US President Donald Trump has claimed that Iran is facing severe financial strain under the ongoing maritime blockade, stating that the country is losing up to $500 million per day due to restrictions on its ports. In a post on Truth Social, he described Iran as “financially collapsing” and under pressure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The US naval blockade began on 13 April. Since then, US forces have boarded three Iranian vessels and redirected at least 33 ships carrying cargo to or from Iran, according to the Pentagon.
In response, Iran has tightened control over the Strait of Hormuz and detained several foreign-flagged vessels, escalating tensions around one of the world’s most critical energy corridors.
How Is the Blockade Affecting Iran’s Economy?
Iran’s economy is heavily dependent on maritime exports, particularly oil, gas, petrochemicals, plastics, and agricultural goods. Any disruption to its ports directly impacts these sectors.
Despite this, Iran has continued exporting energy through the Strait. Approximately 80% of its oil exports pass through this route. According to Kpler, Iran exported 1.84 million barrels per day in March and around 1.71 million barrels per day so far in April, compared to an average of 1.68 million barrels per day in 2025.
Between 15 March and 14 April, Iran exported 55.22 million barrels of oil. Prices remained above $90 per barrel, often exceeding $100. Even at a conservative $90 per barrel, Iran generated at least $4.97 billion in revenue during the past month.
This represents a 40% increase compared to pre-war figures, when Iran earned around $115 million per day, or $3.45 billion monthly.
What Has Changed in Strait of Hormuz Traffic?
Shipping activity through the Strait has declined sharply. According to Kpler data, vessel transit dropped from a peak of 26 tankers on 18 April to just 18 vessels between 19 and 22 April, averaging 4.5 per day.
Previously, the daily average stood at nine vessels between early March and mid April. During peacetime, approximately 120 ships crossed the Strait daily, based on data from Lloyd’s List.
This indicates a decline of over 96% in maritime traffic.
Rising Security Incidents in the Region
Security risks have escalated significantly. Since the start of hostilities, 38 incidents have been recorded by the UK Maritime Trade Operations and maritime security firms, with seven attacks or incidents reported in just the past week.
Can the United States Sustain the Blockade?
Analysts suggest that Washington may face legal and political constraints. According to Frederick Schneider from the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, Trump could encounter legislative pressure once the 60-day window for military operations without congressional approval expires on 1 May.
There are also concerns about operational conditions for vessels enforcing the blockade, as well as potential reactions from China if its shipments continue to be disrupted. Beijing has already described the blockade as a “dangerous and irresponsible act”.
Former US ambassador Adam Ereli noted that while the blockade may appear strategically sound, it could face limitations due to domestic political factors within the United States.
Iran’s Ability to Adapt and Sustain
Experts indicate that Iran has prepared contingency strategies, including alternative methods for storing and selling oil. Even under strict sanctions, Iran is expected to endure longer than anticipated.
Analysts at The Soufan Centre believe Iran is leveraging rising global energy prices and supply shortages to increase pressure on Washington, aiming to force concessions and potentially a US withdrawal from the region.
Can Iran Store Its Oil?
Iran’s domestic refining capacity stands at approximately 2.6 million barrels per day, according to FGE Energy. Its oil and gas infrastructure is concentrated in the south west, particularly in Khuzestan and Bushehr.
As a leading OPEC producer, Iran exports around 90 percent of its crude via Kharg Island through the Strait of Hormuz.
While the blockade increases pressure on storage capacity, analysts expect production cuts to occur gradually, with a sharper decline potentially emerging in May.
Can Iran Maintain Oil Revenues?
Yes, in the short term. Iran currently holds between 160 and 170 million barrels of oil in transit aboard tankers worldwide. These shipments, which passed through the Strait before the blockade, continue generating revenue.
According to former congressional analyst Kenneth Katzman, these supplies could sustain income flows until August, despite restrictions on new exports.
However, Iranian tankers must avoid US naval interception, as recent incidents show increased enforcement activity.
Alternative Revenue Streams
Beyond oil exports, Iran has introduced transit fees on vessels passing through the Strait. Early indications suggest that payments are being made, including transactions reportedly settled in Chinese yuan.
This system provides an additional revenue channel, though its scale remains unclear.
Iran’s Maritime Tactics and Asymmetric Warfare
Iran has intensified its use of fast attack boats to seize vessels near the Strait. These tactics challenge claims that US forces have neutralised Iran’s naval threat.
Security firms describe this approach as part of a layered threat system, combining coastal missiles, drones, naval mines, and electronic warfare to create operational uncertainty.
These fast boats are now considered the backbone of Iran’s maritime strategy, enabling rapid, hard-to-detect strike and withdrawal operations.
How Long Would Mine Clearance Take?
According to The Washington Post, US defence estimates suggest that clearing mines from the Strait could take up to six months.
Officials have indicated that Iran may have deployed at least 20 mines, some using GPS-based placement, increasing detection difficulty.
Global Supply Disruption and Market Impact
The International Energy Agency estimates that supply disruptions have exceeded 12 million barrels per day, representing 11.5% of global demand.
This surpasses losses recorded during major historical crises, including the 1973 oil crisis, the Iranian revolution, and the 1991 Gulf War.
The disruption extends beyond crude oil to refined fuels, with shortages affecting aviation fuel and diesel supplies. Reuters estimates that the crisis has already removed approximately 624 million barrels from the market.
Even if a resolution is reached quickly, oil supply disruptions are expected to persist for months, while gas markets may take years to stabilise.
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