The Financial Times has examined the growing overlap between regional conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East and Asia, warning that the emergence of an “axis of adversaries” comprising Russia, China, Iran and North Korea could transform a series of separate wars into a wider global confrontation.
The British newspaper said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had triggered Europe’s deadliest war since 1945, while the conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel had directly drawn in 12 Middle Eastern countries, making it the region’s broadest war in decades.
In East Asia, North Korea is rapidly expanding its military capabilities and has abandoned its stated objective of peaceful reunification with the South. China, meanwhile, has intensified naval exercises around Taiwan, including drills simulating the severing of the island’s supply lines.
Regional Wars Begin to Overlap
The newspaper said regional conflicts across Europe, the Middle East and Asia were increasingly intersecting.
Iran recently announced that Ukraine had sunk one of its commercial vessels in the Caspian Sea, killing a sailor. Kyiv acknowledged carrying out the strikes, saying the targets were military cargo ships travelling towards Russia.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also warned that North Korea is preparing to deploy an additional 30,000 troops to support Russia’s war.
When the first contingent of North Korean forces reached the front line in 2024, Zelenskyy described the deployment as “the first step towards a world war”. With Ukrainian forces now directly confronting Iran, the newspaper argued that the second step may already have been taken.
The Features of a World War
The Financial Times said the First and Second World Wars were characterised by conflicts spanning multiple continents, clearly defined global alliances and direct confrontation between major powers.
Current conflicts meet some of these criteria, it said, as they now extend across Europe, Asia and Africa amid deepening cooperation between Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, collectively described as the “axis of adversaries”.
However, US President Donald Trump’s frequently hostile posture towards Washington’s traditional allies, combined with Israel’s growing status as a pariah state across Europe and parts of the Gulf, has made it more difficult to establish a unified bloc capable of confronting the anti-American alignment.
Ukraine’s Calculations in Confronting Iran
The newspaper said Ukraine’s decision to confront Iran may represent an attempt to build a more coherent coalition against this axis.
Although the precise details of the incidents in the Caspian Sea remain unclear, Kyiv has strong reasons to retaliate against Iran, which has supplied Russia with Shahed drones that have killed large numbers of Ukrainians.
Ukraine may also see an opportunity to improve relations with the Trump administration by highlighting the extent to which Russia has supported Iran in its confrontation with the United States.
Zelenskyy has already accused Moscow of providing intelligence used by Tehran to target American bases and forces. Disrupting the transport of Iranian goods and oil to Russia through the Caspian Sea could also support US efforts aimed at bringing about the collapse of Iran’s economy.
North Korean and Chinese Support
The newspaper added that Ukrainians believe they are gradually gaining an advantage in their war with Russia, although the arrival of additional North Korean troops would clearly benefit Russian President Vladimir Putin.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has strong incentives to support the Kremlin, given Moscow’s technological assistance to Pyongyang and its role in helping North Korea break out of its economic and diplomatic isolation.
Chinese support for Russia and Iran appears more discreet but remains highly significant.
Thomas Wright, a former senior director for strategic planning in the Biden administration, said China had helped Russia rapidly rebuild its military capabilities by supplying essential technologies and cooperating in drone production.
He added that Beijing had also provided Iran with dual-use goods, including rocket fuel and commercial satellite imagery.
Shared Goals Without a Formal Alliance
Although the countries within the “axis of adversaries” are not bound by a formal alliance, they share objectives that include weakening US influence and challenging regional dominance.
China also seeks to displace the United States as the world’s leading superpower, reflecting what academic Graham Allison has described as the “Thucydides Trap”, a concept also discussed by Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The term refers to the danger that conflict may emerge when a rising power threatens to replace an established global power.
The newspaper concluded that while Washington and Beijing continue attempting to prevent their rivalry from escalating into direct confrontation, those efforts do not eliminate the risk of another world war.
The lessons of the 20th century, it said, demonstrate that regional conflicts and miscalculations by major powers can produce devastating global consequences.
