islands or Iran’s coastal interior, potentially marking a fundamental shift in the nature of the conflict.
Signs of a Major Escalation
Further indications of a possible expansion emerged on Friday when the US website Axios, citing American and Israeli officials, reported that the Trump administration had informed Israel that it would deploy dozens of additional aerial refuelling aircraft to the country.
The deployment is reportedly intended to prepare for the possible expansion of military operations against Iran.
The website added that President Donald Trump was considering a large-scale attack on Iran that would exceed the current strikes around Hormuz in both size and scope.
New military plans were reportedly presented to Trump during a meeting in the White House Situation Room last Tuesday.
Israeli officials told Axios that the United States intended to send dozens of additional refuelling aircraft in the coming days, restoring their numbers to the level seen at the beginning of the war against Iran.
With the memorandum of understanding effectively suspended, mediation efforts struggling to keep pace with battlefield developments and both sides preparing for a possible expansion of operations, the coming week is likely to determine whether the region moves back towards negotiations or enters a far broader military confrontation.
