Is Hezbollah Preparing to Resume Military Confrontation with Israel?

A new report from the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security warns that a new war between Israel and Hezbollah could erupt at any moment. The institute emphasises that Hezbollah is already taking proactive steps, laying the groundwork for a potential large-scale military confrontation

Strategic Preparations by Hezbollah

Lebanese analysis suggests Hezbollah is quietly preparing logistics and civilian support networks to sustain a future conflict. The group has set up four logistical depots in northern Lebanon—in areas including Minyeh, Batroun, Akkar, and Jbeil—two of which are located in Christian-majority regions (Batroun and Jbeil).

Small convoys carrying medical supplies, blankets, and mattresses are being regularly observed moving into these depots, particularly serving Shi‘ite communities in northeastern Lebanon, such as Habshit and Qarha in Akkar, and Bahboush, Bnahran, and Zgharta el-Matoula in the Koura district. The mobilisation appears to be part of broader war readiness efforts.

Regional Tensions and Political Strain

This escalation unfolds amid growing frustration in both the U.S. and Israel with Lebanon’s weak response to envoy Thomas Barrack’s disarmament initiative. At the same time, there is uncertainty over the renewal of the UNIFIL mandate, set to expire in August. Both Washington and Jerusalem oppose a straightforward renewal unless UNIFIL is empowered to enforce UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which calls for the disarmament of Hezbollah and full Lebanese state sovereignty in the south.

Escalation of Hostile Rhetoric

Hezbollah’s deputy leader, Naim Qassem, issued a stark warning that “missiles will fall on Israel if it resumes war on Lebanon,” signalling a readiness to respond militarily.

Potential Humanitarian Fallout

The risk of a new conflict brings grave humanitarian concerns. The institute notes the possibility of mass civilian displacement, particularly in southern Lebanon, likely to become the primary battleground once again.

Implications for Lebanese Sovereignty

Crucially, Hezbollah appears to be acting independently of Lebanon’s official institutions, underscoring the weakening influence of the central government. The group’s growing autonomy highlights its role as a paramount—and destabilising—force within Lebanon.

In Summary

• Hezbollah is taking proactive war preparations, including logistics and civilian support in Shi‘ite regions.
• UNIFIL’s renewal is uncertain amid calls to enforce Resolution 1701.
• Public threats by Hezbollah signal high readiness for conflict escalation.
• Lebanese sovereignty is undermined as Hezbollah operates beyond state control.
• Rising threats raise alarm for civilian safety and regional stability.