Retired Israeli major general and military commentator for Maariv, Yisrael Ziv, has warned that Israel could find itself facing a difficult regional equation as nuclear cooperation between Saudi Arabia and the United States advances while Riyadh moves further away from normalising relations with Tel Aviv.
Ziv argued that the continuation of the war without a political horizon has hardened Saudi Arabia’s position towards Israel.
In an article published by Maariv under the headline, “Saudi Arabia Is No Longer Waiting for Israel, the Price Could Be Heavy”, Ziv said Riyadh is now making the establishment of a Palestinian state a condition for normalisation with Israel, while the civil nuclear agreement between Saudi Arabia and Washington continues to move forward.
According to his assessment, this could leave Israel outside any agreement with Riyadh while the Saudi nuclear programme continues to develop.
Saudi Arabia Holds Firm on Palestinian Statehood
Ziv said US President Donald Trump referred the peaceful nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia to Congress this week, while reiterating that the agreement would not enter into force unless the Kingdom normalised relations with Israel and joined the Abraham Accords.
However, Ziv noted that the Saudi response was clear. Riyadh continues to insist that it will not establish relations with Israel without the creation of an independent Palestinian state along the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital.
The military commentator said the Saudi position demonstrates, firstly, that Riyadh does not regard American demands as binding orders.
He explained that the normalisation condition was not part of the original text of the agreement, but was added later following an Israeli objection.
Ziv added that Saudi Arabia interpreted the move more as a pressure tactic than as a fixed policy.
He argued that Riyadh’s willingness to publicly reject the US condition reflects its assessment of the regional balance of power, particularly in light of the Trump administration’s involvement in the Iranian file and the resulting costs borne by Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region.
War Has Hardened Riyadh’s Position
According to Ziv, the war did not push Saudi Arabia to soften its position towards Israel. Instead, it made Riyadh’s stance more stringent.
He said Saudi Arabia had previously been satisfied with references to a political horizon or an “irreversible path”, whereas it is now demanding clearer and more concrete conditions.
Ziv described this as political pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and a direct strengthening of the Palestinian Authority’s position, which, in his assessment, also represents an indirect gain for Hamas.
Nuclear Agreement Raises Strategic Concerns for Israel
Ziv said the most dangerous contradiction for Israel lies in the nuclear agreement itself.
The agreement has now reached Congress and could enter into force within 90 days of congressional consideration unless both the House of Representatives and the Senate reject it.
According to Ziv, the agreement does not prevent Saudi Arabia from enriching uranium or reprocessing nuclear fuel, unlike what he described as the “gold standard” adopted by the United Arab Emirates in its 2009 nuclear agreement.
He warned that Israel could therefore end up with what he described as “the worst of both halves”: an advancing Saudi nuclear programme with the possibility of uranium enrichment, but without the normalisation Israel had been counting on and without the leverage that was expected to push Riyadh into joining the Abraham Accords.
Ziv: Tactical Gains Have Become Strategic Failure
Ziv argued that these developments are, from his perspective, the result of three years of war.
He said the war had not improved Israel’s strategic position, but had instead produced deeper political isolation, weakened the influence of its ally in the White House, allowed Hamas and Hezbollah to rebuild their strength, and unified Arab positions around conditions that are more stringent than those that existed before the war.
Ziv said Israel’s “tactical achievements” during the war ultimately accumulated into what he described as a “complete strategic failure”.
He concluded that the central issue is not Saudi Arabia itself, but Israel.
According to Ziv, Riyadh has clearly defined the price Israel is paying for continuing the war without a political horizon, and that cost is already becoming visible across the regional arena.
He added that anyone who believed Israel could continue achieving military victories without paying a political price received a clear message this week from a party that could have become an ally, but instead chose to move further away.
