As the Israeli army expands its military operations in Lebanon, Hezbollah continues to demand that the government fulfil its duty and assume its responsibilities, while signalling responses that political analysts differ over in terms of the party’s ability to carry them out.
After the so-called ceasefire agreement between the two sides came into effect, Israel went back to threatening new incursions unless the Beirut government completed its task of disarming Hezbollah, a matter the party has repeatedly rejected. Its Secretary General, Naim Qassem, even affirmed that the party is working on rebuilding its capabilities in defence of Lebanon.
Despite this, the party has shown no response to the ongoing Israeli strikes since the agreement was signed, including the assassination of its Chief of Staff Haitham al-Tabtabai last week. Some, however, argue that Hezbollah is capable of and ready for any new Israeli war.
Yet this readiness, asserted by the party and by Lebanese political analysts, has not deterred Israel from openly declaring its intention to expand military operations in Lebanon if its government does not complete the disarmament task that was set for one year from the signing of the agreement.
Possible Expansion of Attacks
According to Israel’s Channel 13, the army has presented a plan to expand military operations against Hezbollah with the expiration of the deadline set by Washington for disarmament.
The Israeli Broadcasting Authority also stated that Israel informed the Lebanese government it would widen its attacks and reach areas it had not previously entered due to US pressure.
Hezbollah, however, is prepared to decisively repel these potential attacks without entering a full-scale war, in the view of political science and international law professor Ali Fadlallah.
According to Fadlallah, who spoke on the programme “Masar al-Ahdaath”, the removal of weapons and rocket launchers south of the Litani River by the Lebanese army “tempted Israel to advance into this area”.
Even so, Hezbollah’s weapons are still present and ready to defend Lebanon, Fadlallah says, adding that Israel’s threats of a new war indicate that its previous war failed to achieve its objectives.
In contrast, political writer Sateh Najm al-Din believes that what Israel is currently doing represents the first stage of a plan whose end is unknown, because it is operating in an open arena with unrestricted US backing.
Talk of Hezbollah having power or rebuilding its capabilities “is nothing but an illusion”, according to Najm al-Din, who argues that the party “signed a surrender” in the ceasefire agreement and that “had it possessed a response to Israel, it would not have remained silent until now, especially after the assassination of Tabtabai”.
In his view, the reality is that Hezbollah’s security and military structure has largely disintegrated, and what remains of it is no longer capable of responding, evidenced by the renewal of the agreement for weeks and then months despite Israel violating it from the very first moment.
Based on this, Najm al-Din believes what is required now is finding a new formula to halt Israel’s plans, which are centred on preventing the reconstruction of any damaged area in southern Lebanon, since the agreement in question “no longer exists”.
Israeli affairs expert Dr Muhannad Mustafa shares a similar view, saying that Israel considers what it is doing in Lebanon a legitimate right, acting with the mentality of a victor imposing its interpretation of the agreement.
The evidence for this, Mustafa argues, is that Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s call for an understanding on a mechanism to stabilise the agreement was not addressed even in the media, because the dominant perception in Israel is that Hezbollah was defeated in the last war.
Fabricating a Buffer Zone
From this standpoint, Israel is working to entrench a buffer zone in southern Lebanon similar to what it is trying to do in Syria and the Gaza Strip, after buffer zones became a core component of its security strategy following 7 October 2023, according to the Israeli affairs expert.
This situation, he adds, can only change under certain conditions: unlikely US pressure, the Lebanese army actually disarming Hezbollah, a comprehensive peace agreement with Beirut under Israel’s terms after dismantling the party, or a radical political shift inside Israel producing a different vision for Lebanon.
Accordingly, he believes Israel will continue its operations inside Lebanon to impose the buffer zone without entering a full-scale war.
This assessment is echoed by strategic and international security studies researcher Kenneth Katzman, who says that the United States and Israel are fully aligned on the necessity of disarming Hezbollah.
The current position of both parties, according to Katzman, is based on ending Hezbollah’s ability to wage a new war without the approval of the Lebanese state. Therefore, Israel will continue its military operations with US support to impose the buffer zone unless weapons are restricted to the hands of the Lebanese state.
