Israeli lawyer and military expert Rami Simni has proposed that dividing Syria into “cantons” could serve as a means to counter Turkish expansion under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and bolster Israeli interests.
In his article published in Yedioth Ahronoth, Simni argued that Syria has been a “fabricated” state since its establishment after the San Remo Agreement of 1920. He noted that Syria was initially intended to be divided into five autonomous regions based on ethnic and sectarian composition.
He emphasized that Syria has never been a unified or nationalistic state, claiming that its division would be the most logical solution aligned with its demographic reality.
Israeli Interests in Syria’s Division
The writer believes that breaking Syria apart would serve Israel’s strategic goals, particularly by supporting minority groups such as the Druze and Kurds. The Kurds, in particular, are regarded as historical allies of Israel, and supporting their independence would increase pressure on Turkey.
Simni identified Erdogan as the greatest regional threat after Iran, suggesting that dividing Syria and establishing an independent Kurdish state would significantly weaken Erdogan’s influence.
He wrote: “The false calm in Syria after Assad’s fall excites our analysts, who dream that, for once, the Middle East might see terrorists who thrive on killing and destruction transform into Snow White-like figures. But this will not happen. Analysts dreamed the same about Arafat, the Palestinian Authority, and Hamas—but it never materialized.”
Simni likened rebel leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani to figures like Yahya Sinwar. “He constantly changes his appearance—from jihadist robes to tactical combat uniforms, and finally to a tailored business suit. These superficial attempts aim to mislead Israeli intelligence but are not fooling anyone.”
An Opportunity for Israel
Simni argued that the post-Assad era presents an opportunity for Israel to shape the region’s future. He claimed that after the fall of Assad, each rebel group is driven by its own interests, attempting to steer the future of Syria in its favor.
He wrote: “This is Israel’s chance to reshape the surrounding region for generations to come.”
Simni also reiterated his earlier call to target Iran, saying: “In various lectures and in this article, I was among the first to highlight the strategic necessity of toppling the Ayatollah regime. Destroying Iran’s nuclear capabilities will be pointless as long as its regime continues to aim for our destruction. Yet, the greatest threat after the fall of Iran’s regime is Sultan Erdogan, who seeks to recreate the Ottoman Empire and speaks openly of conquering Israel.”
He claimed Erdogan supports a unified Syria to maintain stability on his borders, which he needs to expand his influence across the Middle East. “Israel’s interests are the exact opposite. Israel can and must ensure that Syria ceases to exist as a unified state.”
A Vision for Divided Cantons
Simni proposed dividing Syria into five cantons, some of which already exist in practice. He suggested deepening Israel’s involvement in areas such as the Druze canton, advocating for autonomy under Israeli protection rather than outright annexation.
He wrote: “Imagine an independent Kurdish state with tens of millions of people pressing on Erdogan along Turkey’s eastern border. Israel must abandon its policy of concealing ties with the Kurds. The Kurds are long-standing friends of Israel with deep historical connections. Concealing this relationship and failing to support their legitimate independence is unethical.”
Weakening Erdogan’s Grip
Encouraging the establishment of a Kurdish canton, autonomous region, or state along Turkey’s border, Simni argued, would create significant challenges for Erdogan. He claimed it would force Erdogan to justify his opposition on the international stage, destabilize support for him within Turkey, weaken Turkey’s fragile economy, and potentially lead to the end of Erdogan’s authoritarian rule.
Simni concluded: “This development would not only ease pressure on Erdogan’s domestic opponents but also bring relief to all NATO member states.”
