Israeli forces remain largely stalled in southern Lebanon despite repeated attempts to advance, according to Lebanese military and strategic analyst Brigadier General Elias Farhat. He argues that Hezbollah’s operations have forced Israeli forces to reduce troop deployments at several military positions, restrict vehicle movement, and withdraw heavy tanks further inside occupied territory. In his assessment, Israel currently lacks a combat formation capable of expanding the territory it already occupies.
In an interview discussing military developments in southern Lebanon, ongoing negotiations, and the broader regional picture, Farhat provided his analysis of the battlefield and the impact of Hezbollah’s evolving tactics.
Why Fighting Continues Despite Ceasefire Discussions
While US President Donald Trump has spoken publicly about a ceasefire, Israeli air strikes and evacuation warnings continue across southern Lebanon.
Farhat argues that there is no direct connection between the military confrontation on the ground and the negotiations taking place in Washington. According to him, the conflict remains a battlefield contest between advancing Israeli forces and Hezbollah fighters defending Lebanese territory. Meanwhile, the Lebanese government delegation engaged in discussions with Washington does not treat Hezbollah as a party to those negotiations.
He believes Israel is using the diplomatic process to project an image of seeking peace while offering no concrete commitments regarding a ceasefire, withdrawal, or security arrangements. As a result, developments in Washington have had little impact on the reality of combat in southern Lebanon.
Farhat also noted that Trump’s ceasefire announcement lacked any implementation mechanism, failing to define monitoring structures, enforcement procedures, or even the specific ceasefire lines. Consequently, Israeli military operations continued, while Hezbollah stated it would be prepared to halt fire if Israeli attacks ceased.
Israel’s Ambition for a New Buffer Zone
Responding to statements by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding the creation of a new security zone, Farhat said Israel seeks to advance as far as its military capabilities allow.
He explained that the Litani River remains the most logical natural barrier for such a zone. Israeli forces pushed towards the river from the eastern sector approximately two months ago, advancing through areas between the Lebanese towns of Taybeh and Odaisseh and the occupied settlements of Margaliot and Misgav Am. After reaching the river, Israeli forces moved towards Zawtar al-Sharqiya and Yohmor al-Shaqif before halting their advance.
Farhat added that Israeli units later infiltrated the historic Beaufort Castle area. However, he stressed that Hezbollah did not use the site and remains an archaeological location under the authority of Lebanon’s Ministry of Culture and Directorate General of Antiquities.
Attempts to advance on other fronts, including Rashaf, Mansouri, and Hadatha, failed to produce meaningful gains, he said.
The Reality Behind the Bridge Construction Narrative
Farhat dismissed Israeli claims regarding the construction of six bridges intended to support military advances.
According to his account, the structures built near Zawtar were located in recreational areas rather than serving as key military crossing points. The major bridges used by military convoys remain Qasmiyeh in the west, Qaqaaiyat al-Jisr in the centre, and Khardali in the east.
He argued that the bridge announcements were largely directed at Israeli public opinion, designed to create the impression of continued military progress.
Hezbollah’s Fibre-Optic Drones Reshape the Battlefield
One of the most significant developments highlighted by Farhat is Hezbollah’s deployment of fibre-optic-controlled FPV drones.
He stated that these drones cannot be disrupted by the Trophy defence systems installed on Israeli tanks, systems specifically designed to counter anti-tank missiles. The effectiveness of these drones has forced Israeli forces to alter deployment patterns, reduce troop concentrations at military positions, and restrict vehicle movement.
Farhat pointed to reports published by Israeli media indicating that heavy tanks had been pulled back deeper into occupied territory following repeated successful strikes. In his view, Israeli forces currently lack sufficient combat formations to expand their control beyond existing positions.
He further argued that the territory currently occupied by Israel is unsuitable as a permanent buffer zone due to its complex terrain and densely populated areas. The Litani River remains the only viable long-term defensive line, but Israeli forces are still far from establishing control over it.
