Day after day, Israel continues to demonstrate its intention to overturn the ceasefire agreement in Gaza and potentially return to full scale war if it receives American approval to do so. According to analysts, Israel has reduced the entire framework of President Donald Trump’s plan to a single objective: the disarmament of the Palestinian resistance.
Since the agreement, brokered by the United States, came into effect in October 2025, Israel has repeatedly violated its terms and refused to fulfil its obligations. At the same time, it has expanded its military presence inside Gaza and recently announced plans to increase that presence even further.
In the months following the agreement, Israeli forces killed hundreds of Palestinians and carried out hundreds of attacks across various parts of the Gaza Strip. These developments prompted an independent United Nations committee to state that the continued deliberate killing of children in Gaza reinforces evidence of genocidal intent.
The violations have not been limited to military attacks. Israel’s National Security Council has resumed discussions on the displacement of Gaza’s population under the label of “voluntary migration”. Meanwhile, the newspaper Haaretz cited sources suggesting that these plans may be linked to a secret understanding between US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Emptying the Agreement of Its Substance
While Israel continues to violate the ceasefire and undermine its foundations, Palestinian resistance factions recently responded positively to a third proposal presented by Nikolay Mladenov, the Executive Director of the Gaza Peace Council.
According to analysts, Mladenov’s proposals largely reflect Israeli positions and priorities.
However, Israel has not responded to the revised proposal. Reports instead suggest that it is preparing a new initiative that would effectively return negotiations to square one.
Israeli affairs expert Dr Mohanad Mustafa said this reflects Israel’s intention to “evaporate the agreement” and return to military operations in Gaza if it secures a green light from Washington.
Speaking on a political affairs programme, Mustafa argued that Israel has normalised its violations and transformed them into part of the status quo because it views them as a preliminary stage before resuming war in the Strip.
According to Mustafa, Israel has narrowed the entire agreement to one issue: the disarmament of the Islamic Resistance Movement, Hamas. All other aspects of the agreement have been treated as secondary.
He added that while the United States has largely adopted Israel’s narrative on this issue, Washington continues to oppose a return to full scale war.
Mustafa argued that Israel’s primary objective in agreeing to the ceasefire was the recovery of its captives. Now that this objective has largely been addressed, Israel seeks to resume military operations, but remains constrained by American opposition.
“Israel is not concerned with international pressure and will not respond to it unless that pressure comes from the United States,” he said.
Resistance Facing Difficult Choices
According to political analyst Dr Iyad al-Qarra, the Palestinian resistance currently finds itself in a difficult position and has little option but to continue engaging positively with the proposals presented by Mladenov, despite viewing them as fundamentally aligned with Israeli interests.
Al-Qarra noted that whenever Palestinian factions respond positively to such proposals, Israel is often the side that rejects them.
He also stated that Hamas has not categorically rejected discussions regarding its weapons. Instead, it proposed that any such issue be addressed within a broader national framework.
At the same time, Hamas continues to place responsibility on mediators and guarantors regarding Israeli violations, urging them to address the Gaza file with the same seriousness shown in dealing with developments in Lebanon.
Expanding Israeli Control
Israel has announced that it now controls approximately 70 per cent of Gaza’s territory.
According to Hamas spokesperson Hazem Qassem, this expansion represents clear evidence of Israel’s violation of the ceasefire agreement.
He further argued that ongoing military operations, continued border closures, the movement of the western “yellow line”, and what he described as collective punishment imposed on Gaza’s population all demonstrate Israel’s intention to destroy the agreement.
Qassem said these actions place both the international community and the guarantors of the ceasefire before their responsibilities.
Confrontation May Become Unavoidable
Given what he described as Israel’s clear effort to dismantle the agreement, Al-Qarra believes the resistance may eventually find itself compelled to respond militarily.
“The resistance may find itself forced to confront this escalation, whatever the consequences may be,” he said.
Differing Views from Washington
A different perspective was offered by former US State Department official Thomas Warrick.
Warrick argued that Mladenov and members of the Gaza Peace Council attempted to persuade Hamas to accept a disarmament plan, but that the movement rejected several draft proposals presented during negotiations.
At the same time, he acknowledged that Israel has repeatedly delayed and violated the agreement while moving between different proposals.
According to Warrick, the agreement does not establish a phased implementation process. Therefore, one party should not condition its obligations on actions that must first be taken by the other side.
Instead, he argued, both sides should implement the agreement in full and simultaneously.
Warrick also attributed the limited American response to Israeli actions in Gaza to the Trump administration’s focus on the conflict with Iran.
Nevertheless, he expressed hope that Washington would devote greater attention to Gaza in the coming period, noting that American officials had previously stressed the importance of finding a path forward for the agreement.
A Fragile Ceasefire Under Pressure
As Israeli military operations continue, settlement proposals stall, and accusations of repeated violations mount, the future of the Gaza ceasefire remains uncertain.
The central question is no longer whether Israel is undermining the agreement, but what options remain available to the Palestinian resistance if diplomatic efforts continue to fail.
