Nearly one thousand days after the outbreak of the war, there is growing consensus across Israel’s political and security establishment that the conflict has not been decisively resolved on any front. Despite overwhelming military force, backed and supported by the United States, Israel has failed to secure a decisive victory or eliminate the resistance movements it sought to defeat.
Instead, the country has become entrenched in a prolonged and costly war of attrition that has deepened political divisions, strained Israeli society and weakened the government’s electoral prospects. At the same time, Israel’s international standing has declined, its influence within official American institutions has diminished, and public support abroad continues to erode. Relations between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump are also no longer viewed as strong as they were following Trump’s return to office.
Military Superiority Without Strategic Success
More than one thousand days into the conflict, Netanyahu’s government has yet to convert its military superiority and close alliance with Washington into lasting strategic or political gains. None of the major fronts, including Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, have been conclusively resolved, leaving Israel facing an increasingly complex political and security landscape.
This has raised a fundamental question within Israeli political circles. Will Netanyahu’s government attempt to escape its strategic crisis by escalating military operations once again, or will it turn towards diplomacy and pursue more realistic political arrangements for the post war period?
In Gaza, there is little indication that Israel can achieve through negotiations what it failed to accomplish militarily. A political solution remains elusive, while the confrontation with Lebanon continues without a definitive conclusion, leaving the possibility of renewed fighting ever present.
Likewise, the Israeli and American military campaign against Iran has not produced clear political outcomes despite the ceasefire, leaving uncertainty over the longer term consequences.
Domestic Pressures Continue to Mount
Inside Israel, the prolonged conflict has placed enormous strain on both the military and society.
Political divisions have intensified over numerous issues, from demands for an official inquiry into the events of 7 October to disputes surrounding military conscription legislation as elections draw closer. Public confidence in key state institutions, including the government, military, police and judiciary, has fallen sharply.
Many observers argue that these divisions have surpassed even the intense political polarisation that preceded Operation Al Aqsa Flood.
Despite these challenges, Netanyahu and his governing coalition continue to present the war as a series of unprecedented achievements that, in their view, require completion before victory can be declared.
Completing the War Before the Polls
According to the analysis, Netanyahu continues to view renewed military escalation as a pathway towards achieving what he describes as “absolute victory”. Such a strategy could strengthen his electoral position after support for his coalition declined due to the absence of a decisive military outcome.
This position was recently echoed by former National Security Council head Meir Ben Shabbat, a close ally of Netanyahu, who argued that Israel should return to full scale military operations in Gaza.
Ben Shabbat maintained that Israel remains far from defeating what he described as the enemy that initiated the conflict. He also suggested persuading the United States not to move towards reconstruction efforts before another high intensity military campaign is launched.
According to his assessment, dismantling the Palestinian resistance cannot be achieved without full military control over Gaza and its population.
War or Political Settlement?
While Netanyahu and members of his coalition continue to advocate an open ended military campaign under the banner of decisive victory, a growing number of Israeli research institutions and policy analysts argue that Israel now faces a strategic deadlock that cannot be resolved through military force alone.
Instead, they contend that diplomacy offers the only realistic exit from the current crisis.
Several Israeli researchers believe the government’s approach is driven primarily by Netanyahu’s short term electoral calculations rather than any broader regional strategy. They argue he has shown little interest in pursuing political initiatives that could deliver long term diplomatic or economic gains.
Among the proposals discussed is expanding the Abraham Accords, but only if Israel agrees to end the war across all fronts, withdraw from occupied territories and engage in comprehensive regional political processes.
Supporters of this approach argue such agreements could ultimately provide Israel with greater strategic benefits than continued military campaigns.
Election Calculations May Shape the Next Phase
The analysis concludes that Netanyahu is unlikely to embrace diplomatic alternatives before the Israeli elections scheduled for October.
Any meaningful political settlement could undermine his standing among his core support base, particularly within the far right, making military escalation a more attractive political option.
Until the elections, Netanyahu is expected to prioritise raising military pressure across multiple fronts.
The report argues he will seek to convince President Donald Trump during their next White House meeting to abandon the current agreement with Iran by pointing to allegations that Tehran has failed to comply with its commitments. He is also expected to press for renewed military action aimed at toppling the Iranian government.
At the same time, Netanyahu is likely to seek American approval to widen Israeli military operations in Lebanon, including expanding attacks into Beirut’s southern suburbs.
Should Trump remain committed to pursuing diplomacy alongside limited military pressure on Iran, the analysis suggests Netanyahu will instead intensify efforts to secure US backing for a renewed large scale offensive in Gaza under the stated objective of disarming Palestinian factions and defeating the resistance.
