Israel’s airstrikes on Lebanon have intensified in scale and reach over recent days, raising fears of a renewed war and its grave consequences for regional stability. The escalation comes as Western powers increase pressure on the Lebanese government to enforce the disarmament of Hezbollah — a demand widely viewed in Lebanon as an infringement on its sovereignty and resistance identity.
Dual Messages: Lebanon and Gaza
According to Israeli affairs expert Mahmoud Yazbek, Israel’s escalation carries dual messages aimed at both Lebanon and Gaza. He argues that Tel Aviv is exploiting Lebanon’s fragile political divisions to ignite internal discord, even if it risks plunging the country into civil conflict.
Speaking to Ma Wara’ al-Khabar (“Behind the News”), Yazbek stated that “the complete violation of southern and eastern Lebanon will soon be mirrored in Gaza, with direct American support.”
He believes that “whenever tensions in Gaza subside, they rise in Lebanon” — highlighting what he described as a coordinated Israeli-American pattern of alternating pressure zones across the region.
Yazbek added that Israel’s right-wing plans to reoccupy southern Lebanon and establish settlements remain alive, emphasising that Israel’s long-standing strategy is to wage wars to achieve geopolitical and ideological objectives.
Earlier today, an Israeli military spokesperson claimed that fighter jets struck a camp and a precision missile manufacturing site allegedly linked to Hezbollah in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley and northern regions.
U.S. Endorsement of Israeli Escalation
Strategic and international security analyst Kenneth Katzman affirmed that the United States fully aligns with Israel’s interpretation of the ceasefire agreement, arguing that any armed activity within Lebanon must operate solely under the authority of the Lebanese state.
Accordingly, Katzman said, Washington will continue to back Israeli strikes so long as Hezbollah is believed to be transferring or upgrading its weapons — a stance identical to America’s approach toward Hamas in Gaza.
He noted that Israel’s goal is to keep Hezbollah’s military capacity constrained, preventing it from regaining its pre–7 October 2023 strength. Katzman further argued that the disarmament demand applies to all Lebanese territory, not just south of the Litani River, declaring that “the era in which Hezbollah alone decided when to go to war with Israel has ended.”
A New Phase of the Israeli War
Lebanese journalist Nicolas Nassif stressed that Israel has never ceased its aggression since the ceasefire announcement on 27 November 2024, linking recent attacks to comments by U.S. envoy Tom Barrack, who hinted at a potential Israeli move.
“These operations,” Nassif said, “send implicit messages to Lebanon, pushing it to comply with disarmament conditions across the entire country — not only the south.”
He warned that the current escalation marks a new stage in Israel’s warfare, one that extends beyond the Litani River into Lebanon’s northern Bekaa and Hermel regions.
Lebanon Appeals to International Guarantors
Regarding the Lebanese government’s position, Nassif noted that the Lebanese Army has fulfilled its obligations under the ceasefire agreement in the south. However, Israel’s continued occupation of Lebanese territory restricts Beirut’s ability to de-escalate, leaving it dependent on appeals to international guarantors.
The Lebanese Presidency confirmed this stance in an official statement:
President Joseph Aoun reiterated Lebanon’s commitment to the ceasefire during a meeting with the head of the international monitoring committee in southern Lebanon. He stressed that the Lebanese Army continues its duties south of the Litani River.
President Aoun called for international pressure on Israel to withdraw from occupied Lebanese lands, enabling the army to extend its deployment, dismantle remaining armed presences, uncover tunnels, and seize hidden weapons.
In a related move, the Lebanese Cabinet also urged the United States and France to intervene to halt Israeli attacks and ensure full implementation of the agreement to end hostilities.
Analysis: A Strategic Shift, Not Just an Escalation
The current Israeli campaign reflects more than tactical aggression; it signals a strategic recalibration aimed at reshaping Lebanon’s internal balance and neutralising the resistance axis that has long challenged Israel’s expansionist ambitions.
Yet, despite Western endorsement and Israeli escalation, Lebanon’s resilience — embodied in its army, people, and resistance — remains the core barrier against renewed occupation and regional destabilisation.
