The reality on the ground appears to be the exact opposite of what is publicly declared. Every ceasefire agreement announced in Lebanon has seemingly become a gateway to renewed hostilities rather than a path to de-escalation.
No sooner had US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social about a ceasefire than reports began circulating about alleged tensions between him and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Media coverage focused on dramatic accounts of Trump reportedly describing Netanyahu as “crazy” and “ungrateful” while portraying Washington as a serious mediator seeking to restrain Israeli actions.
Yet the practical outcome was different. Israeli military operations against Lebanon continued with increased intensity, particularly across towns and villages in southern Lebanon. This appeared to reinforce statements made by Netanyahu and Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz, who insisted that discussions between Washington and Tel Aviv centred on postponing, rather than cancelling, a major strike against Beirut and its southern suburbs.
According to this view, the decision was not driven by humanitarian concerns but by explicit Iranian warnings that negotiations with Washington could be frozen and by preparations to resume ballistic missile attacks against Israeli settlements and cities in northern occupied Palestine.
The Pattern of Ceasefires Turning Into Escalation
Trump and Netanyahu appeared to recognise the seriousness of the Iranian threat. Efforts were subsequently made to present developments as a diplomatic initiative led by the strategically integrated US-Israeli alliance.
Trump even claimed, as he often has, that he had engaged with senior representatives of Hezbollah and reached an understanding with both Israel and Hezbollah to halt military exchanges. However, events on the ground quickly undermined such claims.
Israeli attacks continued, and Hezbollah operations also persisted. The Lebanese resistance, according to the article’s assessment, has little reason to trust either Trump or Netanyahu.
This pattern is not confined to Lebanon. Similar developments have unfolded in Gaza, where the implementation of what was labelled Trump’s peace plan was announced months earlier during a high-profile gathering in Sharm El Sheikh attended by dozens of regional leaders.
The plan was presented as a three-stage process. However, Israel reportedly failed to fulfil key obligations even during the first stage. Its withdrawal amounted only to a symbolic repositioning behind what became known as the “yellow line”, allowing it to retain control over 53 per cent of Gaza. That figure later rose to 60 per cent and eventually approached 70 per cent of the territory.
Meanwhile, agreed aid deliveries never reached expected levels, with humanitarian assistance reportedly remaining below 20 per cent of required volumes.
Gaza Agreements and Unfulfilled Commitments
Subsequently, announcements were made regarding the creation of a so-called Peace Council under Trump’s leadership, accompanied by reports of tens of billions of dollars in funding.
Attention then shifted suddenly to a second phase of the plan, despite the absence of any meaningful Israeli withdrawal from occupied areas. Instead, the primary focus became the disarmament of Hamas and other Palestinian resistance groups.
At the same time, the agreed Palestinian national committee intended to administer Gaza was never empowered to assume its role.
According to the article, Israel continued violating the original ceasefire agreement announced on 11 October 2025. More than 3,000 violations were reportedly recorded, resulting in the deaths of nearly 1,000 additional Palestinians and leaving thousands more wounded.
Israeli operations targeting Hamas leaders and members of the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades also continued, while the Trump administration remained publicly silent despite claims that Israel’s actions were undermining Washington’s own initiative.
The West Bank and Syria Follow a Similar Trajectory
The article argues that the same pattern has emerged in the West Bank.
Although Trump reportedly opposed Israel’s plans for formal annexation, settlement expansion, land seizures and broader annexation efforts continued uninterrupted. Israel’s attempts to weaken the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah and moves towards cancelling the Oslo Accords also progressed without meaningful criticism from Washington.
A comparable situation has unfolded in southern Syria. Despite the current Syrian leadership showing no interest in confrontation with Israel, Israeli forces expanded their control over territory in southern Syria amounting to roughly twice the size of Gaza, in addition to their long-standing occupation of the Syrian Golan Heights.
According to the article, the Trump administration remained silent even as these developments intensified.
Lebanon’s Front Remains Active
In Lebanon, the situation has followed a similar course.
Multiple ceasefire agreements have been announced since the cessation of hostilities agreement of 27 November 2024, brokered under US sponsorship. Despite Hezbollah maintaining the ceasefire for fifteen months, Israel allegedly carried out tens of thousands of attacks and targeted killings during that period.
Following Hezbollah’s decision to resume responses to Israeli attacks on 2 March 2026, Israel introduced new security zones and expanded operational boundaries deeper into southern Lebanon, eventually extending them north of the Litani River.
Israel also celebrated its renewed occupation of the historic Beaufort Castle, a site previously seized during the 1982 invasion of Lebanon.
Yet none of these developments succeeded in halting Hezbollah’s operations. Israel reportedly struggled to counter fibre-optic guided drones deployed by Hezbollah and failed to stop continued attacks targeting Israeli troops in southern Lebanon. Missile strikes against settlements and cities in northern occupied Palestine also resumed.
Why the War Remains Unfinished
The article argues that current realities expose the limitations of ceasefire arrangements that do not include a complete withdrawal of occupying forces.
Israel has expanded its territorial control across Gaza, southern Syria and southern Lebanon by more than 1,000 square kilometres. Nevertheless, despite overwhelming military superiority, advanced technology and extensive destructive capabilities, the Israeli military has not achieved its core objectives.
Resistance movements, although operating under immense pressure and amid widespread destruction, continue to function and adapt.
New tactics have emerged, including Hezbollah’s use of Ababil drones, anti-armour weapons, attacks against military vehicles and bulldozers, and a return to modernised guerrilla warfare strategies.
These developments lead the author to conclude that the conflict remains unresolved and highly likely to continue. Israel has not secured a decisive victory, while resistance movements in Palestine and Lebanon have neither been defeated nor surrendered their weapons.
Iran and the Prospect of a Wider Regional Conflict
US-Iran negotiations remain ongoing, but the prospects for a comprehensive agreement appear increasingly limited.
The article argues that the objectives of both sides remain fundamentally incompatible. Trump’s repeated statements about negotiations, including his expressed willingness to meet Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, are unlikely to gain significant traction with an Iranian leadership that appears increasingly confident following what it regards as a successful defence during the forty-day war.
Iran has also used subsequent ceasefire periods to strengthen its military preparedness. Sporadic confrontations around the Strait of Hormuz have continued, while American assessments have increasingly acknowledged the limitations of Washington’s campaign.
Following CNN’s widely circulated report detailing successful Iranian strikes against 16 US military bases across eight countries, the BBC published a separate investigation using satellite imagery that reportedly documented extensive damage at 20 American military sites throughout the region.
The article argues that these developments suggest a renewed conflict may impose significant costs not only on Iran but also on both the United States and Israel.
Additional reports from US intelligence assessments indicating that Iran retained much of its strategic missile infrastructure inside underground mountain facilities, coupled with reports that Tehran has acquired more advanced air defence systems from China and Russia, have reinforced expectations that the region may be moving towards a broader war.
Such a conflict, the article concludes, could extend across multiple fronts, including Lebanon, Yemen and Gaza.
