The future of the fragile ceasefire between Iran and the United States remains uncertain, according to a report published by The New York Times and written by Iran correspondent Farnaz Fassihi.
President Donald Trump issued fresh threats on Sunday warning of renewed military action against Iran, before announcing the following day that planned attacks had been suspended amid what he described as “serious negotiations”.
Despite the temporary pause, Iranian officials and analysts have continued preparing for the possibility of another wave of strikes. Iranian messaging has increasingly signalled that any future attack would come with heavy consequences for neighbouring states and the global economy.
What Is Iran Expecting?
During the first round of conflict earlier this year, Iranian officials reportedly prepared for a prolonged war that could last up to three months, according to Hamidreza Azizi, an Iranian security expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
As a result, Iran reduced its missile usage in order to preserve its strike capabilities for sustained attacks against Israel and regional targets over an extended period.
However, Iranian leaders now reportedly expect that any renewed confrontation would be “short but intense”, involving coordinated strikes targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure. Azizi said this assessment is based on statements from experts close to Iran’s military and security establishment.
How Could Iran Respond?
In a new round of fighting, Iran could launch dozens or even hundreds of missiles daily in an effort to “effectively confront the enemy and alter its calculations”, according to Azizi.
Such a strategy would likely place Gulf states under immediate pressure, particularly their energy infrastructure. Oil fields, refineries and export ports across the Gulf are considered among Iran’s most powerful pressure points against the global economy and the Trump administration.
Major attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure could draw countries such as United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia deeper into a regional conflict many Gulf leaders have sought to avoid.
Over recent weeks, Iranian officials and pro government analysts have escalated hostile rhetoric towards the UAE, accusing Abu Dhabi of facilitating attacks on Iran by hosting American military facilities.
Recent media reports also claimed that the UAE and Saudi Arabia carried out covert operations against Iran during the latest US Israeli assault.
Mahdi Kharatian, an analyst reportedly close to Iranian security forces, said during an audio interview last month: “We must absolutely return the UAE to the camel riding era, and we are capable of doing so. If necessary, we will occupy Abu Dhabi.”
Regardless of how exaggerated such statements may appear, Ali Alfoneh, a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute, said they reflect “important ideological currents” within the leadership of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Alfoneh also dismissed reports suggesting a potential non aggression agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, describing them as “completely unrealistic”.
“The threat of Iranian retaliation against major oil producers remains one of the very few factors restraining US behaviour towards Iran,” he said.
Iran’s Other Pressure Points
Iran could also attempt to expand its influence over the Bab el Mandeb, the narrow maritime corridor linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden through which roughly one tenth of global trade passes.
The waterway lies adjacent to territory controlled by the Iran aligned Ansar Allah movement in Yemen.
During the most recent conflict, Iran leveraged its strategic position near the Strait of Hormuz to exert significant pressure on the global economy.
Azizi said that if Tehran believes its influence over the Strait of Hormuz is under threat, it may seek to “force the United States to focus on two maritime fronts instead of one”.
Kharatian stated during a podcast interview last month that if the United States targeted Iran’s economic infrastructure, Tehran would respond by restricting maritime traffic through Bab el Mandeb.
Such a move could sustain pressure on the global economy, although analysts note that carrying out such a strategy would be highly complex.
The Houthis have pledged to defend Iran in the event of a wider regional war, but their response during the last round of fighting remained cautious. Analysts attributed that restraint to calculations surrounding the group’s diminishing military stockpile and the scale of force it can still deploy.
