Who controls the Strait of Hormuz?
A battle of competing narratives is intensifying between the United States and Iran over control of navigation through the strategic waterway. Washington says effective control has shifted in its favour, pointing to the recovery in oil flows and what it describes as the effectiveness of its blockade. Tehran, meanwhile, insists that it remains the party capable of determining what happens in the strait and has threatened to shut down shipping routes it describes as “illegal”.
The dispute comes as preliminary data from Kpler showed that crude oil exports from the region recovered during September, reaching a daily average of 18.3 million barrels in the final week of the month. Export volumes exceeded pre-war levels on 14 days during September.
A Battle Over the Meaning of Control
Washington and Tehran are advancing sharply conflicting accounts over which side holds effective control of the strait.
The United States argues that its ability to secure shipping movements, combined with the recovery in oil flows, demonstrates that control over navigation has shifted in its favour.
Iran, however, maintains that it remains in control and retains the ability to determine which maritime routes are available to vessels.
Tehran: Hormuz Is Ours
In the latest Iranian statement, the semi-official Fars News Agency quoted Mohammad Reza Naqdi, an adviser to the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as saying that transit routes through Hormuz found to be “illegal” would soon be closed.
Naqdi said the limited number of such routes had been created by blasting and destroying rocky passages in the strategic strait and were being used by small vessels to smuggle oil.
His remarks contradicted the American narrative that Gulf oil shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz had returned to pre-war levels.
The Iranian official stressed that the strait remained “closed” and that Iran’s armed forces exercised “complete control” over it.
He said that situation would continue “until Iran’s legitimate demands are met”.
Later in the evening, Hossein Taleb, head of Iran’s Basij organisation, said the United States would be unable to impose its will on the strait, insisting that Hormuz was “practically under our control”.
Washington, by contrast, argues that developments on the ground demonstrate that Tehran has lost control of the waterway.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran had “completely lost control” of Hormuz.
Speaking during a visit to Athens, Rubio said: “The amount of oil currently flowing is almost equal to what was being transported before this conflict began, and therefore they have completely lost control” of the vital route for Gulf energy exports.
The Wall Street Journal, citing vessel-tracking data, reported that no tanker carrying Iranian crude oil had successfully crossed the US blockade line since July.
A day earlier, US President Donald Trump repeated his claim that Washington controls the strait.
“Hormuz is now under our control,” Trump said, adding that oil shipments originating outside Iran had returned to levels approaching their highest rates “ever”.
Israel: Washington Has Far Greater Control
The Israeli assessment closely aligns with the American narrative over both control of the strait and the effectiveness of the blockade.
The Jerusalem Post quoted the head of Israeli Military Intelligence as telling the security cabinet that the US naval and air blockade against Iran was highly effective.
He reportedly argued that the United States now exercises substantially greater control over the Strait of Hormuz than Iran does.
What Does Shipping Traffic Show?
Monitoring conducted by Al Jazeera’s Open Source Intelligence Unit found that crude oil exports from Gulf states, excluding Iran, returned last month to levels close to those recorded before the war.
However, the recovery in oil exports does not mean that maritime traffic through the strait has returned to its previous state.
The unit monitored 34 commercial vessels that crossed Hormuz over a period of approximately 62 hours.
It found a substantial presence of cargo ships and tankers carrying crude oil, petroleum products and chemicals, while traffic involving Iran-linked vessels and liquefied natural gas tankers remained limited.
The monitoring covered vessels passing through the strait from midnight on Monday, 5 October, until approximately 2pm on Wednesday, 7 October, Doha time.
Among the vessels recorded, only one tanker was flying the Iranian flag, while only one liquefied natural gas tanker was identified.
That, however, does not tell the whole story.
Reuters, citing maritime security sources, reported that attacks against oil tankers sailing through the strait reached their highest weekly level since the war began.
According to Reuters, at least 12 attacks were recorded between 28 September and 5 October against oil tankers, liquefied natural gas carriers and liquefied petroleum gas tankers travelling through Hormuz.
The agency also reported that attacks and harassment activities continued in the strait, including drone flights, surveillance and radio communications attributed to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Ultimately, the US-Iranian dispute over Hormuz reflects two competing definitions of “control”.
Washington measures control through the continued movement of vessels and the recovery of oil flows.
Tehran’s position rests on a different measure: whether it retains the ability to disrupt, restrict or threaten maritime traffic through one of the world’s most strategically important waterways.
