Israel’s security establishment currently assesses that the likelihood of a broad escalation with Iran is not high, but it is nevertheless preparing for the possibility of a limited Iranian response to the explosions in the Ali al-Taher Heights in Lebanon, or for Tehran to initiate an attack on Tel Aviv as it faces continued US attacks.
At the same time, the Israeli occupation army is preparing for several possible days of fighting on the northern front, while also anticipating developments in the occupied West Bank and Gaza.
Part of the heightened alert is linked to the Jewish holiday period, including the Jewish New Year, which begins on Friday evening and continues into Saturday. Israel routinely increases its readiness during Jewish holidays over fears of being caught by surprise.
Hebrew-language reports quoted military officials as saying: “Iran has no reason to intervene in what is happening in Lebanon, and if Iran intervenes and responds, it will quickly receive a severe response that we have prepared in advance.”
The warning is consistent with a series of threats issued by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Israel Katz, including statements made on Thursday.
Katz said: “An Iranian attack on Israel will free us from every restraint. We will strike all infrastructure, including energy infrastructure, and return Iran to the Stone Age and darkness.”
Katz also claimed there were “indications we are seeing that the heavy economic pressure Iran is experiencing, and fears of an uprising and the fall of the regime, may push it towards desperate steps”.
He added that “Israel does not intend to withdraw from the security zone in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed and the threat to residents of the Galilee is removed”.
Iran Remains a Primary Israeli Military Front
The Israeli occupation army continues to regard Iran as a principal military front and allocates resources and capabilities accordingly.
According to a report published on Friday by the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth, the stronger the economic pressure and restrictions imposed on Iran by the United States become, the greater the risk that Tehran may attempt to redirect fire towards Israel.
However, neither Israeli Military Intelligence nor the air force has identified any indication, at this stage, that Iran’s leadership has decided to directly attack Israel. Israeli officials believe the deterrence established during previous rounds of confrontation remains in effect.
Israeli security officials believe Iranian missile launches towards US bases in Jordan, close to the border with the 1948 occupied Palestinian territories, are intended to provoke Israel and demonstrate that Iran still possesses missiles capable of reaching it.
According to those officials, this assessment is behind the repeated severe warnings issued by Netanyahu and Katz.
Israel has also made clear that its target bank is prepared and that any spillover of fire towards it would trigger an Israeli response. The occupation army says it is prepared both defensively and offensively.
It is also monitoring the movements and operations of Yemen’s Ansar Allah movement, commonly known as the Houthis, amid developments in Yemen, although Israeli security officials currently believe the group is deterred.
Friction Could Pull Israel Back Into Direct Confrontation
According to Haaretz, the Israeli occupation army believes frustration is growing within the Iranian leadership and may soon manifest itself in attempts to increase military friction with the United States, potentially drawing Israel back into the confrontation.
Against the backdrop of regional developments, the Israeli military conducted a major General Staff-level exercise at the beginning of the week designed to test a multi-front war scenario.
The exercise was conducted without advance notice, with only a small number of officers, along with Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, aware beforehand of its timing.
Haaretz described the scenarios practised during the exercise as “extreme”.
They included a surprise Hamas attack from the Gaza Strip despite its limited military capabilities, bombing operations on the Israeli home front, and simultaneous friction with Iran and Hezbollah.
The timing was chosen because Israel and its military believe they are entering a sensitive period in which military tensions could be negatively affected by internal political tensions ahead of the Knesset general election scheduled for 27 October.
The Israeli military also traditionally considers September and October periods of heightened warning.
Haaretz military analyst Amos Harel noted that confrontations erupting during the Tishrei Jewish holiday period have not been rare.
Among the examples he cited were the 1973 Yom Kippur War, the 2023 Simchat Torah attack, referring to Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, the Second Intifada, which began on the eve of the Jewish New Year in 2000, and a wave of Palestinian attacks in the occupied West Bank in early October 2015.
Unusually High Alert in the West Bank
While Israel’s security establishment closely monitors Iran and continues its operations in Lebanon, the occupation army is also preparing for what it considers a possible threat from Gaza, despite having no Israeli evidence that such a threat currently exists.
The concern centres on fibre-optic drones.
In the occupied West Bank, meanwhile, the Israeli military is maintaining an unusually high state of alert.
The occupation army controls 63 per cent of the Gaza Strip while continuing its attacks and massacres there.
Yedioth Ahronoth reported that the Israeli Southern Command is seriously preparing for scenarios involving attacks against Israeli targets during the Jewish holiday period, including spontaneous attacks on military positions deep inside Gaza or roadside explosive devices.
The Southern Command has also begun acquiring equipment and deploying protective netting on military vehicles as a precaution against fibre-optic drones.
Although no such threat has yet emerged from Gaza, the Israeli military is incorporating the scenario into lessons learned from the northern front and is preparing in advance for the possibility that the tactic could spread south.
In the occupied West Bank, Yedioth Ahronoth described the alert level among Israeli forces as “unusual in its intensity”.
Israel has deployed 26 battalions, including 14 regular battalions.
In addition to the forces already deployed, an additional division announced by Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir has completed its preparations and can be called into action within a matter of hours.
The occupation army says it is primarily concerned about infiltration operations into settlements, shootings on major roads, or a rapid escalation.
Under these pretexts, Israeli forces have carried out a large-scale arrest campaign across the occupied West Bank in recent days.
