A report published by the French newspaper Le Monde has highlighted how the American-Israeli war against Iran has reinforced the country’s internal cohesion and strengthened its political and security structures.
According to the newspaper, Donald Trump believed it would be possible to bring down the Iranian system. Instead, the war conducted in coordination with Israel has helped consolidate power around Iran’s military and security institutions.
The report noted that the Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988) was one of the most significant factors in solidifying the foundations of the young Islamic Republic. In the years following the 1979 revolution, the conflict enabled the government to strengthen internal unity, marginalise and gradually eliminate opponents, mobilise broad segments of society around a national and revolutionary project, and suppress dissent under the pretext of wartime necessity and emergency conditions.
According to Le Monde, the same interpretation can be applied to the recent war launched by Israel and the United States against Iran beginning on 28 February, before a fragile ceasefire was reached on 8 April. While many observers, including US President Donald Trump, expected the escalation to weaken the Islamic Republic or even accelerate its collapse, the outcome moved in the opposite direction.
Instead, the conflict helped reunify the system’s core power structures around its security and military institutions, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Leadership Consolidation
The newspaper reported that Mojtaba Khamenei, 55, was appointed head of the Islamic Republic only days after the death of his father, former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed during the US-Israeli bombardment on 28 February. The transition occurred rapidly and without significant opposition.
Under normal circumstances, the succession process would likely have involved prolonged negotiations and intense competition among various factions. However, the wartime environment, combined with a deep internal legitimacy crisis following civilian massacres in January and fears of fragmentation among the ruling elite, pushed the leadership to prioritise stability and cohesion over political openness.
For nearly a decade, several other names had been discussed as potential successors to Ali Khamenei, while some had even proposed replacing the position of Supreme Leader with a collective leadership council. The war dramatically narrowed the space for such debates and reduced the prospects of political transformation.
As a result, the selection of Mojtaba Khamenei was presented as part of a strategy aimed at reinforcing the system’s core structure and ensuring continuity.
Hormuz Re-emerges as a Strategic Asset
The report stated that the war forced Iranian authorities to reassess the strategic significance of the Strait of Hormuz.
Following the American-Israeli strikes and Tehran’s effective closure of the waterway after the outbreak of war, Iranian officials recognised that control over the strait provides a powerful geopolitical leverage point.
Before the conflict, more than 20 per cent of global oil, gas, and fertiliser trade passed through Hormuz. By demonstrating its ability to disrupt this vital route using relatively limited means, including drones, naval monitoring, and sea mines, Iran regained a measure of strategic confidence despite sanctions and international isolation.
Despite its military superiority, the United States has not yet succeeded in compelling Tehran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Negotiations aimed at securing a permanent ceasefire, restoring normal maritime traffic, and resolving the issue of 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 per cent remain stalled with little visible progress.
At the same time, Tehran appears to view itself as operating from a position of strength and is unwilling to make major concessions at this stage.
A New Regional Reality
According to Le Monde, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has returned Iran to the centre of regional diplomacy, despite the fact that Tehran did not exempt Gulf states hosting American military bases from its retaliatory strikes.
Geography, the report argued, has once again asserted its strategic weight. Several Gulf monarchies that rely on the strait to export hydrocarbons now find themselves compelled to adapt to Iranian influence and engage in negotiations with Tehran.
Talks between Oman and Iran reflect this emerging reality. According to repeated warnings from the White House and the US Treasury Department directed at Muscat, Washington is clearly concerned about the possibility of cooperation between Oman and Iran regarding a transit rights or passage fee arrangement in the strait.
Bloomberg also reported that Qatar opposes the imposition of permanent navigation taxes in Hormuz but does not rule out the possibility of temporary fees that would facilitate the restoration of normal commercial shipping.
Internal Repression and Public Mobilisation
The newspaper noted that Iranian society, already exhausted economically and psychologically by a devastating war and accompanying massacres, currently lacks the capacity to mount a significant challenge to the authorities.
Almost daily, Iranians receive reports of executions involving political prisoners. The United Nations Special Rapporteur on Iran, Mai Sato, has stated that these executions, which are used to “spread fear throughout society and suppress protests”, have increased significantly since the outbreak of war.
According to the report, at least 38 prisoners accused of offences such as “collaboration with the enemy” have been executed since 28 February. At the same time, arrests on espionage charges and property confiscations have also increased.
Meanwhile, the government has sought to project an image of strength and unity by organising daily public gatherings across Iranian cities since the start of the war. Participants raise slogans supporting the armed forces and the confrontation against Israel and the United States.
From Tehran’s perspective, these scenes serve as evidence of renewed national unity and a restoration of domestic legitimacy.
Economic Pressures Remain the Greatest Challenge
In its conclusion, Le Monde argued that, in the short term, the war appears to have strengthened the Islamic Republic rather than weakened it.
However, the most serious threat facing the system remains economic.
The continued impact of sanctions, the absence of any meaningful breakthrough with Washington, rising inflation, declining purchasing power, and increasing unemployment all have the potential to pose a deeper and more consequential challenge to the stability of the government than any external military pressure.
