A report published by the Russian newspaper Gazeta examined the contours of a potential conflict between China and the United States, the balance of power between both sides, and the factors that could push such a confrontation toward a dangerous escalation, including the possible use of nuclear weapons.
According to the report, Chinese President Xi Jinping warned during a meeting with Donald Trump that any mishandling of the Taiwan issue could ignite a direct confrontation between Beijing and Washington.
The newspaper noted that major questions continue to surround what a real war between the two powers would actually look like. While Xi did not outline specific scenarios or operational details regarding how such a conflict could erupt, research institutions both inside and outside China continue to produce extensive military assessments and strategic projections about the possibility of war between the two countries.
Taiwan at the Centre of the Conflict
One of the most frequently discussed scenarios in American media revolves around the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. The issue remains a major focus for Pentagon analysts and US media outlets, many of which believe Beijing has spent years preparing military plans to take control of the island, ranging from an air and naval blockade to a full scale military assault.
From a purely military perspective, the report explained that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army would need to launch a massive amphibious and airborne operation to achieve such an objective. This would involve transporting strategic and operational forces across sea and air routes into enemy territory and securing control over key areas.
The report added that such an operation is now widely considered within the capabilities of the Chinese armed forces. China currently possesses the world’s largest naval fleet, with more than 350 ships and submarines, including over 130 major surface combat vessels.
Military experts cited in the report stressed that China’s naval production pace has no equivalent in peacetime history. The scale and speed of expansion have become so extensive that even estimating the exact number of active vessels at any given moment has become increasingly difficult.
Pentagon analysts believe Beijing’s efforts to reunify Taiwan by force, alongside its broader ambition to reduce American influence across the western Pacific, have driven China to invest enormous financial and strategic resources into expanding and modernising its naval power.
Aircraft Carriers and Naval Supremacy
The report stated that China’s aircraft carrier fleet, equipped with advanced systems such as electromagnetic catapult launch technology, could potentially provide air cover for naval forces participating in a future Taiwan operation.
Such capabilities may also allow China to directly challenge the US Navy in a carrier versus carrier confrontation, a theoretical scenario that would represent the first conflict of its kind since the Second World War.
However, the report emphasised that the potential adversary is far from weak. In addition to the operational and combat capabilities of American forces stationed across the Indo-Pacific region, Taiwan itself possesses significant military strength.
Taiwan’s navy is considered comparable to the naval forces of countries such as Italy, India, and France. Its fleet includes 22 frigates, four destroyers, four submarines, 31 missile boats, and additional naval weapon systems.
Taiwan’s air force also fields more than 300 fighter aircraft, including 56 Mirage 2000 jets and 120 F-16 fighter jets. On 14 August 2020, Taiwan signed an official agreement with the United States to purchase 66 brand new General Dynamics F-16 Fighting Falcon aircraft.
The island also possesses cruise missiles capable of reaching major cities inside mainland China. The upgraded version of the Hsiung Feng missile reportedly has a range of around 1,200 kilometres, sufficient to strike Chinese coastal cities and potentially targets deeper inside Chinese territory in the event of war.
Strategic Balance Between Two Global Powers
Overall, the report argued that the military, technological, and economic capabilities of all parties involved are so vast that any confrontation would resemble a clash between powers of near equal strategic weight.
Even where one side enjoys superiority in a particular field, the opposing side continues to possess deterrence tools capable of restoring balance and complicating the battlefield equation.
For example, the United States maintains a clear advantage in aircraft carriers and large displacement warships. China, however, is moving rapidly to close this gap by increasing the number of large vessels in service while simultaneously developing advanced long range anti-ship missile systems with high precision targeting capabilities.
These systems could make it extremely dangerous for American carrier strike groups to operate within China’s engagement range.
China’s Expanding Hypersonic Missile Arsenal
During the 2025 military parade commemorating the 80th anniversary of China’s victory in the war against Japanese occupation and the Second World War, Beijing unveiled a new generation of anti-ship missile systems that recently entered service with the Chinese military.
Among the most notable systems were:
Ping Jie-15
A supersonic anti-ship missile powered by a scramjet engine, combining high speed with advanced manoeuvrability.
Ping Jie-17
An anti-ship ballistic missile equipped with a hypersonic glide vehicle designed to penetrate sophisticated defence systems.
Ping Jie-19
A hypersonic cruise missile powered by scramjet propulsion and developed for advanced anti-ship strike missions.
Ping Jie-20
An anti-ship ballistic missile fitted with a manoeuvrable hypersonic warhead capable of altering its trajectory during flight.
Ping Jie-21
A hypersonic anti-ship missile regarded as one of the most significant developments in modern naval warfare technology.
According to the report, any US naval formations approaching the Chinese coastline would likely face overwhelming missile barrages from these systems, potentially inflicting devastating losses on American forces in the Pacific theatre within a short period of time.
Could the Conflict Escalate Into Nuclear War?
The report warned that if a military conflict were to erupt between the United States and China, whether through recklessness or deliberate provocation from Washington, the scale of the confrontation would be difficult to comprehend.
Given the size of the forces involved and the destructive capabilities available to both sides, such a conflict could effectively amount to a global war in every sense of the term. The possibility of nuclear weapons being used could not be ruled out.
The report also noted that the combat reputation of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army has remained well known to the Pentagon since the Korean War between 1950 and 1953, and continues to factor into modern strategic calculations.
At the same time, Taiwan, currently viewed as a prosperous and highly developed region, could be transformed into a devastated battlefield in the event of a full scale war. This reality, according to the report, makes direct military resolution an undesirable option for Beijing.
Beijing’s Long Term Strategy
In its conclusion, the newspaper suggested that China’s political and military leadership may ultimately favour a strategy based on caution, restraint, and long term strategic patience.
Such an approach could eventually lead to Taiwan being reintegrated into mainland China through gradual political and economic processes, similar to what occurred in Hong Kong and Macau.
