An Israeli analysis has raised concerns that a potential agreement between the United States and Iran could carry serious strategic consequences, including the possibility of leaving Israel to confront Iranian missile capabilities alone. The warning comes amid indications that the emerging deal may fall short of the declared objectives of the recent war.
Military analyst Alon Ben David, writing in Maariv, stated that the trajectory of negotiations reflects a clear willingness from both Washington and Tehran to reach an agreement. However, he noted that Iran is entering the process from a relatively strong position despite ongoing pressure, while the United States appears increasingly eager to bring the conflict to a close.
Declared War Objectives Quietly Abandoned
The analysis argues that the anticipated agreement will not achieve the objectives previously announced by Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, particularly the weakening of the Iranian regime or creating conditions for its collapse. According to the assessment, these goals have effectively been abandoned in practice.
It further highlights that the Iranian system, despite sustaining losses, has emerged from the conflict with increased internal cohesion. Its engagement in direct negotiations with US officials has also provided a degree of political legitimacy, strengthening its position both domestically and internationally.
Nuclear Programme Remains Intact at Core Level
On the nuclear front, the analysis indicates that the damage inflicted on Iran’s programme has not reached the level of full disruption. Iran continues to possess significant quantities of enriched uranium, maintaining its status as a “threshold nuclear state”.
The report warns that any agreement that does not mandate the removal of these materials would enable Tehran to rapidly resume its nuclear activities. Key points of contention in the negotiations include the duration of enrichment suspension, monitoring mechanisms, and the nature of nuclear facilities, whether underground or exposed. These factors are expected to determine the effectiveness of any final agreement.
Missile Capabilities Still Pose Direct Threat
From a military perspective, the analysis stresses that Iran’s missile programme retains substantial capabilities despite recent strikes. Ignoring this file within the negotiations, it argues, would leave the threat intact and could place Israel in a direct and isolated confrontation with Iran’s missile arsenal.
Regional Influence and Economic Leverage
The report also notes that Iran’s regional influence has not been fully dismantled. While some allied fronts have been affected, others remain operational and capable of exerting pressure across the region.
Economically, the analysis warns that lifting sanctions and allowing Iran to resume oil exports could generate hundreds of billions of dollars annually. Such revenue would enable Tehran to rapidly rebuild and expand its military capabilities.
Hormuz Control Could Reshape Regional Power Balance
Finally, the analysis highlights the potential implications of granting Iran a greater role in managing navigation through the Strait of Hormuz or allowing it to impose transit fees. Such developments could significantly expand Iran’s regional influence and impact Gulf economies that rely heavily on this vital maritime route.
