As the third anniversary of the aggressive war launched by the Israeli occupation across several regional fronts, further disappointing outcomes are emerging, particularly the military’s inability to rebuild and retain its personnel. With no decisive decisions from the political leadership, Israel is entering the fourth year of war profoundly unprepared.
Nir Dvori, military affairs editor at Israel’s Channel 12, said Israel is entering the fourth year of a multi-front war having achieved only one of its stated combat objectives: the return of the captives.
All other objectives remain unfulfilled, he said, while every major front remains open, including Gaza, Lebanon, Iran and Syria.
According to Dvori, Israel’s greatest challenge is now to bring the war to an end and reach agreements or security understandings on each front.
Iran: Israel’s Influence Remains Limited
Dvori wrote that Israel’s capabilities and responsibilities differ considerably from one front to another.
Beginning with Iran, he said developments there depend largely on US President Donald Trump and how he manages and leads the war, leaving Israel with very limited influence over the issue.
On other fronts, however, Israel has significantly greater influence and greater capacity to bring the fighting to an end through agreements.
Gaza and Lebanon: Decisions Require Political Courage
The second front concerns Gaza and Lebanon.
Although military operations have already taken place in both arenas, Dvori argued that the next stage depends on two factors: a willingness to make concessions and the courage of the political leadership.
The question, he said, is whether the current Israeli leadership, or whichever leadership emerges after the elections, will be capable of taking steps that may at times be unpopular but are considered necessary for Israel’s security.
Under any agreement reached on either front, Israel would be required to ensure the security of settlements close to the border fence, whether near Gaza or Lebanon. Dvori said the state has so far failed to take supporting measures for those communities.
The West Bank: A Powder Keg Without an Alternative
The third challenge is the escalating situation in the occupied West Bank.
Unlike the other fronts, Dvori said the current government is attempting to manage the conflict without taking major decisions that would be politically inconvenient.
On one hand, it is taking measures aimed at dismantling the Palestinian Authority. On the other, it continues to keep the Authority in a state of reconstruction.
Dvori warned that the consequences of the Palestinian Authority collapsing in the absence of any alternative would amount to the explosion of “the barrel of explosives we are sitting on”.
He also acknowledged that acts of terrorism committed by settlers against Palestinians are causing serious internal damage to Israel while further harming its image internationally.
“The position of the United States and Europe towards us is directly affected by this,” he said.
Regional Alliances Under Pressure
The fourth front, according to Dvori, concerns Israel’s network of alliances.
In recent years, the Israeli military has pursued a policy of military diplomacy through joint exercises with air and naval forces across the region.
Israel established partnerships with countries including Greece and Cyprus, as well as Arab states and Gulf countries.
Dvori said these relationships became evident during campaigns against Iran, when those states worked alongside Israel and provided support, particularly in air defence and other areas.
Preserving and Expanding the Abraham Accords
The fifth challenge is maintaining, developing and expanding those alliances within the framework of the Abraham Accords.
Dvori described this as a major challenge because recent US policies have damaged confidence among Washington’s Gulf allies.
He said Gulf states had been disappointed by Trump’s recent moves, potentially making it more difficult for them to maintain the close diplomatic relations with Israel that it hopes to preserve.
Rebuilding the Israeli Military
The sixth challenge concerns rebuilding the Israeli military itself.
Dvori said the process has several dimensions, beginning with closing active combat fronts, renewing depleted forces, restoring military readiness, returning troops to regular training and preparing the army for the possibility of renewed fighting.
The process is also linked to how many troops must remain deployed along the borders or in the occupied West Bank, and whether those commitments will leave the military with sufficient capacity to conduct training and restore operational fitness among both regular and reserve forces.
Manpower and the Haredi Exemption
Israel’s efforts to rebuild its military, preserve its personnel and maintain a high level of operational capability are also being undermined, according to Dvori, by the government’s conduct towards the army.
He pointed specifically to government efforts to exempt Haredi Jews from military service, describing the issue as something that could be regarded as a “political scandal”.
Taken together, the seven military challenges confronting the Israeli occupation army point to mounting and increasingly complex pressures.
After three years of war, there are still no clear signs that Israel is approaching the achievement of its stated objectives, nor is it expected to achieve them during the remainder of the current government’s term.
The result, according to this assessment, is a sweeping failure after three years of multi-front warfare, acknowledged within Israel’s own military and political establishment.
