While much of the region has been preoccupied with military threats and security crises, a new strategic axis linking Israel, the United States, Greece and Cyprus has quietly been taking shape.
According to Israeli security circles, the project could reshape the balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean and further deepen tensions between Ankara and Tel Aviv.
Amit Yagur, a former senior security official who served in the Israeli military’s Planning and Intelligence Directorates, said that a new extension of the western wing of the Eastern Mediterranean energy corridor has recently been launched, laying the foundations for a new geopolitical structure connecting the Eastern Mediterranean and Europe.
Writing in the Israeli newspaper Maariv, Yagur said that while attention remains focused on regional threats and on statements made by US President Donald Trump, an important development has unfolded largely unnoticed.
The project was officially signed at the Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice University in Houston, Texas, by representatives of the United States, Israel, Greece and Cyprus.
Beyond Technology. A New Regional Order
According to Yagur, the new centre operates within the framework of the 3+1 Forum and aims to coordinate joint efforts among the four countries in research, cyber security and the physical protection of critical energy infrastructure.
However, he argued that beneath its technological branding lies a far more significant geopolitical shift.
On the surface, the project resembles a research and development centre.
In reality, Yagur said, its true significance lies in geography and strategic cooperation.
He described it as the conceptual and practical foundation of the western wing of the India Middle East Europe Economic Corridor, known as IMEC.
Under this arrangement, Israel would serve as the eastern gateway and the meeting point for continental connections stretching from Asia and the Gulf.
It would also become a central hub for energy, data and logistics moving westward.
Gas, Electricity and Europe’s Energy Security
Yagur explained that the new axis aims to connect natural gas networks and, in the future, electricity and hydrogen grids.
Cyprus would function as the maritime and geographical anchor ensuring continuity across these networks.
The island is expected to become a crucial connection point for undersea electricity cables and for the development of shared gas reserves.
Greece, meanwhile, would serve as the sovereign gateway to the European Union.
Energy and infrastructure arriving from the Middle East would pass through Greece into Europe, providing the continent with greater energy diversification and the strategic security it increasingly seeks.
Turkey and Egypt Face a New Challenge
According to Yagur, this project is likely to intensify competition over the shape of the Middle East following the war with Iran.
He argued that it should be viewed as part of a broader struggle among regional powers seeking to shape the emerging regional order.
In this context, he identified two major players from what he described as the “old order”.
The first is Turkey.
Yagur said Ankara has long aspired to become the exclusive energy corridor connecting Europe with Russia, the Caspian region and the Middle East.
Today, he argued, Turkey is moving to impose its “Blue Homeland” doctrine, under which it claims extensive maritime areas surrounding Cyprus and stretching between Cyprus and Greece.
According to him, this policy undermines the maritime sovereignty of both countries.
The second player is Egypt.
For years, Cairo has positioned itself as a regional natural gas hub through the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum and as a gateway to global trade through the Suez Canal.
Although Egypt’s interests remain significant, Yagur argued that the new axis reduces international markets’ exclusive dependence on Egyptian routes while offering a more decentralised and flexible security structure.
The American Factor
Yagur explained that the roots of this emerging arrangement lie in the trilateral security alliance between Israel, Greece and Cyprus.
Over time, this cooperation evolved into defence agreements, security procurements and regular military exercises.
Its primary objective, he said, is to secure the western flank of the IMEC corridor.
The role of the United States is particularly significant.
The establishment of this strategic energy centre on American soil, with direct participation from the US government, sends a clear message regarding Washington’s preferred regional alignment.
According to Yagur, American support effectively grants official legitimacy to this axis, despite Trump’s repeated statements describing Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as “my friend”.
He added that Washington’s involvement provides the project with political and security backing while sending a warning to any actor seeking to obstruct or undermine it.
The initiative formally connects American capital, technology and expertise with the geographical position of Israel, Cyprus and Greece in an effort to create a new regional order centred on energy, infrastructure and strategic cooperation.
Its impact, Yagur argued, will inevitably extend beyond the Eastern Mediterranean and shape Europe’s future as well.
More Friction With Turkey
Israeli circles believe the project could further inflame already strained relations with Turkey.
Ankara is expected to view the emerging axis as a direct challenge to its regional ambitions and as an attempt to curb its expanding influence across the Eastern Mediterranean and the wider region.
