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Will Hamas Collapse After the Assassination of Its Leaders?

June 2, 2025
in Sunna Files Observatory
Reading Time: 10 mins read
0

In a recent analysis, the Hebrew-language Jerusalem Post admitted a truth the Israeli establishment is reluctant to face: Hamas is unlikely to collapse—even after the deaths of its top leaders, including Yahya and Mohammed Sinwar.

The article, published Saturday evening, confirmed the assassination of Mohammed Sinwar, senior Hamas commander in Gaza, who was reportedly killed on 13 May 2025. Despite widespread speculation over the past ten days, Hamas has shown no signs of weakening or changing its operational behavior.

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In fact, the movement still maintains control over central refugee camp zones—including Nuseirat, Maghazi, Bureij, and Deir al-Balah—with active fighters in Gaza City and a limited yet persistent hold on other areas across the Strip.


“Kill One Leader, Another Rises”

The article admits that Israel has repeatedly eliminated Hamas’s brigade and battalion commanders, often killing their successors as well.
Yet Hamas continues to function.

“A significant number of field commanders have been eliminated,” the article states, “but Hamas is likely in better condition than Israeli intelligence suggests.”

This echoes past Israeli miscalculations. In May 2021, Tel Aviv celebrated what it called the decimation of Hamas’s tunnel network—a claim that proved false.
By October 2023, those very tunnels had been repaired and used in the daring Operation Al-Aqsa Flood.


Historical Precedent: Hamas Only Grows Stronger

The piece acknowledges a historic truth:
Hamas has historically emerged stronger after each Israeli war.
Even after devastating losses—such as the assassinations of Sheikh Ahmad Yassin, Abdel Aziz Al-Rantisi, and Mahmoud Al-Mabhouh (a key weapons logistics commander assassinated in 2010)—Hamas rebuilt, reorganised, and advanced.

“Yahya Sinwar,” the paper writes, “helped build Hamas into the collective force that shook Israel on 7 October 2023. Yet his presumed death has not shaken the movement’s resolve.”


Tactical “Wins”, Strategic Confusion

According to Jerusalem Post, Yahya Sinwar was killed alone in Tel Al-Sultan, near Rafah, in October 2024, and several of his close aides have since scattered.

Despite these so-called tactical victories, Hamas refuses to surrender—a fact that puzzles Israeli analysts.

“Israel excels at assassinations,” the article says, “but its broader strategy has not produced any meaningful tactical success.”

Worse, the Zionist regime lacks a coherent post-war strategy:

     

      • No clear exit plan from Gaza

      • No viable replacement for Hamas

      • No civilian governance alternative on the ground


    Hamas Still Holding Ground—and Hostages

    Even amid supply shortages, a fatigued arsenal, and battlefield exhaustion, Hamas maintains an active base in the central refugee camps, recruiting youth and operating under siege.

    The article notes that Hamas still holds 58 hostages, and maintains contact with leadership abroad, including those in Doha, during ongoing negotiations.

    Surprisingly, Jerusalem Post admits that Hamas’s demands have remained consistent—unchanged by the loss of high-ranking figures.
    The January 2025 deal, the March proposals, and the current negotiations all revolve around the same core conditions Hamas has insisted on since 2024.


    Final Words: Israel Has No Vision Beyond Assassination

    In a striking conclusion, the analysis states:

    “Hamas has what it wants—an end to the war. Yet it shows no signs of collapse. Even if it did, Israel is failing to capitalise on its leadership kills in any meaningful way.”

    Referencing the military theories of Clausewitz, the paper suggests Israel has resorted to blind tactical violence, without vision, strategy, or long-term planning.

    “Israel moves forward with tactical wins—but no post-war roadmap, no strategy to replace Hamas, and no way to control Gaza. Hamas, on the other hand, just has to wait. When the dust settles, a new Sinwar will rise.”

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