A report by Türkiye Today said the defence agreement between Türkiye, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia has raised significant concern in Israel, particularly amid escalating tensions with Türkiye in Syria.
The report said the Israeli strike on Abu al-Duhur Air Base in northwestern Syria came as part of an effort to prevent a Turkish military deployment in the area, amid growing competition for influence in Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government.
Former Pakistan Air Force deputy chief and former Pakistani ambassador to Syria, Air Marshal Saeed Khan, said Israel is concerned about Turkish efforts to rebuild Syria’s military capabilities, noting that Israeli forces have moved closer to Damascus in recent months.
Analysts have pointed out that the wording of the trilateral defence agreement remains vague and open to interpretation. The agreement has also not yet completed the parliamentary process in Türkiye, giving Pakistan considerable room for manoeuvre.
Competition for Influence in Syria
Khan said a direct conflict between Türkiye and Israel may not occur, but competition between the two sides in Syria is likely to continue.
“On Syrian territory, they will continue to compete for influence, as Israel is concerned about Türkiye’s efforts to help Syria rebuild its defence forces because it currently lacks a regular army, air force or navy,” he said.
Khan added that although “Türkiye and Israel do not share a border, Israel has occupied the Golan Heights from Syria since 1967, and once the conflict with Iran began, it moved closer to Damascus through Mount Hermon and is now around 15 to 20 kilometres away.”
Could Collective Defence Be Activated?
Khan said the agreement could “deter Israel from aggression in this region, as it believes first in collective deterrence and, if that fails, collective defence.”
He added: “If Israel attacks Türkiye, collective defence would be activated, and it would be very difficult for Pakistan and Saudi Arabia to refuse military assistance.”
He continued that if “more countries such as Syria, Jordan and Lebanon join, Israel would face the combined military capabilities of several Islamic countries.”
Syria’s Potential Entry Could Shift the Equation
The newspaper also cited analysts noting that Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani was recently in Islamabad.
According to the report, if Syria were to join the Mecca Agreement, it could represent a “major shift” by placing Syria in direct alignment with Türkiye in the Syrian theatre.
