Despite years of warnings from US intelligence agencies about the possibility of Iranian attacks on American soil, such a scenario has never materialised, even during periods of heightened tensions. This has raised questions about why such attacks have not occurred.
In a report by journalist Anna Mulrine Grobe, The Christian Science Monitor examined the issue, noting that warnings intensified following US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities last year and again after the outbreak of the US Israeli war against Iran this year. The US counterterrorism strategy released by the administration of President Donald Trump in May described Iran and its allied groups as “the greatest threat to the United States from the Middle East.”
According to the report, the renewed warnings also coincided with claims that Israel had informed Washington of an alleged Iranian plot to assassinate Trump.
Operational Challenges
The report explains that security experts believe the absence of an attack inside the United States does not necessarily indicate a lack of intent by Iran, but rather reflects the immense difficulty of carrying out such an operation.
Daniel Byman, Director of the Warfare, Irregular Threats and Terrorism Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that any attack would require a sophisticated network involving financing, coordination and the covert movement of operatives into the United States while avoiding extensive security monitoring. Each stage of such an operation carries significant risks.
Byman also argued that Iran’s leadership has acted with political pragmatism, recognising that a major attack inside the United States could unite American public opinion behind a war that might otherwise have lacked broad domestic support, making such an operation contrary to Iran’s strategic interests.
Previous Plots and Security Measures
The report revisits a plot disrupted by US authorities in 2011 that allegedly targeted the Saudi ambassador in Washington.
It also refers to charges brought by US authorities in May against a member of the Iran backed Kata’ib Hezbollah group, accused of planning attacks on Jewish places of worship in Los Angeles, Arizona and New York. According to the report, the alleged plot was foiled after the FBI infiltrated the network using an undercover informant.
The report states that the successful disruption of these alleged plots reflects the significant development of US counterterrorism capabilities, which now rely heavily on intelligence cooperation, continuous surveillance, infiltration of extremist networks and information provided by members of migrant communities, many of whom reject involvement in acts of violence.
Concerns Over Future Intelligence Capabilities
Despite these successes, the report notes growing concerns among analysts that recent reductions in staffing at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence could affect the effectiveness of future counterterrorism efforts.
Lawmakers from both the Republican and Democratic parties have reportedly warned that reductions in personnel could weaken US national security.
The Christian Science Monitor concludes that Iran’s decision not to carry out attacks inside the United States appears to reflect a combination of American security deterrence and Iranian political calculations. However, the report suggests that maintaining this balance will depend on Washington’s ability to preserve the readiness and effectiveness of its intelligence agencies.
