Military strategist Brigadier General Elias Hanna believes talk of an imminent war between the United States and Venezuela is exaggerated when measured against the current balance of power.
He notes that Washington’s military deployment in the Caribbean does not amount to preparations for a full-scale war, but rather fits within a long-standing U.S. strategy of regional dominance dating back to the Monroe Doctrine of 1823 — the same doctrine that enshrined America’s claim to hegemony over the Western Hemisphere.
Hanna explains that despite its scale, the current U.S. mobilisation represents no more than 10% of America’s naval power. Its primary purpose, he argues, is to pressure Caracas by maintaining a constant atmosphere of threat, in hopes of weakening the bond between the Venezuelan government and the army or forcing President Nicolás Maduro into negotiations with Washington.
According to the retired general, the U.S. seeks political and economic gains, foremost among them access to Venezuela’s vast oil reserves — the largest in the world — which have long been a target of Western corporate and strategic ambition.
Calculated Escalation
Hanna’s assessment coincides with statements by U.S. President Donald Trump, who claimed he was “not considering strikes inside Venezuela.”
Yet an American official told Al Jazeera that the Joint Chiefs of Staff had already presented the president with military options involving targets linked to drug trafficking inside Venezuelan territory.
According to the same source, the administration is studying the feasibility of limited strikes against these alleged smuggling sites, and the USS Ford aircraft carrier is expected to arrive in the Caribbean within days to reinforce the deployment.
Hanna points out that authorising the CIA to operate covertly inside Venezuela signals an advanced stage of preparation — a mix of external pressure and internal subversion that reflects a dual-track strategy aimed at exhausting the government from within.
He adds that Washington is employing its regional assets to create what he calls a “complete encirclement” of Venezuela — stretching from Cuba to Puerto Rico, via Trinidad and Panama — in an effort to isolate Caracas politically and economically.
Seeking Allies: Russia, China, and Iran
Amid these developments, The Washington Post cited U.S. documents revealing that President Maduro had asked Russian President Vladimir Putin for assistance in strengthening Venezuela’s air defences, including refurbishing its fleet of Russian-made Sukhoi jets.
The report also stated that Maduro reached out to China and Iran requesting military support and defensive equipment, as part of his effort to shield his country against any potential American attack or escalating pressure.
For Hanna, these moves are natural responses to Washington’s threats. Maduro, he explains, is working to build a network of alliances capable of deterring any U.S. military adventure in the region.
Psychological Warfare and Political Optics
On the U.S. side, Adam Smith, the senior Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, warned that Washington “could eventually conduct ground operations inside Venezuela following a series of airstrikes against drug gangs,” calling for greater transparency over the administration’s military objectives.
Hanna interprets such statements as part of psychological warfare, designed to keep Caracas under constant pressure.
Any direct American invasion, he argues, would be politically and militarily costly, reviving memories of Washington’s failed interventions across Latin America in previous decades.
In his view, what is unfolding in the Caribbean is merely another chapter of America’s “short-stick” policy — a strategy of combining military signalling with covert intelligence pressure to impose new political realities without plunging into full-scale war.
War, Hanna stresses, is not a realistic option at this stage.
He further notes that President Trump, eager to project toughness on foreign policy, is using the Venezuelan file to bolster his domestic image, relying on rhetoric of power without accepting the costs of direct confrontation.
A Modern Echo of the Cold War
According to Hanna, the current scene reflects a delicate balance of deterrence and showmanship.
Washington seeks to assert dominance through layered pressure, while Caracas resists through resilience and alliance-building with major powers like Russia and China — a dynamic that revives the atmosphere of the Cold War along the Caribbean shores.
Behind the headlines lies a familiar pattern:
another display of American militarism wrapped in the language of security, aimed not at peace or democracy, but at reasserting control over the hemisphere’s resources and politics.
And once again, Latin America finds itself at the crossroads of a struggle between imperial ambition and sovereign resistance.
