A newly published study by the Turkish National Intelligence Academy offers a detailed assessment of the recent US Israeli conflict with Iran, examining its military, geopolitical and strategic implications while outlining how Ankara is adapting its defence posture for future conflicts.
Established in 2023, the Turkish National Intelligence Academy was created to develop Turkey’s strategic understanding of regional and international developments by integrating intelligence studies with security, military and geopolitical analysis. In May 2026, the academy released a comprehensive report titled The US Israeli Iranian War: A Military and Geopolitical Perspective, making it the second major study produced on the conflict following its earlier analysis of the 2025 Iran Israel war.
Unlike a purely academic review, several recommendations from the academy’s previous report have already been translated into policy, including accelerating Turkey’s acquisition of Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft and beginning the construction of public shelters across major Turkish cities to improve resilience against missile attacks and future conflicts.
The Limits of Air Superiority
One of the study’s central conclusions is that the conflict challenged long held assumptions about absolute air superiority.
Although the United States and Israel possessed overwhelming technological and aerial advantages, Iranian air defences demonstrated greater resilience than expected. Mobile air defence systems using electro optical and infrared technologies reportedly proved less vulnerable to electronic warfare, while Iranian missile and drone operations continued despite sustained air attacks.
The study argues that the war exposed the growing imbalance between the cost of attack and the cost of defence. Iranian drones, reportedly costing between US$20,000 and US$60,000 each, forced the use of interceptor missiles worth millions of dollars, including Patriot and THAAD systems. This transformed the conflict into a costly war of attrition that depleted interceptor stockpiles while placing sustained operational and financial pressure on defensive forces.
It also concludes that even sophisticated multi layered air defence systems cannot guarantee complete protection when confronted by coordinated attacks involving drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles launched simultaneously from different directions and altitudes.
For this reason, Turkey is placing greater emphasis on its planned Steel Dome air defence project, combining missile interception with satellite surveillance, electronic warfare, radar networks, secure communications, artificial intelligence and integrated command systems. The report also recommends expanding lower cost defensive options such as directed energy weapons, laser systems and interceptor drones.
The academy further stresses the need to protect critical infrastructure through blast resistant architecture, underground construction, geographically dispersed facilities and decentralised military structures capable of operating even if senior command is disrupted.
Artificial Intelligence Is Reshaping Warfare
According to the study, the conflict demonstrated that military superiority increasingly depends not simply on aircraft or weapons, but on data processing, network integration and decision making speed.
The United States and Israel reportedly relied heavily on artificial intelligence systems capable of processing vast amounts of battlefield information, prioritising targets and matching them with appropriate weapons in real time. The report cites systems such as Maven, developed with Palantir technologies, Anthropic’s Claude AI model, and Israeli platforms including Lavender and Gospel.
These technologies significantly shortened the decision cycle between detecting, identifying and striking targets, particularly mobile missile launchers. The report references the OODA decision cycle developed by military strategist John Boyd, arguing that reducing the time between observation and action increasingly determines operational success.
Artificial intelligence also played a major role in missile defence by rapidly assessing incoming threats, predicting impact locations and prioritising interceptions. However, the study warns that greater automation also increases the risk of miscalculation when systems operate under extreme battlefield pressure.
Drones, Production Capacity and Military Sustainability
The report highlights the growing role of inexpensive drones working alongside ballistic and cruise missiles to overwhelm sophisticated air defence systems.
It recommends expanding Turkey’s drone capabilities while improving secure communications, autonomous navigation, artificial intelligence integration and the coordinated management of large drone swarms. At the same time, it cautions that drones remain vulnerable to electronic warfare because of their dependence on communications and navigation systems.
The conflict also revived questions about the future effectiveness of large and expensive military platforms such as aircraft carriers, which are becoming increasingly exposed to precision missiles, drones and naval mines.
Another major lesson concerns industrial capacity. According to the report, advanced technology alone is insufficient unless supported by the ability to rapidly replenish ammunition and sustain production throughout prolonged wars. Turkey is therefore encouraged to expand domestic defence manufacturing, reduce dependence on imported electronics and critical components, and strengthen its indigenous defence industry.
The Home Front as a Battlefield
The study argues that modern warfare increasingly targets societies as much as militaries.
Beyond protecting civilians from bombardment, governments must now prepare for attacks on energy networks, ports, communications systems and public services designed to weaken economic stability and public morale.
Turkey therefore considers expanding public shelters, modernising warning systems and improving crisis management as essential components of national defence.
The report also highlights the growing importance of information warfare. Artificial intelligence generated images, fabricated media, coordinated disinformation campaigns and psychological operations have made distinguishing fact from manipulation increasingly difficult. As a result, Ankara views digital infrastructure, cyber security and information resilience as vital elements of national security.
Political and Regional Assessments
The academy concludes that expectations of Iran’s political collapse during the conflict proved unrealistic. Despite the scale of military damage, the report argues that neither regime collapse nor immediate internal fragmentation became likely outcomes.
It also concludes that Iranian opposition groups abroad, particularly supporters of Reza Pahlavi, failed to transform the conflict into a political turning point because many Iranians prioritised national stability over political divisions during wartime.
While acknowledging the expanding influence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the report does not expect Iran to evolve into a conventional military dictatorship. Instead, it argues that future political developments will depend largely on post war economic conditions, possible constitutional reforms and the state’s ability to address mounting social and financial pressures.
Economically, the report identifies damage to industrial infrastructure, declining oil revenues, continuing sanctions and regional instability as Iran’s most significant long term challenges.
A Changing Regional Order
The study argues that the conflict reflects the continuing erosion of the post Cold War international order and demonstrates the declining effectiveness of international institutions in regulating the use of force.
It also suggests that renewed American military engagement in the Middle East may create strategic opportunities for both China and Russia while increasing the importance of regional middle powers such as Turkey.
From Ankara’s perspective, the report argues that neither Iran’s collapse nor expanding Israeli regional influence would serve Turkish interests. During the conflict, Turkey avoided direct involvement, declined to allow its airspace to be used for military operations against Iran and supported diplomatic efforts aimed at keeping negotiation channels open.
At the same time, the study warns of growing concerns over refugee flows, economic disruption, instability in Iraq and Syria, Kurdish related security challenges and expanding Israeli influence across the region.
It also recommends closer monitoring of media campaigns viewed as hostile to Turkey, together with stronger measures to counter disinformation and influence operations.
Recommendations for Turkey
The report concludes that the conflict fundamentally reshaped the regional security environment and requires Turkey to rethink its long term defence strategy.
It recommends adopting what it describes as a “three dimensional depth” approach based on three pillars: technological superiority, large scale industrial production and the ability to sustain manufacturing throughout extended conflicts.
Rather than attempting to create an impenetrable nationwide missile shield, the study recommends building a flexible, distributed air defence network capable of operating independently through mobile, interconnected systems.
It also calls for greater investment in artificial intelligence, cyber warfare, electronic warfare, strategic communications, psychological operations and counter disinformation capabilities, alongside more resilient command structures, expanded underground production facilities and improved protection for critical infrastructure.
Regionally, the academy argues that Turkey should pursue broader multilateral partnerships while preserving communication channels during crises and strengthening alternative trade and energy corridors such as the Development Road and the Middle Corridor.
The study ultimately concludes that the conflict marks a turning point in the international system. It argues that Turkey has an opportunity to strengthen its regional and global position by combining military capability, economic resilience, technological independence and strategic flexibility in an increasingly unstable geopolitical environment.
