The Israeli newspaper Maariv has reported that the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the establishment of a new Sunni-led government under President Ahmad al-Shar’a have triggered a massive investment race to rebuild Syria — a development the paper described as “bad news for Israel,” according to a report by Yaakov Lappin of the Israeli Alma Research Center.
The report explained that the new struggle in Syria is no longer military but economic. Competing regional and international powers are vying for influence through multi-billion-dollar investments in infrastructure, energy, and finance — a dynamic Lappin described as a “new geopolitical melting pot” in the Middle East.
A New Order in Damascus
According to the report, the new government in Damascus — which has begun to take on authoritarian traits despite its “transitional” image — has launched an ambitious vision for what it calls a “New Syria.”
In his address to the United Nations General Assembly in September 2025, President Ahmad al-Shar’a declared his aim to “turn the page on a bleak past” and reintegrate the country into the international community.
Yet Lappin argues that this vision contradicts reality on the ground. Despite his moderate tone directed at the West, al-Shar’a relies heavily on Sunni forces supported by Turkey. The report also claimed that signs of religious revival are visible in the educational system, pointing to videos of teachers in Damascus schools telling children that “the Qur’an is the constitution of the state” and that their mission is “to liberate al-Aqsa Mosque.”
The Billion-Dollar Reconstruction Battle
According to the Alma report, the estimated cost of rebuilding Syria ranges between $250 billion and $400 billion, possibly reaching $900 billion. With the country now heavily dependent on foreign capital, Syria has become an open arena for competing investment blocs seeking political and economic leverage.
The report noted that the Trump administration responded to Damascus’s appeals by announcing a partial lifting of economic sanctions on 30 June 2025, following an intense diplomatic campaign led by al-Shar’a and his foreign minister, As’ad al-Shaybani, who made a historic visit to Washington.
Lappin described the establishment of new “transitional justice” and “missing persons” committees by the Syrian government as largely symbolic gestures aimed at gaining international legitimacy.
The new transitional constitution, signed in March 2025, concentrated power in the hands of the president, allowing him to appoint one-third of the parliament directly, while the remaining two-thirds are elected through pre-approved committees.
Elections in the Druze and Kurdish regions were postponed for “security reasons,” fueling concerns of continued political repression. Lappin suggested that the exclusion and marginalisation of minorities — particularly Kurds and Druze — expose the gap between al-Shar’a’s moderate image and the authoritarian practices of his government.
Economic Stability Over Political Reform
The report stated that the Syrian leadership appears more focused on economic stability than political reform. On 4 September 2025, the government launched the Syrian Development Fund, a presidential institution to coordinate donations and grants. Contributions reportedly surpassed $80 million within weeks, though analysts warned of corruption risks and the absence of independent oversight.
Lappin observed that the main economic rivalry is now between Gulf states and Turkey.
- Qatar has pledged more than $7 billion in energy and natural-gas infrastructure.
- Saudi Arabia allocated $6.4 billion, aiming to curb both Qatari and Iranian influence.
Meanwhile, Turkey is leveraging its industrial power and geographic proximity to dominate reconstruction projects, particularly in airports and energy facilities.
He added that Turkey’s expanding economic influence has become a strategic instrument, granting Ankara direct leverage over Damascus in matters of security — especially regarding the future of Kurdish forces in northern Syria.
Iran’s Axis in Retreat
The fall of Assad’s regime dealt a severe blow to the Iranian axis, stripping Tehran of its major investments and its land corridor to Hizbullah.
Russia, meanwhile, is struggling to maintain its foothold at its Tartus and Hmeimim bases after losing a major port contract to the UAE’s DP World.
President al-Shar’a visited Moscow in October 2025 to reset relations, discuss reconstruction and security, and formally requested the extradition of former president Bashar al-Assad. He simultaneously affirmed his desire to maintain the Russian military presence as a deterrent against Israeli aggression in southern Syria.
The Rise of the Sunni Crescent
Lappin concluded that while the new Syrian government seeks to attract Gulf and Western capital, it remains rooted in what he termed a “jihadi-inspired ideology.” He asserted that the Shi‘a Iranian axis has given way to a rising Sunni crescent led by Turkey and Qatar — one that is neither loyal to Israel nor aligned with Western interests.
Despite the economic optimism and influx of investment, Maariv’s analysis ends on a cautious note: the future of Syria remains uncertain, as regional competition intensifies between the emerging Sunni bloc and the waning Iranian influence.
