In a move with alarming military and political implications, Israel’s security cabinet (the “kabinett”) unanimously approved plans to expand the ground invasion of Gaza in preparation for full-scale occupation.
This escalation coincides with the Israeli military’s announcement that tens of thousands of reserve troops have been called up, signaling the largest mobilization since the war began in October 2023.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated the next phase will be “different from the previous ones,” outlining a strategy to transition from raids to permanent military presence in Gaza—a shift in Israel’s military doctrine.
The Occupation Plan
According to leaks from Netanyahu’s office, Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi presented a plan with official goals: defeat Hamas, recover Israeli captives, and assert full control over Gaza.
But as Yedioth Ahronoth noted, the plan essentially recycles previously declared objectives that Israel has failed to achieve despite extreme force and a relentless siege.
The new danger lies in the plan’s intent to physically occupy the entire Gaza Strip, push residents southward, and dismantle Hamas’ administrative infrastructure—a step that military correspondent Yoav Zitun interpreted as a move toward mass internal displacement or even forced expulsion amid an unprecedented humanitarian crisis.
Strategic and Logistical Questions
The Israeli outlet Walla raised serious doubts about Israel’s capacity to implement such a massive ground campaign. Military analyst Amir Bohbot questioned:
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- Does the IDF have sufficient manpower for such an operation?
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- Can the reserve forces, fatigued and stretched thin, endure a protracted urban warfare campaign?
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- What happens to Israeli captives if Hamas reacts with maximalist tactics in response to an all-out occupation?
Financially, the war’s expansion is expected to cost Israel billions more. Domestically, public confidence is waning and protests are growing.
Human Cost and Urban Warfare
More than 600 Israeli soldiers have died in previous ground operations in 2023–2024. Any push into densely populated areas like Gaza City, Shuja’iyya, and Khan Yunis could result in thousands more casualties.
Haaretz columnist Amos Harel warns this open-ended escalation is politically motivated and may collapse into a quagmire with no clear victory, exacerbating Gaza’s humanitarian disaster while draining Israel’s military and economy.
Maariv noted that Israel’s army is not suited for sustained urban warfare involving ambushes, tunnel traps, and constant street-level combat. Holding territory in Gaza would also require a yet-undefined civilian or military governance mechanism.
Internal Strain and Military Gaps
Estimates suggest 60,000–80,000 soldiers would be needed to occupy Gaza fully. Israel is already recalling reserve forces, highlighting a shortfall of over 10,000 regular troops. Prolonged service is straining morale, increasing social tension, and impacting Israel’s economic stability.
For comparison, Israel used around 80,000 troops to invade southern Lebanon in 1982—a region less populated than Gaza, which now holds over 2.2 million people in just 365 square kilometers.
According to Globes, Israel’s Gaza operation costs roughly $80 million per day. A prolonged occupation could add $10 to $15 billion annually, further deepening budget deficits, raising insurance premiums, deterring investment, and possibly triggering a credit downgrade.
Conclusion
Netanyahu’s vision of a full Gaza occupation is laden with military, economic, and humanitarian risks. Beyond battlefield strategy, it reflects a political gamble with unpredictable outcomes—one that could deepen Israel’s quagmire in Gaza while failing to achieve its declared goals.
The question now is not just whether Israel can occupy Gaza, but whether it can afford the cost of staying there.
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