Among the key points highlighted by China’s Foreign Ministry in its summary of President Donald Trump’s visit to China were three major issues:
- Building a new vision based on the principle of strategic stability.
- Avoiding the “Thucydides Trap” and creating a new model for relations between major powers.
- Treating Taiwan as the most important issue in China-US relations.
These three issues are closely interconnected. Taiwan is the issue most capable of pushing the United States into the so called Thucydides Trap. The likelihood of falling into that trap will ultimately determine whether a framework based on strategic stability can realistically be established between the two powers.
Why Is China Framing the Issue This Way?
China’s decision to invoke the concept of the Thucydides Trap, rather than relying on examples drawn from its own long civilisational history, carries a deliberate message aimed directly at the American political and strategic establishment.
Thucydides was the ancient Greek historian best known for documenting the Peloponnesian War between Sparta and Athens, a conflict that lasted 27 years from 431 BC to 404 BC. His analysis concluded that wars often erupt when a rising power begins threatening the dominance of an established ruling power.
The modern political theory known as the Thucydides Trap was later popularised by political scientist Graham Allison, who developed the concept based on historical patterns of conflict between rising and dominant states. Allison also served as an adviser to several US defence secretaries, particularly during the presidency of Bill Clinton.
By using this framework, Beijing was effectively sending a message to Washington from within America’s own intellectual and strategic tradition: if the United States is the established dominant power, then China sees itself as the rising force capable of challenging that dominance.
Taiwan Remains the Most Dangerous Flashpoint
Western media outlets largely understood the strategic signal behind China’s language, particularly when linked to the Taiwan issue.
According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry, if the Taiwan issue is handled properly, bilateral relations can maintain overall stability. However, if mishandled, both countries could slide into confrontation or even open conflict, placing the entire relationship at serious risk.
The message directed at Washington was clear: stop arming Taiwan, which Beijing considers part of mainland China, if the United States genuinely seeks strategic stability that serves both nations and contributes to global peace.
More specifically, China is effectively demanding that Washington freeze the estimated $30 billion arms package promised to Taiwan in the coming years.
This raises the central question: will President Trump comply with this demand and avoid falling into the Thucydides Trap, or will he move further toward confrontation and pay the strategic price?
Trade Relations Still Restrain Both Sides
The issue is not governed by military considerations alone. Other critical variables remain equally important, especially the economic and trade relationship between both countries.
China and the United States remain deeply dependent on one another and are effectively compelled to continue engaging economically regardless of political tensions.
The composition of the American delegation accompanying Trump reflected this reality, particularly the prominence given to major technology figures, including Elon Musk. At the same time, China signalled to the American delegation that it still views advanced US technology and access to American markets as essential.
This mutual dependence may explain why the visit concluded without sharp public confrontations or a formal joint statement outlining commitments and final outcomes.
Global Powers and the Marginalisation of Other Crises
The absence of dramatic positions during the visit also highlights a broader geopolitical reality: for global powers, Arab and African issues remain secondary concerns despite their importance to the peoples directly affected by them.
Whether the issue concerns the Strait of Hormuz, Palestine, Lebanon, or broader crises across the Global South, the strategic priorities of major powers continue to revolve primarily around competition among themselves.
This reality makes it necessary to assess Trump’s confrontation with China, or China’s confrontation with Trump, within its actual strategic context rather than through emotional or unrealistic assumptions.
What Happens If Trump Falls Into the Trap?
There is little doubt that a direct escalation between Washington and Beijing would have major consequences for the wider world, including the Arab and Muslim world.
However, avoiding the Thucydides Trap does not necessarily mean that the outcome would benefit weaker nations either.
The real question therefore must be asked twice:
What happens if President Trump falls into the Thucydides Trap?
And what happens if he successfully avoids it?