Beaufort Castle and Claims of Strategic Transformation
Farhat rejected Israeli attempts to portray operations around Beaufort Castle as a major strategic breakthrough.
He noted that Israeli officials themselves reportedly acknowledged to media outlets that they found neither fighters nor weapons at the site. Historically, the castle was occupied by Fatah until 1982, captured by Israeli forces following intense fighting, and later handed over to the Lebanese state after Israel’s withdrawal in 2000. Since then, it has remained an archaeological site rather than a military position.
According to Farhat, Israeli forces entered the area without engaging in combat and without facing resistance at the site itself. He argued that presenting the operation as a strategic turning point amounted to little more than a media campaign that Israeli journalists and former military officers quickly challenged.
He added that any attempt to reach and occupy the Litani River would require significant military resources and prolonged preparation. Based on current deployment levels, he believes such an objective could take years to achieve, making it unrealistic from both military and political perspectives.
Are Fibre-Optic Drones a New Deterrent?
Farhat distinguished between deterrence and battlefield effectiveness.
He rejected the idea that Hezbollah currently possesses strategic deterrence against Israel, noting that Israel maintains the region’s most powerful air force and continues to operate freely over Lebanon, conducting strikes from Beirut to the Bekaa Valley and southern Lebanon. Hezbollah lacks air defence systems capable of denying Israeli air superiority.
However, he described the fibre-optic FPV drones as a significant new battlefield weapon.
These commercially available quadcopters, typically priced between $300 and $500, can be modified to carry explosive payloads against personnel and vehicles. Hezbollah has reportedly equipped some with night-vision capabilities, allowing operations after dark. Their fibre-optic guidance systems make electronic jamming ineffective, contributing to their battlefield success.
Despite their effectiveness, Farhat cautioned that these drones alone cannot determine the outcome of the war. They remain vulnerable to small-arms fire if detected, although defending against large numbers of drones would require substantial manpower and continuous vigilance along the front.
Israel’s Search for Countermeasures
According to Farhat, Israel has allocated approximately $700 million towards developing solutions to counter the growing threat posed by FPV drones.
He also noted that a delegation from Israel’s ground forces command travelled to the United States to explore methods of combating these systems. Despite these efforts, Hezbollah continues to employ the drones successfully and inflict losses on Israeli forces.
Why Were These Drones Not Used Earlier?
Farhat explained that previous conflicts saw the use of fixed-wing drones rather than the small FPV systems currently attracting attention.
He suggested that few anticipated the military potential of commercially available quadcopters, which are widely accessible and inexpensive. Their components can be purchased openly and modified for military purposes. If Hezbollah can manufacture and adapt such systems, he argued, other armed groups could potentially do the same.
He added that while Hezbollah has generally launched between 10 and 15 drones in a single day, large-scale swarm attacks involving hundreds of drones could pose a far greater threat. Most drones currently launched successfully reach their intended targets because operators can visually guide them using live camera feeds.
Has Southern Lebanon Become Part of US-Iran Negotiations?
Farhat believes Lebanon’s file was initially separate from negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
However, the situation changed when Netanyahu reportedly ordered strikes against Beirut and its southern suburbs. Iran responded by warning that attacks on Beirut could trigger retaliation against northern occupied Palestine. Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters reportedly issued warnings to residents in northern Israel, escalating regional tensions.
Tehran subsequently suspended negotiations with the United States and threatened a response, prompting what Farhat described as a tense conversation between Trump and Netanyahu. Following that exchange, Israeli air operations against Beirut and its southern suburbs ceased, although fighting continued in southern Lebanon.
No Progress in Washington Talks
Regarding the fourth round of negotiations in Washington, Farhat expressed little optimism.
He argued that there is no meaningful difference between the latest round and previous discussions. Lebanon continues to demand a ceasefire, while Israel remains unwilling to accept one. In his assessment, the United States is merely prolonging the process without producing tangible results.
