“Can Israel survive?”
That was the question posed by the American magazine Newsweek in an extensive analysis examining Israel’s future in the aftermath of its recent war with Iran. The report argues that a state once seen as being at the height of its military power is now facing unprecedented internal and external challenges that could threaten its long term stability.
Writer Matthew Tostevin notes that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared in April that Israel had reached the “peak of its power”. Subsequent developments, however, have revealed the limits of that power and exposed the fragility of Israel’s regional and international position.
According to the report, the agreement reached by US President Donald Trump to end the war with Iran left Israel sidelined. The deal reportedly ignored Israel’s key demands, including dismantling Iran’s missile capabilities and ending Tehran’s support for its network of regional allies.
The report also points to signs of tension between Trump and Netanyahu, despite the US president previously being described as one of the most pro Israel leaders in American history.
Trump was quoted as saying that Israel “would not have survived without his intervention”, a remark that underscored the extent of Israel’s dependence on American support.
An Existential Moment
The report argues that while the war slowed Iran’s nuclear programme, it did not eliminate it.
Instead, it allowed Iran’s leadership to regroup, rebuild its capabilities gradually, and potentially revive its nuclear ambitions in the future, thereby altering the regional balance of power.
The report cites former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who described the current period as an “existential moment”. Bennett warned that prolonged wars exhaust Israeli society, strain the economy and military, and weaken Israel’s international standing.
It adds that despite the Israeli army’s military superiority, it is facing increasing pressure due to the expansion of multiple fronts.
Israel continues its military operations in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, maintains a military presence in southern Lebanon and parts of Syria, while its confrontation extends indirectly to Iran and Yemen.
According to the report, Israel’s long standing security doctrine of “mowing the grass”, which focused on managing limited threats through periodic military operations, has evolved into a broad regional confrontation that requires enormous resources and intensifies international anger because of the high civilian toll.
Daniel Levy, President of the US Middle East Project, told the magazine that Israel is “placing itself at risk” by pursuing an expansionist, zero sum strategy that is leaving it increasingly isolated and less capable of integrating into its regional environment.
Regional Challenges
On the Palestinian issue, the report notes that prospects for a two state solution are rapidly diminishing.
Netanyahu continues to reject the establishment of a Palestinian state, while opinion polls indicate that a majority of both Israelis and Palestinians now view the two state model as unworkable.
The report argues that Israel is also confronting new regional challenges, chief among them the rise of Turkish influence.
At the same time, Israel’s popularity has declined sharply across the West, particularly in the United States.
A recent poll found that six in ten Americans now hold an unfavourable view of Israel, compared with just 42 per cent in 2022.
Domestically, Israel is facing an escalating demographic challenge.
This stems both from the growing Arab population within the territories occupied in 1948 and from the rapid growth of the ultra-Orthodox Jewish community, many of whom oppose compulsory military service.
According to the report, these trends could threaten the stability of Israel’s governing coalition.
A Defining Period
Newsweek concludes that Israel is not facing an immediate existential threat.
Nevertheless, it is passing through a decisive period that could reshape its future entirely.
Growing international isolation, mounting military strain, and deepening internal divisions have combined to make the question, “Can Israel survive?”, more relevant and urgent than at any point in recent history.
