Western intelligence sources believe Iran may have rebuilt significant parts of its missile arsenal during the ceasefire that began on 7 April, according to a report by Bloomberg.
The report, citing intelligence assessments, suggests Tehran may have incorporated newly manufactured Russian weapons into its missile inventory, potentially restoring its ability to respond forcefully to any future military confrontation.
Sources did not rule out the possibility that Iran used the roughly two month ceasefire period to regain access to underground storage facilities whose entrances had been sealed or damaged during the US-Israeli bombing campaign.
According to Bloomberg, these underground depots contain ballistic missiles as well as missile launch platforms.
Much of the Arsenal Remains Intact
Intelligence reports cited by Bloomberg indicate that Iran still possesses around three quarters of the munitions stockpile it had before the war.
The report added that Tehran is capable of replenishing these reserves relatively quickly.
The remaining inventory is believed to include Russian-made missiles of an unspecified type, reportedly manufactured within the past year.
Iran’s Ability to Produce Shahed Drones
A source familiar with the matter told Bloomberg that Iran remains capable of producing additional Shahed drones, provided it has access to essential materials such as fibreglass, explosives, guidance systems and engines.
However, the source acknowledged that obtaining some of these materials, particularly explosives, has become more difficult following weeks of US and Israeli strikes.
The Shahed drone, a long range loitering munition with a range of around 1,000 kilometres, is built largely from commercially available components.
Its production cost is estimated to be well below US$50,000 per unit.
Thousands of Missiles and Drones Used During the War
During the conflict, which began on 28 February and lasted until the ceasefire took effect on 7 April, Iran launched more than 1,850 missiles across the region.
It also deployed at least twice that number of Shahed drones, according to the report.
Iran’s Defence Industry Remains Operational
Kelly Grieco, a researcher at the Washington based Stimson Center, told Bloomberg that missile production is unlikely to become a major challenge for Iran, even during wartime.
She argued that Tehran’s retention of a large portion of its pre-war arsenal could make Washington think twice before considering a return to full scale military operations.
Becca Wasser, a defence analyst at Bloomberg Economics, offered a similar assessment.
Despite what the United States describes as tactical successes, she said Washington failed to achieve its broader objectives of crippling Iran’s defence industrial base or significantly weakening its missile programme.
During the first month of the war, the United States and Israel estimated that they had destroyed around two thirds of Iran’s missile launchers.
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth also claimed in mid-March that Iran’s offensive military capabilities had been reduced by 90 per cent.
The latest intelligence assessments, however, suggest Tehran may have recovered more quickly than many had anticipated.
