The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas’ political bureau, in Tehran on the early morning of Wednesday, July 31, 2024, has sparked widespread reactions in Israeli and Hebrew newspapers. There are predictions that the assassination will lead to increased tensions in the Middle East and complicate the negotiations for a prisoner exchange between Tel Aviv and Hamas.
Israeli commentator Amos Harel, a military analyst for Haaretz, published an article titled: “Assassinations in Iran and Lebanon Bring the Middle East Closer to Regional Fire,” referring to Haniyeh’s assassination as well as the killing of Fouad Shukr, a Hezbollah leader, on Tuesday evening due to an Israeli airstrike targeting the southern suburbs of Beirut.
Harel said: “We may be facing an additional escalation in the conflict, to the point of a broader regional conflict. Iran will find it difficult not to respond to an act that occurred on its own soil.”
He added: “On the other hand, both Iran and Hezbollah are still seen as trying to keep the war with Israel below the threshold of full-scale war.”
The Israeli analyst predicted that Haniyeh’s assassination would negatively impact negotiations for a prisoner exchange deal, which have largely stalled in recent weeks due to the hardening of positions presented by Israel.
Regarding the ongoing tension on the northern border between Hezbollah and Israel since the Israeli army launched a war on Gaza on October 7, Harel noted that even if Shukr’s assassination in Beirut does not lead to a full-scale war, the only way to restore stability on the Lebanese border is to reach a prisoner exchange deal with Hamas and a ceasefire in Gaza, followed by rapid American efforts to de-escalate the northern tensions.
Meanwhile, a former Israeli security official believed that Haniyeh’s assassination does not alter the military capabilities of his movement, according to Anadolu Agency.
Former National Security Council head Giora Eiland told Israeli Broadcasting Authority: “From a military perspective, the elimination (of Haniyeh) does not change the organization’s capabilities.”
Regarding the impact of the assassination on the prisoner exchange agreement and ceasefire in Gaza, Eiland said: “The main reason that will make Hamas leader Yehya Sinwar halt the negotiations is seeing what happens in Lebanon.”
Earlier on Wednesday, Hamas announced Haniyeh’s assassination following a “treacherous Zionist raid on his residence in Tehran, after he participated in the inauguration ceremony of the new Iranian President Masoud Bezhkishan.”
Iranian state television also reported Haniyeh’s death in Tehran, stating that “investigations into the assassination are ongoing, and the results will be announced soon.”
