Following the ceasefire agreement in Gaza, American officials have intensified their talk about an imminent normalisation between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Although Riyadh has remained completely silent, Saudi media behaviour suggests that the path toward normalisation is well underway — and that it is merely a matter of timing and optics before the announcement.
Washington and Tel Aviv hope such a move will serve as a catalyst for a new wave of Arab and Muslim normalisation, cementing U.S.–Israeli dominance over the Middle East under the guise of official Arab recognition, following the military and political gains both have achieved over the past two years.
Trump’s Statements and Renewed Diplomatic Pressure
Several signals point to this accelerated agenda.
In a recent Fox News interview, President Donald Trump stated that Saudi Arabia informed him of its readiness to join the “Abraham Accords,” just one day prior to the interview.
Similarly, Tom Barrack, the U.S. envoy to Syria, confirmed that the Kingdom is nearing full normalisation, which he said would prompt other Levantine countries — including Lebanon, Syria, and possibly Iraq — to follow suit.
Another notable indicator was the return of Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and architect of the Abraham Accords, to the diplomatic stage through his involvement in the Gaza ceasefire negotiations.
His reappearance underscores Washington’s intent to reactivate the normalisation track via Riyadh, particularly after the ceasefire became a precondition for Saudi entry into the process — with a vague reference to a “Palestinian state” inserted ambiguously into one of the agreement’s clauses.
The Saudi Conditions and Regional Calculations
Among the key conditions for Saudi normalisation, Washington promises Riyadh a reduced Iranian threat — portraying Tehran and its allies as significantly weakened.
However, the Saudis remain cautious. The blows dealt to Iran’s regional partners have not been decisive, and in places like Yemen, Iran-aligned forces appear stronger than before October 7.
The situation places Riyadh in a delicate balancing act — between the conditions the U.S. wants to secure and the rapidly shifting regional landscape that compels the Kingdom to redefine its security posture.
A Security Guarantee in Exchange for Recognition
According to a report in the Financial Times, Saudi Arabia and the U.S. are negotiating a bilateral defence pact that Riyadh views as an insurance policy for the regime’s stability.
The Kingdom hopes the deal will be finalised during Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s upcoming visit to Washington.
Though American officials have said that details are still under discussion, the agreement — if signed — is expected to include explicit U.S. defence guarantees, similar to those extended to Qatar following Israel’s military escalation against Doha.
The U.S. justified such guarantees as protection for Qatar’s diplomatic engagement in sensitive regional issues. Similarly, Saudi Arabia argues that normalisation with Israel carries significant risks, necessitating equivalent security assurances.
Normalisation as a Precondition for Protection
The timing of American leaks and statements about both the defence pact and the normalisation process suggests a clear linkage:
Washington has long made Saudi recognition of Israel a prerequisite for such an agreement.
This connection gives the current talks greater credibility and urgency.
The strongest indicator, however, comes from Gaza itself.
U.S. protection of the ceasefire — evident after Israel’s most recent airstrikes — showed how Washington pressured Tel Aviv to restore calm quickly, reopen crossings, and allow humanitarian aid back into the Strip.
This reflects Trump’s broader framework: Gaza’s war had previously suspended a near-complete Saudi–Israeli normalisation deal just before the October operation.
Now, stabilising the truce serves as a gateway to resume the process.
Beyond Saudi Arabia: A Regional Domino Effect
For the United States, the goal is not limited to Saudi Arabia.
Washington envisions a chain reaction that draws in other Arab states, particularly those that fought or still contest Israel militarily and possess occupied territories.
If realised, such a scenario would secure Israel’s strategic depth, creating demilitarised and depopulated zones under indirect Israeli security control — effectively turning the surrounding Arab lands into extensions of Israel’s security perimeter.
The report adds that Saudi backing for post-war arrangements in Syria and Lebanon is seen as part of this project — one intended to permanently eliminate armed resistance as a legitimate means of liberation.
The Paradox: Israel Is in No Hurry
Ironically, while Washington is pushing for quick results, Israel is in no rush.
Tel Aviv believes that the past two years have expanded its options:
fragmenting neighbouring states, deepening sectarian and tribal divisions, and emptying targeted areas of their native populations — all of which advance Israeli interests without the need for immediate formal agreements.
For Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, however, the sense of rising internal and external threats drives an urgent search for stronger U.S. guarantees.
But for Israel, the slow erosion of regional resistance — not a rapid deal — remains the more valuable victory.
