Did Trump Offer Taiwan to End the Iran and Russia Wars?

A report published by OilPrice.com examines the strategic equation shaping relations between the United States and China amid escalating global tensions, and the possibility of a geopolitical bargain in which Washington eases its position on Taiwan in exchange for stronger Chinese pressure on Iran and Russia to end the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Europe.

According to the report, translated by Arabi21, US President Donald Trump arrived in Beijing last Wednesday for a two day summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, while his advisers remained aware of the criticism he faced during his first term over his close engagement with Beijing.

The summit had originally been scheduled for late March, but was postponed following the outbreak of war against Iran. The delay placed two highly sensitive issues at the centre of discussions: China’s continued role as the main financial lifeline for Iran through oil and gas imports and other channels supporting Tehran’s military efforts against the United States, alongside the ongoing Russian war in Ukraine.

Both conflicts have contributed to sharp increases in global oil and gas prices, raising a key question: will Trump continue his flexible approach towards Xi Jinping, or will he apply direct pressure this time? And if pressure was applied, what concessions would Beijing demand in return?

China’s Economic Lifeline to Iran

The report states that Trump is currently focused on the continued closure crisis surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one third of the world’s oil and one fifth of global liquefied natural gas supplies normally pass.

Washington has recently shifted from what the report describes as “epic anger” to “economic anger”, escalating a financial war of attrition through sanctions and blockades.

However, the central obstacle remains China’s continued purchase of massive volumes of Iranian oil. Beijing has maintained these imports for years despite international sanctions, providing what the report describes as the final economic lifeline for the ruling establishment in Tehran.

Since the outbreak of the joint American and Israeli war against Iran, China has effectively become the last major buyer of Iranian oil. Beijing now purchases around 95 per cent of Iran’s oil exports, which account for nearly half of the Iranian state budget. Iran reportedly generated US$4.27 billion in oil revenues during February alone.

Most of these imports are handled by Chinese refineries described as “independent”, though the report notes that they remain directly or indirectly controlled by the Chinese state.

Under these circumstances, the report argues that a single statement from Xi Jinping threatening to halt Iranian oil imports unless the Strait of Hormuz is reopened immediately could potentially force an end to the blockade and rapidly bring the war to a close.

Russian Energy and China’s Strategic Role

The report applies the same logic to the war in Ukraine. Russia relies heavily on oil and gas revenues to finance roughly one third of its wartime budget, while China has become the principal source of this funding after Western sanctions cut off large portions of Russian energy exports.

China is currently the largest importer of Russian crude oil, purchasing more than 100 million tonnes annually, representing around 20 per cent of Beijing’s total energy imports.

At the same time, China imports more than 52 billion cubic metres of Russian natural gas each year, making Moscow the leading supplier of both liquefied natural gas and pipeline gas to China. Most of these supplies are transported overland through the Power of Siberia 1 pipeline.

Following recent meetings between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, plans were announced to increase annual gas transfers through the pipeline from 38 billion cubic metres to 44 billion cubic metres.

The report also notes that Western sanctions excluding Russia from the SWIFT global banking system accelerated the development of parallel financial infrastructure between Moscow and Beijing. Similar mechanisms have also been developed between China and Iran to bypass transactions conducted in US dollars.

The Principle of Strategic Bargaining

According to the report, Washington cannot simply force Beijing to use its extensive leverage over Iran and Russia to end the wars in the Middle East and Europe.

When the United States imposed higher tariffs on China last year, Beijing responded with sweeping retaliatory measures, including tariffs on American goods and restrictions on rare earth minerals, which are critical components in several major American manufacturing industries.

The report adds that the United States continues pursuing a gradual containment strategy against China, while Beijing presses ahead with economic expansion and efforts to weaken American global influence, particularly through challenging the dominance of the US dollar in the international financial system.

This has created what the report describes as a relatively balanced negotiating environment between the two powers, dominated by a transactional approach. Under such a framework, Beijing’s price for applying pressure on Iran and Russia could involve American concessions over Taiwan.

Taiwan and the “One China” Balance

The report argues that China’s discreet strategy for expanding global influence, rooted in the economic and political mechanisms of the Belt and Road Initiative, mirrors Xi Jinping’s preferred approach towards bringing Taiwan under Chinese control.

It further explains that the carefully drawn boundaries governing what both Washington and Beijing can do regarding Taiwan are based on highly sensitive interpretations of the “One China” principle.

Within this framework, the United States officially recognises the People’s Republic of China as the sole legitimate government of China, but does not formally recognise Beijing’s claim that Taiwan is part of China. Instead, Washington merely acknowledges the Chinese position without legally endorsing it.

In February, the United States removed the phrase “we do not support Taiwan independence” from an official document concerning US Taiwan relations.

Beijing responded sharply in an official statement, declaring that the move “sends a seriously wrong message to separatist forces advocating Taiwan independence and represents another example of the United States persisting in its mistaken policy of using Taiwan to contain China”. China also urged Washington to “immediately correct its mistakes and seriously adhere to the One China principle”.

Constructive Ambiguity Returns

The report notes that the White House avoided mentioning Taiwan in its official statement following the Trump Xi meeting, potentially signalling a return to the policy of “constructive ambiguity” originally shaped by Henry Kissinger in the 1970s, which still forms the foundation of US China relations.

After his latest meeting with Xi Jinping, Trump reportedly expressed his preference for maintaining the current status quo, suggesting that China would accept such an arrangement.

However, this position did not prevent Washington from approving a major US$11 billion arms deal with Taiwan in December last year.

The report concludes that China is attempting to solidify its position as a decisive global power capable of influencing both Iran and Russia, while seeking to secure conditions that would facilitate the eventual return of Taiwan to Chinese control, particularly if Trump ultimately decides that a rapid exit strategy from the war with Iran is necessary.